Brewers vs Cubs Picks, Player Props & Best Betting Lines (Aug 18)

• The Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers in the first game of a doubleheader on Monday afternoon
• The marquee pitching matchup features Brewers ace Freddy Peralta against the Cubs’ emerging right-hander Cade Horton
• See the Brewers vs Cubs picks, predictions, player props, and best available odds

The Milwaukee Brewers (78-45, 36-25 away, 58-61-4 O/U) travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Cubs (70-53, 38-23 home, 55-59-7 O/U) in the first game of a doubleheader on Monday, August 18. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 pm ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL. The matchup on the mound features a pair of formidable right-handers, with Freddy Peralta (14-5, 2.90 ERA) starting for the visitors and Cade Horton (7-3, 3.07 ERA) getting the ball for the home team. This marks the first meeting of a critical five-game series between the two NL Central foes.

The Brewers just saw their franchise-record 14-game win streak come to an end but still lead the Cubs by eight games for the NL Central lead. The Cubs hold the first NL Wild Card and have a 4.5-game cushion on a playoff spot.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Lines

The Brewers/Cubs odds project a tight game, with the Cubs installed as slight -118 home favorites and Brewers as -103 road underdogs. The moneyline implies that the market sees this game as nearly a toss-up, despite the Brewers’ superior record and recent form. The Cubs’ -118 odds translate to a 54.13% implied win probability, while the Brewers’ -102 odds equal a 50.74% chance.

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ML vs CHC Odds Movement

The betting market has seen significant movement since the lines opened. The moneyline initially favored the Cubs more heavily at -123, but has since shifted towards the Brewers, now sitting at -118, and potentially dropping further.

The total has also seen a noteworthy drop, opening at 8.5 runs and contracting to 8.0. This move is likely influenced by the quality of the starting pitching matchup, the forecast calling for wind blowing in at Wrigley Field, and potentially sharp money anticipating a pitcher’s duel.

This downward trend on the total counters to the heavy betting on the over in Monday’s MLB public betting splits, suggesting a classic sharp-vs-public divide.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

Milwaukee Brewers Batters vs Cade Horton

There is almost no matchup history between the Brewers batters and Chicago starter Cade Horton. Only Andrew Vaughn, acquired from the White Sox midseason, has seen Horton before, going 0-for-2.

Horton has been impressive, relying on a high-velocity fastball that averages 96.2 mph and a devastating slider that generates a 42% whiff rate.

He primarily attacks hitters up in the zone, which could play right into the hands of a Brewers lineup that features several hitters, like Jesús Sánchez, who excel against high fastballs.

Milwaukee’s offense is disciplined and ranks among the league’s best in wRC+ since July, so they’re unlikely to be overwhelmed by the rookie. The key will be whether Horton can command his secondary pitches to keep the aggressive Brewers hitters off balance.

Chicago Cubs Batters vs Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta has largely dominated the Cubs’ lineup throughout his career. Key hitters like Ian Happ (.063 average), Nico Hoerner (.192), and Seiya Suzuki (.095) have struggled mightily against him.

A few players have found cracks in the armor. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been exceptional in a small sample size, batting .556 with a 1.556 OPS. Michael Busch has shown impressive power with two home runs in just 13 at-bats. This history suggests that, while the Cubs offense may struggle as a whole, specific players could be targets for positive performances in the prop market.

Cubs vs Brewers Player Props

MLB player props as of August 18 at DraftKings.

For pitcher props, Peralta’s strikeout line of 5.5 is appealing. He has fanned 29 batters in his last 21 innings and boasts a strong history of punching out Cubs hitters, with 55 Ks in 158 career at-bats against the current roster. Given the Cubs’ recent offensive woes, the over (-135) is a solid look.

For the batters, Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 hits is heavily juiced but makes sense given his past success against Peralta. A more valuable play might be Michael Busch over 1.5 total bases (+135). Busch has shown power against Peralta with two home runs in his career.

Brewers vs Cubs Picks & Prediction

Freddy Peralta has been nothing short of brilliant lately, posting a 1.71 ERA with 29 strikeouts over his last 21 innings. His career numbers against the Cubs are stellar, and he should be able to navigate a Chicago lineup that’s in an offensive malaise, scoring just nine runs in their last series.

On the other side, Cade Horton has been a bright spot for the Cubs, with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts. However, he faces a monumental task against a Brewers offense that’s posted a 124 wRC+ since July 1, the best in baseball.

Several betting trends support the visiting Brewers. Milwaukee has been fantastic as an underdog, going 7-3 in their last ten games in that role. They have also had the Cubs’ number recently, winning three of the last four head-to-head meetings. While the Cubs have an excellent home record this season (38-21), their recent struggles against teams with winning records (4-7 in their last 11) are a cause for concern.

The Brewers’ offense is the key differentiator here. Even after their winning streak was snapped, this is a lineup that outscored opponents 119-52 over a 15-game stretch. They have the depth and power to challenge Horton. With Peralta on the mound to neutralize the struggling Cubs bats, the value lies with the road team. The moneyline offers a great price on the better team.

Picks:

• Milwaukee Brewers moneyline (-102)