Can the Yankees Catch the Red Sox? The Odds Say No

The Red Sox’ recent sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, coupled with a Yankees sweep of the lowly Baltimore Orioles, trimmed Boston’s lead in the AL East from a comfortable 9.5 games all the way down to 6.0.

It was the first time the Red Sox had been swept this season and, for Boston fans of a certain age, it conjured images of 1978. That’s the year Boston blew a 14-game lead to the Yankees, ultimately flaming out in a one-game playoff at Fenway.

The latest 2018 World Series odds have shifted accordingly. Boston’s lead in the odds mirrors its lead in the standings: big, but not as big as it used to be.

Is there any chance this Red Sox team — which is on pace for the best season in franchise history — craters and gets caught by the Yankees in the AL East race?

The odds to win the division scream, “no chance in hell!”

Odds to Win AL East (August 27, 2018)

But the faint of heart in Beantown are starting to whisper.

Strength of Remaining Schedule is a Wash

The first thing to do at this stage is assess who has the tougher road ahead. A Red Sox collapse is a lot more likely if they are facing the cream of the AL down the stretch. But neither team has a decided advantage here.

There’s no real difference in the strength of their remaining schedules According to playoffstatus.com, Boston’s remaining opponents have a .510 winning percentage while New York’s have a .520 winning percentage.

The Yankees’ best chance to gain ground is obviously in the head-to-head matchups, but there are only six meetings left, only three are in Yankee Stadium, and Boston has gotten the better of the Pinstripes so far (8-5).

The Computers Give New York a 7.4 % Chance to Catch Boston

Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and FiveThirtyEight each have their own algorithms for predicting MLB records and, in turn, division winners.

Which one is most accurate is debatable and changes from year to year. But if you average out all three, the Yankees currently have a 7.4% chance to catch Boston (6.7% at Baseball Prospectus, 8.6% at FanGraphs, 7% at FiveThirtyEight).

The best odds you can get on New York right now are +1200, which corresponds to a 7.7% probability. Unless you are dead certain that FanGraphs’ math is the best math, the computers say that there’s no value in betting on New York.

Injuries Remain a Bigger Concern for the Yankees

The Red Sox have built their lead, in part, because they have been healthier than the Yankees. MVP co-favorite Mookie Betts (112 GP) has missed time, and so has ace Chris Sale (23 starts). However, Aaron Judge (99 GP), Gary Sanchez (66 GP), Didi Gregorius (118 GP), and Gleyber Torres (93 GP) have all been absent for significant periods for the Yankees, and that’s had a bigger impact.

While Torres is healthy now and the rest are due back soon(ish), the notion that Aaron Judge is going to return from a six-week absence in mid-season form is unlikely. It’s much more probable that we see a lot of this in his first few games back …

Manager Aaron Boone also knows the uphill battle he faces in catching Boston. Instead of forcing his injured stars right back into the lineup full-time at the earliest possible moment, he’s apt to ease them back in, realizing that the division race is all but lost and the Wild Card is all but won.

So Can the Yankees Catch the Red Sox?

There are more than 6.5 games left in the season, so yes, the Yankees can catch the Red Sox.

Will the Yankees catch the Red Sox? Breathe easy, Boston. The short answer is “no.”