Drawing Yankees in ALDS Hurts Red Sox World Series Odds
- The Yankees and Red Sox will renew their longstanding rivalry on Friday in Game 1 of the ALDS
- New York’s World Series odds have improved since the matchup was determined while Boston’s have suffered
- Are oddsmakers giving the Yankees too much credit?
Get ready for another chapter in the greatest rivalry in baseball.
The New York Yankees dispatched the Oakland A’s on Wednesday evening and will advance to the ALDS, where they’ll meet their arch nemesis, the Boston Red Sox. These two clubs have faced off 2,237 times since 1901, and every game has been a grudge match.
Red Sox vs. Yankees ⚾️ GAME 1 Saturday#ALDS #Postseason pic.twitter.com/vYeYfBgdUi
— ESPN Australia & NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) October 4, 2018
The Sox were the superior team in 2018, winning a franchise record 108 games, but bookmakers clearly believe the Yankees will rise to the occasion, as they’ve lengthened Boston’s average World Series odds from +320 on October 2nd to +340 on October 4th.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have seen their own average World Series odds improve exponentially from +1000 to +650 during the same time frame.
Average Odds to Win the 2018 World Series
That adjustment is notable, because it means that the Red Sox and Astros now have identical +340 odds to win the 2018 World Series.
Odds to Win the 2018 World Series
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | +325 |
| Houston Astros | +325 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +550 |
| New York Yankees | +700 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +750 |
| Colorado Rockies | +800 |
| Cleveland Indians | +850 |
| Atlanta Braves | +1200 |
The Yankees and Sox haven’t clashed in the postseason for 14 years, so it’s natural that bettors and bookmakers alike are buzzing, but are Boston’s longer odds really warranted?
After all, this is still the same club that led the Majors in eight different offensive categories including runs, hits, total bases, RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. They also finished a full 42 runs ahead of the Bronx Bombers in run differential.
Yankees vs Red Sox Statistical Comparison
| 100-62 | RECORD | 108-54 |
| +187 (4th) | RUN DIFFERENTIAL | +229 (2nd) |
| .249 (16th) | TEAM BATTING AVERAGE | .268 (1st) |
| 267 (1st) | TEAM HOME RUNS | 235 (2nd) |
| .329 (8th) | TEAM OBP | .339 (1st) |
| .451 (2nd) | TEAM SLUGGING | .453 (1st) |
| .781 (2nd) | TEAM OPS | .792 (1st) |
| 3.38 (4th) | BULLPEN ERA | 3.74 (9th) |
| 9-10 | 2018 HEAD-TO-HEAD | 10-9 |
Last we checked, Boston also beat up on New York in the regular season, winning 10 of their 19 matchups. The Red Sox outscored the Yankees 116-102 in those dust-ups and generated 10 runs or more on five occasions.
The Red Sox outscored the Yankees 116-102 in 2018 and generated 10 runs or more on five occasions.
Their 10-2 thrashing on Sunday should serve as the only reminder you need of just how dangerous the Red Sox can be when they’re fully engaged. Xander Bogaerts and JD Martinez both went deep in that game and eight different pitchers combined forces to limit the Yankees to four hits.
A Yankees-Red Sox ALDS is good for baseball and a godsend for ratings, but don’t let the hype distract you from the fact that Boston is still the better team. The Red Sox have better hitting, better starting pitching, better depth and they have home field advantage. That last point is especially important since Boston had the best home record in baseball this season and was 7-3 against New York at Fenway Park.
The ALDS will result in fireworks and narratives galore, but it won’t result in the Yankees advancing. Keep your money on Boston as they set their sights on their fourth World Series title since 2004.
Ryan worked as an Editor and resident Lead NBA and MLB Writer for SB from 2017-19. He has authored his own weekly columns for Fox Sports and AskMen, and has created successful campaigns for the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL. Ryan's critically acclaimed stories have been published in 20 books.
