Cubs vs Blue Jays Picks, Player Props, Odds & Betting Splits (Aug 14)

• A marquee pitching matchup features the Cubs’ Matthew Boyd against the Blue Jays’ veteran ace Max Scherzer
• The betting market shows a classic split, with the public heavily backing the Cubs and sharp money leaning toward the Jays
• Check out my best Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays picks, predictions, and player props to target

The Chicago Cubs (68-51, 32-29 away, 55-54-7 O/U) and Toronto Blue Jays (70-51, 39-20 home, 62-50-8 O/U) will square off at the Rogers Centre in Toronto in the rubber-match of a three-game series on Thursday afternoon. First pitch for this matinee is scheduled for 3:07 pm ET. The pitching matchup pits Chicago’s Matthew Boyd (11-5, 2.46 ERA) against Toronto’s Max Scherzer (2-2, 4.21 ERA) set.

With both teams in the thick of their respective playoff races, this rubber match carries significant weight. This article will break down the odds, analyze key player props, and provide a data-driven prediction for the series finale.

Jump to: Odds | Bat-vs-Pitch Stats | Player Props | Picks | Betting Splits

Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds

The odds present a near pick’em scenario, with the visiting Cubs installed as very slight favorites. The tight moneyline reflects the quality of both starting pitchers, balancing Boyd’s season-long consistency against Scherzer’s formidable reputation and the Blue Jays’ home-field advantage. The total has been set at a firm 8.0 runs, with juice on the under, signaling an expectation of a pitcher’s duel.

The vig-free implied win probabilities give Toronto a 49.6% chance and Chicago 50.4%.

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CHC vs TOR Odds Movement

The betting lines for this contest have seen significant movement, particularly on the total. The game total opened at 8.5 runs but has since been bet down to 8.0, a clear indicator that the market expects a low-scoring affair dominated by the starting pitchers. This shift aligns with historical trends, as the under has cashed in each of the last four meetings between these two clubs.

The moneyline has also tightened. Chicago opened as a more significant -124 favorite, but that line has moved to -112. Conversely, Toronto opened at +106 and now sits at -108. This reverse line movement, where the price moves against the public betting percentages (59.8% of bets are on the Cubs), is a strong indicator of sharp money backing the Blue Jays. The professional bettors seem to be fading a struggling Cubs team on the road after a win, a situation where they are just 3-11 in their last 14 opportunities. This discrepancy between public sentiment and sharp action creates potential value on the home underdog.

Boyd vs Scherzer: Batter-vs-Pitcher History

The Cubs have over one hundred at-bats against Scherzer, but nearly two-thirds of them come from Dansby Swanson (51) and Justin Tucker (20). The Jays only have 16 total at-bats against the veteran Boyd, even though he plied his trade in the AL from 2015 to 2024.

Chicago Cubs Career Statistics vs Max Scherzer

The Cubs as a whole have decent numbers against Scherzer, but that’s mostly thanks to veteran Justin Turner, who’s 7-for-20 with four home runs against the future All-Star. That’s all ancient history at this point. The 40-year-old Turner hasn’t played all series and is batting just .222 with three home runs in 61 games this season.

Scherzer relies on a classic power arsenal, featuring a four-seam fastball, a devastating slider, and a changeup. The Cubs’ lineup has shown recent power from left-handed bats like Michael Busch, who could present a challenge.

However, hitters like Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson, who rely more on contact, may struggle against Scherzer’s ability to generate swings and misses. The key will be whether the Cubs can show plate discipline and force Scherzer into high-pitch counts.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Matthew Boyd

The Blue Jays have not faced Matthew Boyd extensively but they have managed a .375 average and 1.036 OPS in 16 at-bats with – stunningly – zero strikeouts. Bo Bichette has the only long ball off of Boyd.

As a left-handed pitcher, Boyd presents an interesting challenge to Toronto’s right-handed-heavy lineup. Sluggers like Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette typically handle lefties well, but Boyd’s success this season has come from limiting hard contact and keeping hitters off balance with his fastball-changeup combination.

The Blue Jays’ approach will be critical; if they can remain patient and hunt for pitches to drive into the power alleys of Rogers Centre, they can find success. If they become overly aggressive, Boyd has the tools to induce weak contact and sail through innings.

Cubs vs Blue Jays Player Props

MLB player props as of August 14 at DraftKings. See the latest news on DraftKings Missouri ahead of launch this winter.

Max Scherzer’s strikeout line of 5.5 feels attainable for the veteran, even against a disciplined Cubs lineup. He’s being asked to get 18 outs (5.2 IP), and given his career K/9 rate, he should be in a good position to hit the over.

On the other side of the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s total-bases prop at 1.5 with plus-money odds (+105) is appealing. He is the heart of the Blue Jays’ offense and has a favorable matchup against the left-handed Boyd. Guerrero is hitting .299 this season with an .880 OPS and is Toronto’s best bet to produce offensively.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Prediction

This game presents a fascinating puzzle for bettors, with strong arguments on both sides. However, a deeper dive into the pitching matchup and key betting trends reveals a clear path. While Boyd’s 2.46 ERA is eye-popping, Scherzer is a proven big-game pitcher tasked with playing stopper for a team desperate to avoid a rare home losing streak. Despite a 4.21 ERA, Scherzer’s performances have been improving over the last three weeks, and his underlying metrics are still strong. He’s more than capable of delivering an ace performance to shut down the Cubs.

The most compelling angles are found in the situational trends. The Cubs have been abysmal on the road following a win, posting a dismal 3-11 (.214) record in their last 14 such games. That trend alone is a major red flag. Furthermore, the Blue Jays have performed well as favorites recently, going 4-1 in their last five games in that role. The sharp money has clearly identified this, pushing the line toward Toronto despite the majority of public bets landing on Chicago.

The total is another area of value. The under has hit in the last four meetings between the Cubs and Jays, and with two high-caliber arms on the mound and both offenses showing inconsistency, runs should be at a premium. The market has already adjusted down from 8.5 to 8.0, but there is still value on the under.

I’m backing the veteran ace at home in a get-right spot, trusting the sharp money and the powerful anti-Cubs trend.

Picks:

• Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-108)
• Under 8.0 runs (-116)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Public Betting Splits: Cubs vs Blue Jays

The public betting splits reveal a significant divergence between the average bettor and professional money. While nearly 60% of moneyline tickets are on the Cubs, over 51% of the actual money wagered is on the Blue Jays, a classic “sharps vs. public” indicator that favors Toronto.