Dodgers vs Phillies Predictions, Expert Picks, Player Props to Bet & Best Odds

• The Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the 2025 NLDS on Saturday night
• The Phillies went 4-2 against the Dodgers in the regular season and were an MLB-best 55-26 at home
• See the Dodgers vs Phillies Game 1 predictions, expert picks, player props to bet, and updated odds

On a quest to become the first repeat World Series champions since the Yankees’ three-peat from ’98-’00, the Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69, 41-40 away) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (96-66, 55-26 home) at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday night (6:38 pm ET) in Game 1 of their best-of-five NLDS.

The well-rested Phillies send towering lefty Cristopher (13-5, 2.50 ERA 1.06 WHIP) to the mound. The Dodgers, who used top starters Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a two-game sweep of the Reds in the Wild Card, give Shohei Ohtani (1-1, 2.87 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) his first career postseason start.

The Dodgers/Phillies Game 1 odds establish Philadelphia as a slight home favorite with the total ranging from 7.0 to 7.5.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks & Prediction

• Phillies moneyline (-120) at Caesars
• Over 7.0 runs (-119) at DraftKings

The Phillies roster doesn’t have much experience against Ohtani, but they did just see him on Sep. 16th and were completely shutdown. Ohtani pitched five scoreless innings, allowing zero hits and one walk with five Ks. The Phillies didn’t exactly have their A lineup in that day; Alec Bohm, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Trea Turner were all either resting or injured. That game was also in Los Angeles, and the Phillies hitters pose a very different challenge at Citizens Bank Park.

As a team, the Phillies had a 122 wRC+ at home (second-best in baseball). On the road, they had a below-average 97 wRC+ (16th).

Cristopher Sánchez made two subpar starts against the Dodgers in the regular season, allowing eight runs (all earned) on 13 hits (four home runs) and a walk over 12.1 innings. On the plus side, he fanned 15 LA batters.

Like the Philly hitters, Sánchez also gets a big boost from pitching at home. He posted an elite 1.96 ERA at home over 97.2 innings in the regular season (vs 3.02 on the road), despite the hitter-friendly dimensions of Citizens Bank Paruk. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs at home since his start against the Dodgers way back in early April.

The combination of Ohtani’s recent domination of the Phillies, Sánchez’s regular-season struggles against LAD, and the Dodgers’ status as reigning champions have pushed this line closer to a pick’em than it should be. The Phillies are the best home team in baseball and every arm in their bullpen has had the entire week off. Ohtani won’t have the advantage that pitchers tend to get from unfamiliarity this time around, and even if he does, he’s only thrown 90-plus pitches once all season. He still isn’t pitching deep into games most nights, which means the Phillies will get to feast on a bad LA bullpen (4.27 ERA) sooner rather than later.

When Ohtani left the Sep. 16 game after five innings, Philly immediately mashed Justin Wrobleski for five runs in the sixth.

Philadelphia went onto win 9-6. They also won Sánchez’s first start against the Dodgers in April (8-7) and went 4-2 overall against LAD in the regular season.

It’s rare to get the Phillies’ moneyline this long at home with their top arm on the mound. Jump on it.

I don’t expect either starter to be unscathed, and both bullpens are below average. (They had identical 4.27 ERAs in the regular season.) Citizens Bank Park was only 12th in the MLB in Park Factor this year, per Baseball Savant, but it was top-ten in 2023 and 2024 and undoubtedly favors hitters more than pitchers. Over 7.0 is a steal with lineups this good and bullpens this bad.

PHI vs LAD Player Props

MLB player props as of October 4 at FanDuel and DraftKings.

Both pitchers have a strikeout total of 6.5 and both are in plus-money to hit the over (+114 for Ohtani, +116 for Sánchez).

Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 total bases at +131 is the most enticing hitter prop. He has absolutely owned Cristopher Sánchez in his career, slugging 1.500 with two home runs and two doubles in just 12 at-bats.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds

Early on Saturday morning, the Phillies are -120 moneyline favorites (or shorter) with the Dodgers coming back as +105 underdogs. The run total is as low as 7.0 (with -120 juice on the over) and as high as 7.5 (with -122 juice on the under).

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The Dodgers (+376) are the outright favorites in the World Series odds, with the Phillies third +481, on average.

Phillies/Dodgers Game 1 Odds Movement

The betting market has seen notable movement since the lines opened. The moneyline has shifted slightly towards the Los Angeles Dodgers, going from +108 to the current +105 price, while the Phillies have moved from -126 to -120.

The most significant shift has occurred on the total, which opened at 7.0 runs and has been bet up to 7.5 at many books. The ones that have held the total at 7.0 now have the over pretty heavily juiced (-120 or shorter).

The movement appears to be a direct result of heavy action on the over in the MLB public betting percentages: 81% of handle and 74% of wagers are on the over as of 8:54 am ET.