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Brewers vs Dodgers Odds, Picks, and Predictions (Oct. 1)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Oct 1, 2021 · 6:24 AM PDT

Corey Seager and Mookie Betts celebrate by the dugout
Los Angeles Dodgers' Corey Seager, left, celebrates with Mookie Betts, center, and manager Dave Roberts after hitting a two-run home run during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres Wednesday, Sept. 29, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers are -220 moneyline favorites over the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday (October 1st, 10:10 pm ET)
  • LA will give the ball to Clayton Kershaw (10-8, 3.38 ERA), while Milwaukee will counter with Eric Lauer (7-5, 2.93 ERA)
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers keep winning, but unfortunately for them, so do the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers have reeled off six wins in their last seven outings, including four straight, but have failed to make up any ground in the NL West standings.

LA remains two games back of San Fran with just three games remaining, and will need to sweep the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers this weekend, to have any hope of claiming a ninth straight division title.

Brewers vs Dodgers Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Milwaukee Brewers +180 +1.5 (-115) O 8 (-105)
Los Angeles Dodgers -220 -1.5 (-105) U 8 (-115)

Odds as of  September 30th at DraftKings.

The Dodgers opened as -220 moneyline favorites over the Brewers on Friday (October 1st), in a game that features a total of 8. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 pm ET at Dodger Stadium, with clear skies and 63 degree night time temperatures in the forecast.

Probable Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw will take the ball for LA, in his fourth start since returning from the injured list. Kershaw missed over two months with a forearm injury, and has had mixed results since rejoining the rotation.

He looked strong in his first two starts back, allowing just two runs and seven hits over 9.1 innings, but it was a different story last time out in Arizona.

The Diamondbacks touched him up for six hits, four runs, and two homers, in a 7-2 victory. Kershaw has yet to face Milwaukee this season, but owns a 6-5 lifetime record versus them in 11 starts.

His velocity is down a shade following his IL stint and he’s surrendered a hard hit rate north of 33% in two of the three outings.

Lauer vs Kershaw

Eric Lauer
VS
Clayton Kershaw
7-5 Record 10-8
2.93 ERA 3.38
1.12 WHIP 0.99
.211 OBA .218
2.9 SO/W Ratio 6.8

Milwaukee will counter with Eric Lauer, who’s been simply fantastic in his past five starts. The 26-year-old has yielded one run or less in each of those outings, posting a 1.15 ERA and a 32-to-8 strikeout-to-walk rate.

Last time out, Lauer scattered five hits and a single run in a 5-1 victory over the New York Mets, while in his previous start, he one-hit the Chicago Cubs over 5.1 innings.

He’s 1-0 in his only start versus LA this season, shutting them out over 5 innings, while surrendering only four hits.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Brewers Batters Batting Average vs Kershaw Dodgers Batters Batting Average vs Lauer
Willy Adames .000 Mookie Betts .333
Lorenzo Cain .235 Corey Seager .333
Eduardo Escobar .158 Trea Turner .429
Avisail Garcia 1.000 Max Muncy .250
Jace Peterson .000 Cody Bellinger .333
Kolten Wong .000 Chris Taylor .167
Luis Urias .200 Will Smith .000
Christian Yelich .500 Justin Turner .222

The Dodgers’ lineup has exploded over the past two evenings, racking up 19 runs against San Diego, and they’ve outscored their opposition 24-13 over their current four-game winning streak.

Padres vs Dodgers Pick

With so much at stake for LA on Friday night, this contest is going to feel exactly like a playoff game. Dodger Stadium will be rocking, and we should expect Kershaw to feed off the incredible vibes.

There’s no value on LA’s moneyline, but consider the under as a potential play. Sure, Kershaw hasn’t thrived since returning from the IL, but he showed enough in his first two starts back to earn bettors trust. I’m willing to throw out his last start against Arizona, in a very hitter friendly park, and am expecting a bounce back in this must win game.

Lauer meanwhile, has been virtually unhittable over the past month, and there’s no reason to think his excellent form won’t continue. As mentioned, this contest is going to feel like a playoff game, and October baseball breeds low-scoring results.

Pick: Under 8 (-115)

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