Corbin, Nationals Open as -125 Favorites vs Urquidy, Astros in World Series Game 4 – Picks & Odds
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Updated: March 31, 2020 at 10:37 am EDTPublished:
- The Houston Astros took Game 3 of the World Series 4-1 over the Washington Nationals
- Home teams are 0-3 straight up in the series
- The Nationals are -125 favorites to win at home in Game 4
So much for the value of home-field advantage.
The Houston Astros battled all season to win 107 games and get baseball’s best record, and with it, home-field advantage throughout the MLB playoffs. But the Astros couldn’t beat the Washington Nationals until the series got to Washington, DC.
Washington still leads the best-of-seven series 2-1, and oddsmakers are of the opinion that Houston’s respite of joy will be short-lived. The sportsbook is listing Washington as the -125 favorites to win on Saturday in the Nationals vs Astros Game 4 odds.
Astros vs Nationals Game 4 World Series Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | +115 | +1.5 (-190) | Over 8.5 (+105) |
| Washington Nationals | -125 | -1.5 (+165) | Under 8.5 (-125) |
Odds taken October 26, 2019.
Going back to last season, home teams are 0-5 SU in the World Series.
For First Time, Nationals Given Betting Edge
Even though they maintain a 2-1 advantage in the series, Game 4 will mark the first time in the set that the Nationals take the field assigned the betting edge.
Washington won the first two games as a road underdog and lost Game 3 as a home underdog. Friday’s outcome ended a four-game losing streak for favorites in the World Series.
A veteran edge on the mound is the reason why the Nats have been assigned the role as the chalk in Saturday’s contest. Washington will hand the ball to 14-game winner Patrick Corbin for Game 4.
Corbin hasn’t been very impressive on the hill during the playoffs. He enters his Game 4 start with a 6.91 postseason ERA.
Washington’s woefully inadequate bullpen has meant that Corbin’s been utilized as both a starter and reliever in the playoffs. Corbin is 1-2.
Patrick Corbin, Filthy 83mph Slider. 😷 pic.twitter.com/6KQZwbwUHh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 23, 2019
He took both losses for Washington in the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his first start, NLDS Game 1, he yielded two runs (one earned) over six innings and took the loss. In Game 3, Corbin entered in relief. He blew the save and took the loss.
His other start was in NLCS Game 4. He surrendered four runs over five innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, though he struck out 12 and earned the win.
Corbin pitched one inning of scoreless relief in Game 1 of the World Series.
Another Bullpen Game for Astros?
Just when they’ve got something to feel good about, the Astros will try to avoid going down 3-1 in the World Series via a likely patchwork pitching performance.
José Urquidy will start Game 4 for the Astros tomrrow against Patrick Corbin. Expect to see a lot of Astros relievers in that one.
— Jesse Dougherty (@dougherty_jesse) October 26, 2019
Houston announced rookie right-hander Jose Urquidy as its Game 4 starter. Urquidy was 2-1 in nine regular-season appearances, including seven starts. But he hasn’t stated a game since Aug. 27.
Jose Urquidy: “I’m living the dream.” #Astros
— Daniel Gotera (@DTGotera) October 26, 2019
Urquidy, 24, has made two postseason relief appearances, posting a 2.08 ERA. He worked 2.2 innings of relief for Houston in the decisive ALCS Game 6 win over the New York Yankees, striking out five.
So You’re Saying the Astros Have a Chance?
The staff over at MLB.com did the math on Houston’s chances of rebounding to win the World Series after falling behind 2-0 to Washington.
Employing the postseason odds at FanGraphs, MLB.com assessed that the Astos owned a 7.8% chance of winning four games in a row and capturing the series in six games. Houston’s odds of a seven-game series victory work out to 17.9%.
FINAL: Astros 4, Nationals 1
Houston saves its season in Game 3 of the World Series.
Washington loses for the first time since Oct. 6.
The Astros' bullpen — James, Peacock, Harris, Smith, Osuna — threw 4.1 shutout innings.
Game 4 is Saturday at 8:07p. P. Corbin vs. B. Pen.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 26, 2019
Added together, that gives the Astros a 25.7% chance of capturing the World Series. In other words, they must hit .257 the rest of the way.
Washington, though, is given a 74.3% of winning it all, so the Nats remain clearly in the driver’s seat.
The next step in the journey for either team is a Game 4 victory.
Pick: Washington Nationals (-125).
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
