Cubs vs Pirates Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (Sep. 28)
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs are both set at odds of -108 in the Tuesday, September 28 game between these NL Central rivals
- It’s the first time Pittsburgh hasn’t been an underdog in a game since September 10
- Chicago has won seven straight games over Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh Pirates (58-98, 34-41 home) found themselves in the rare position of not being expected to lose as they play host to the Chicago Cubs (67-89, 28-47 away) on Tuesday.
For just the 14th time in 157 games this season, the Pirates are not set as the betting underdog. But they also aren’t the favorite. Pittsburgh and the Cubs are offered at odds of -108. This season, Pittsburgh is 4 -12 against Chicago this season.
Cubs vs Pirates Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | -108 | -1.5 (+168) | O 8.5 (-118) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -108 | +1.5 (-205) | U 8.5 (-104) |
Odds as of September 27th at FanDuel.
First pitch on Tuesday at PNC Park is slated for 6:35pm ET. Rain is in the forecast, along with 6 mph wind, and a temperature of 69 degrees.
Mills vs Keller
| 6-7 | Record | 5-11 |
| 4.83 | ERA | 5.96 |
| 4.72 | xERA | 5.50 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 1.75 |
| 2.73 | SO/W Ratio | 1.93 |
Pirates right-hander Keller has won two of his last three decisions after suffering four straight losses in as many starts. He’s won just two of his last 11 decisions since May 10.
Following a June 10 start against the Los Angeles Dodgers in which he surrendered four earned runs in just 2.2 innings, Keller was banished to triple-A Indianapolis. He was recalled for an August 1 start facing the Philadelphia Phillies.
Pirates win for the first time in Cincinnati this season, 6-2.
Mitch Keller earns his first win since Aug. 20. He wasn't perfect, but he didn't give up the big hit.
Mears with a huge effort to get out of the seventh.
Bucs are 57-94 this season.
— Mike Persak (@MikeDPersak) September 22, 2021
Keller ranks in the bottom 4% of the league in wOBA (.374) and exit velocity (91.3). He’s also among the bottom 5% in hard hit percentage (46.5) and the bottom 8% in xBA (.280).
Keller is facing the Cubs for the fourth time this season. He’s 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA. In six career starts against them, Keller is 1-3 with a 6.50 ERA. At PNC Park, he’s 2-9 with a 5.71 ERA in 19 career starts.
Chicago right-hander Mills is among the top 10% in barrel percentage (4.7). But he’s in the bottom 9% in xBA (.276). He’s lost three of his past four decisions and five of seven since the beginning of July.
https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/1440471730653253632?s=20
He’s faced the Pirates three times in 2021, twice out of the bullpen. Mills has no decisions and a 5.00 ERA to show for it. In his lone starting assignment on September 3, Mills allowed five earned runs and three home runs in 5.2 innings pitched.
In eight career appearances against Pittsburgh including three starts, Mills is 0-2 with a save and a 6.14 ERA.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Pirates Batters | Batting Average vs Mills | Cubs Batters | Batting Average vs Keller |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Alford | .333 | Sergio Alcantara | 1.000 |
| Taylor Davis | .000 | David Bote | .333 |
| Wilmer Difo | .000 | Willson Contreras | .125 |
| Ben Gamel | .000 | Greg Deichmann | .000 |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | .000 | Matt Duffy | .667 |
| Colin Moran | .556 | Ian Happ | .545 |
| Kevin Newman | .333 | Nico Hoerner | .333 |
| Hoy Park | .500 | Nick Martini | .000 |
| Michael Perez | .000 | Rafael Ortega | .333 |
| Bryan Reynolds | .500 | Austin Romine | .000 |
| Yoshi Tsutsugo | .000 | Frank Schwindel | .000 |
| Cole Tucker | .429 | Trayce Thompson | .000 |
| — | — | Patrick Wisdom | .000 |
Based on the respective batting averages for both teams against Tuesday’s opposing starting pitchers, you might want to stop what you’re doing right now and bet the over on this game.
There are six Pirates with career batting averages of .300 or better when facing Mills. As well, there are also six Cubs hitting at least .300 off of Keller.
For Pittsburgh, centerfielder Bryan Reynolds is 4-for-8 (.500) with two home runs and four RBI. First baseman Colin Moran is 5-for-9 (.556) with a solo homer. Utility man Hoy Park is 1-for-2 (.500) and that one hit was a solo homer. Utility man Cole Tucker is 3-for-7 (.429). Leftfielder Anthony Alford is 2-for-6 (.333) and both hits are homers. Shortstop Kevin Newman is also 2-for-6 (.333).
Ian Happ – Chicago Cubs (24) pic.twitter.com/4v6qWSR4Tj
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) September 25, 2021
Outfielder Ian Happ is pacing the Cubs against Keller. He’s 6-for-11 (.545) with a pair of solo homers. Infielder Sergio Alcantara is 2-for-2 (1.000). Infielder Matt Duffy is 2-for-3 (.667). Second baseman Nico Hoerner is 1-for-3 (.333) with a RBI. Centerfielder Rafael Ortega is also 1-for-3 (.333).
Cubs vs Pirates Pick
Chicago is dominating the series with Pittsburgh this season. The Cubs have won seven in a row and nine of 10 from the Pirates. For the year, they own a 12-4 edge.
Overall, though, these are two bad teams. Counting on either to win could easily come back to haunt you. Both teams are 50% on the over this year – Pittsburgh is 74-73-9 and Chicago is 74-74-8.
With these two pitchers on the hill, the total of 8.5 sure seems low.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-118)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
