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Cubs Kris Bryant’s 2019 Home Run Over/Under Set at 28.5

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in MLB Baseball

Mar 17, 2019 · 8:09 AM PDT

Cubs Kris Bryant working out before a game
Kris Bryant is coming off of a down year after only being able to play in 102 games in 2018. Photo by Arturo Pardavila III (Flickr)
  • Kris Bryant was limited to only 102 games last season
  • He hit 13 HR and 52 RBI while posting a .275 average
  • Expect a rebound to form in 2019 for both Bryant and the Cubs as a whole

Kris Bryant has shown flashes of being a superstar in his first four years with the Chicago Cubs.

He struggled last year for a variety of reasons and only ended up playing 102 games. His 2018 numbers skew the fact he’s capable of being an elite hitter and run-producer in the middle of the Cubs lineup.

With that in mind, let’s check out the prop bets for Bryant, and see if there’s any value we can take advantage of.

Kris Bryant 2019 Props

Kris Bryant Prop Line Over Odds Under Odds
2019 Batting Average .280 -115 -115
2019 Runs Scored 95.5 -115 -115
2019 Home Runs 28.5 -115 -115
2019 RBIs 89.5 -115 -115

*Odds taken March 17

Before we break each prop down, have a look at Bryant’s stats through his first four seasons in the MLB.

Kris Bryant Stats

Year Runs Home Runs RBI Average
2018 59 13 52 .275
2017 111 29 73 .292
2016 121 39 102 .295
2015 87 26 99 .272

Bryant’s Batting Average

If this was the OVER/UNDER for Bryant’s average in all four seasons in the big leagues he’d be 2-2.

The years he didn’t hit the over were his rookie campaign and last year’s outlier season. Which do you think is the more likely Kris Bryant?

I’m taking years 2 & 3 and believing that the all-star I watched in 2017 & 2018 will return to form; he’s too good not to, right?


Bet the Over on Runs!

If you plan on only betting one of these props, make this the one. It has the most glaring value on the board if you side with Bryant going over 95.5 runs.

In 2018, he scored 111 runs and the year before, he led the entire National League with 121. As always, you try and find where the bookie created a cushion when placing a prop bet, and there is a ton of it if you side with Bryant going over the number here.


Will Home Runs Return In 2019?

Bryant didn’t get half way to this total in 2018, and in 2017, he would’ve barely hit the over when he finished with 29 home runs. He also would’ve missed the over in his rookie year.

So although 28.5 doesn’t seem high, it actually is in this case.

As I mentioned earlier, it’s all about finding the cushion, and while Bryant may hit for average and end up with a boat load of runs next season, there just isn’t value in betting him to hit 29 dingers.

Instead, fade that number and play the UNDER and watch for him to hit somewhere in the mid-20’s range.


Don’t Let High RBI Line Scare You

Bryant missed this total by 44 RBI last year, and even in a much stronger 2017, he would have still been 23 RBI short of the over.

His first two years, however, he cleared it with a breeze. He had 99 RBI as a rookie and 102 as a sophomore. So which Bryant will we see in 2019?

I’m banking that while he won’t hit the home run over, he will clear the bar here. He has a great eye at the plate and you can see his totals spike across the board when he focuses on hitting for average.

The Cubs should bounce back and Bryant will bounce back in this department.


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