Odds Say Bryce Harper Signs with Cubs or Dodgers in 2019
- Impending free agent Bryce Harper has helped his future earnings with a solid second half.
- Which big-market team will shell out to sign the 2015 MVP?
- The Cubs and Dodgers are the early favorites, while the incumbent Nationals are way down in fifth on the odds-list.
At the start of the 2018 season, the last on his current contract, Bryce Harper was the most highly anticipated free agent in recent memory. Rarely does a player this young (25) with these kinds of credentials (184 HRs, .901 OPS, 2012 Rookie of the Year, 2015 NL MVP) become available to the highest bidder.
A slow start tempered the excitement as Harper entered the All-Star Break with just a .214 BA, .468 SLG, and .833 OPS to go along with 102 strikeouts. His power numbers (23 HR) were fine, but it wasn’t the production you expect from a man looking to sign a record-breaking $400 million contract.
While his Nationals remained a disappointment (currently 6.5 games back of the second Wild Card), Harper re-wrote his own 2018 narrative with a strong post-ASG push. Since winning the Home Run Derby in his home park, “Mondo” is hitting .304 with a .560 SLG, and 1.004 OPS.
He’s also continuing to walk at a high rate (leading the NL with 123 walks in total and 45 since the break) and is driving in more runs, sitting sixth in RBIs (97) thanks to driving in 43 runs in his last 184 at-bats.
In his 2015 MVP season, Harper had a .333 BA, .649 SLG, and 1.109 OPS. So he still has some work to do in terms of getting back to an MVP level, but he’s certainly trending in the right direction. And MLB’s free-agent market has proven, time and time again, that big-market teams will pay exorbitant sums even when there is some cause for concern.
Sportsbooks recently posted odds on where Harper will start the 2019 season. To the surprise of no one, the teams with the highest payrolls are at the top of the list.
Odds on Bryce Harper’s Team on Opening Day, 2019
| TEAM | ODDS TO SIGN BRYCE HARPER FOR 2019 |
|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | +150 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +350 |
| New York Yankees | +450 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +650 |
| Washington Nationals | +700 |
| Boston Red Sox | +900 |
| Los Angeles Angels | +1200 |
| San Francisco Giants | +1500 |
The Cubs are the early favorite for a couple reasons. First and foremost, Harper’s childhood friend Kris Bryant is the cornerstone of the franchise and the pair have already expressed an interest in playing together. Harper even posted this image of the two on his Instagram page earlier this year with the hashtag #Back2BackOneDay.
Second, 2018 will mark the Cubs’ fourth straight playoff appearance and they should absolutely be in win-now mode, given that they won’t be able to retain all their young stars (Bryant, Javy Baez, Kyle Schwarber, etc.) forever. In sum, they are an attractive landing spot and could be a motivated buyer.
However, it doesn’t help that they still owe fellow right-fielder Jason Heyward $100 million-plus over the next five years.
Despite comments from Harper that he would love the stay in D.C., the Nationals find themselves behind the Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies in the odds.
That may be a product of the team’s actions at the trade deadlines this year. The club offloaded veterans Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams, Gio Gonzalez, and basically half of its serviceable bullpen pieces (Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley). They are in a state of flux, potentially looking to build around young phenom Juan Soto, and may feel that spreading their money around, bolstering several areas of the roster in the process, is wiser than spending big on one middle-of-the-lineup bat.
Even without Harper, the top of their order in 2019 would be pretty scary. Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, and Ryan Zimmerman make a solid 1-through-5.
While it may be somewhat ridiculous to have the Yankees this high, given their existing commitments to Giancarlo Stanton and the high price-tag players like Aaron Judge will have in the not-too-distant future, there’s no denying that the Nationals have fallen from the top of the chart.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
