Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Game 1 Picks, Predictions Odds Movement & Betting Splits

• The Los Angeles Dodgers send ace Blake Snell to the mound against rookie Trey Yesavage for the Toronto Blue Jays
• The Dodgers are favored, but Toronto is 8-1 in their last nine as home underdogs
• Check out my Dodgers vs Blue Jays picks and predictions for Game 1, plus the latest LAD/TOR Game 1 odds

The stage is set for the World Series as the Toronto Blue Jays () host the reigning-champion Los Angeles Dodgers () in Game 1 on Friday night at the Rogers Centre (8:00 pm ET).

The Game 1 pitching matchup has a bit of a David-vs-Goliath feel to it, with the Dodgers handing the ball to two-time Cy Young-winner Blake Snell (3-0, 0.86 ERA in postseason) and the Jays countering with rookie Trey Yesavage (2-1, 4.20 ERA), who has the monumental task of navigating a relentless Dodgers lineup that has steamrolled its way through the playoffs.

Below, I have set out my Dodgers vs Blue Jays picks (moneyline and run total), along with the relevant pitcher-vs-hitter stats, the main player props, the latest Game 1 odds, and public betting splits.

Jump to: PICKS || PvH STATS || PROPS || ODDS || SPLITS

Blue Jays vs Dodgers Moneyline Pick for Game 1

• Los Angeles Dodgers (-150)

Blake Snell has been operating on another level this postseason, posting a staggering 0.86 ERA while suffocating three separate lineups over three starts (Reds, Phillies, Brewers). His historical success against the Blue Jays (.227 average, .623 OPS in 66 ABs) shouldn’t be ignored; he has held the core of their order in check, limiting Vladimir Guerrero Jr to a .630 OPS over 11 at-bats, and George Springer to a .655 OPS over 22 at-bats. (Bo Bichette, who has missed the entire playoffs so far with a knee injury, is on Toronto’s World Series roster, but it’s unclear if he’ll make the Game 1 lineup.)

Trey Yesavage, conversely, is in an incredibly tough spot. After a downright dominant start against the Yankees in his first postseason appearance, he has struggled in his last two, allowing seven runs over 9.2 innings with a 1.656 WHIP.

The Dodgers have have only lost one playoff game to date (Game 3 vs Phillies) and are an astounding 14-1 in their last 15 games against teams with winning records. The Dodgers have also won seven straight as a road favorite.

While the Blue Jays have been a formidable home underdog, winning eight of their last nine, the trends supporting the Dodgers are overwhelming.

Blue Jays vs Dodgers Run-Total Pick

• Under 7.5 (+100) at Caesars

From a run-total perspective, the trends conflict. The under has hit in each of the Dodgers’ last five while the over has hit in five of the last six for the Jays and nine of their last ten as a home underdog.

I expect Snell to be the biggest factor in dictating the outcome. His ability to shut down an offense single-handedly outweighs the trend of high-scoring games at Rogers Centre.

The Dodgers’ offense should be able to provide Snell with early run support against Yesavage, allowing their ace to settle in and control the game. As long as manager Dave Roberts doesn’t have to ask more than a few innings from his depleted bullpen, the Dodgers are apt to quiet the home crowd.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

No member of the current Los Angeles roster has ever faced Yesavage. Yesavage, a right-hander, will have his work cut out for him against a Dodgers order stacked with elite left-handed hitters like Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy. His ability to establish his secondary pitches early will be critical to prevent the Dodgers from keying in on his fastball.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Blake Snell

The historical data paints a grim picture for the Blue Jays. In their limited encounters with Snell, they have largely been overmatched, managing just a .227 average in 66 ABs with one home run (Springer), two doubles (Guerrero Jr, Varsho) and a nearly 28% strikeout rate.

World Series Game 1 Player Props

MLB player props as of October 24 at BetMGM.

Snell’s earned runs line at 1.5 offers intriguing value. Given his 0.86 postseason ERA and his past success against this Blue Jays lineup, under 1.5 earned runs (-105) is a strong play. He has been nearly untouchable, and Toronto’s offense may struggle to even string together base runners, let alone score.

Yesavage’s matchup against the Dodgers’ patient and powerful offense is daunting. The over 2.5 earned runs (-133) feels like a safe bet, as Los Angeles will likely work deep counts and capitalize on any mistakes.

Latest Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 1 Odds

The current Dodgers vs Blue Jays odds list Los Angeles at -154 at FanDuel (and shorter elsewhere). Toronto is as long as +135 at Caesars. The vig-free implied probabilities give the Los Angeles Dodgers a 58.2% chance of winning Game 1, leaving the Jays with just 41.8%.

The total remains at its opening number of 7.5 runs with the over favored (-114 or shorter).

Odds commentary as of 11:23 am ET. The LAD/TOR odds in the table will update automatically with the best available price for each market if the lines move before first pitch.

The World Series odds list the Dodgers at an average price of -224 to win the series. The Blue Jays are +185 underdogs.

TOR vs LAD Game 1 Odds Movement

The most significant movement occurred on the total, which held steady at 7.5 runs but saw the price on the over jump from +100 to -115. This suggests heavy betting volume on a higher-scoring affair, a somewhat surprising trend given Blake Snell’s dominant postseason form and the Dodgers’ recent tendency for low-scoring playoff games.

This movement is likely driven by the potent Dodgers lineup and the hitter-friendly dimensions of the Rogers Centre rather than any negative news surrounding Snell.

Dodgers vs Blue Jays Game 1 Public-Betting Splits

The public is heavily siding with the Dodgers on both the moneyline and the runline, which is unsurprising given the pitching matchup.

The run-total splits are telling. More than 67% of the betting tickets are on the over, but 62% of handle is on the under, creating a classic “fade the public” opportunity.