Home Run Derby Odds, Picks, Matchups & Schedule
By Zach Reger in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The 2025 All-Star Break starts with the Home Run Derby on Monday, July 14
- Cal Raleigh, who leads the MLB with 38 home runs, is the betting favorite to win
- See below for the latest Home Run Derby odds, schedule, plus my Home Run Derby picks
Get ready to see a lot of balls go back, back, back tonight, as the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby takes place Monday night at 8 pm ET at Truist Park in Atlanta. Seven of the eight participants in this year’s derby will be making their debut. Only Matt Olson has been in a Home Run Derby before. He lost in the first round back in 2021.
Keep reading to see the latest odds, format, and my picks to win the 2025 Home Run Derby.
Home Run Derby Odds
Odds as of 10:55 am ET at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cal Raleigh, the MLB leader in home runs, is the favorite to win the 2025 Home Run Derby. At +295 odds, sportsbooks are giving Raleigh an implied win probability of 25.32%.
Oneil Cruz, who leads the MLB in average exit velocity (96.3), is not far behind in the odds at +330. Jazz Chisolm Jr. and Junior Caminero are the biggest longshots to win the Home Run Derby at +1100 and +1200, respectively.
Home Run Derby Schedule
The 2025 Home Run Derby will begin at 8 pm ET and will be broadcast live on ESPN and ESPN2. There will be three rounds: the first round, the semifinals, and the finals.
Unlike years past, where there was a set bracket, in 2025, the first round will consist of all eight participants getting three minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first. During that time, they will hit as many home runs as they can. There is also a bonus round, where the hitters continue until they record three outs. An out will be any hit that is not a home run. If the participant hits a home run that is at least 425 feet, they extend their bonus period to four outs.
The four participants with the most home runs will advance to the semifinals. The semifinals will be head-to-head matchups. The player who hit the most home runs will face the hitter who had the fourth-most in the first round. The second and third seeds will play each other as well. These batters will get two minutes or 27 pitches. The winner of those matchups will play in the finals.
The finals will be the same format as the semifinals, and whoever wins will be the Home Run Derby champion. If there is a tie in either the semifinals or the finals, there will be a 60-second swing-off.
Home Run Derby Picks
I am predicting that James Woods will win the 2025 Home Run Derby in his derby debut. The 6’7, 22-year-old power-hitting lefty has everything you could want in a derby champion.
His power numbers are off the charts.
James Wood’s 2025 Power Metrics
The only downside to Wood is that he does not hit the ball in the air as much as the other power-hitters in the field, but at the Home Run Derby, he will be able to focus on hitting the ball over the fence. Even with a low fly-ball rate, Woods still found a way to hit 24 home runs before the All-Star Break.
Truist Park is pretty even in terms of ballpark factor, but it does favor left-handed batters, like Woods, because of a shorter right outfield. He played one four-game series in Atlanta in 2025, and he hit a home run, so he has already gone yard in this ballpark.
The betting favorites in this year’s derby worry me. Cal Raleigh, of course, is having an unbelievable year, but the switch-hitter is planning on hitting from both sides of the plate. I believe that complicates things, and too much switching could keep him from getting in the zone. Oneil Cruz has also been inconsistent this year. That should not be as big of a problem at the derby, but I do not see value at his price at +330.
It is only a matter of time before Wood becomes a household name, and tonight is a great opportunity for him. This can be a grueling event, and Wood should have the stamina to power through until the end.
Home Run Derby Best Bet: James Wood (+450)
Home Run Derby Longshot Pick
While I believe James Wood will win the 2025 Home Run Derby, Matt Olson is worth a sprinkle as a longshot bet at his home park.
Olson was a late addition to the field due to an injury to teammate Ronald Acuna Jr. He has hit nine home runs in 2025 at Truist Park and hit two at home at the beginning of July.
Since he was a late addition, he did not get to participate in the practice rounds, but I see it as a positive that he is entering this tournament with no pressure. He is at home so he can handle the Atlanta heat, and he is the only hitter in the field who has been in the Home Run Derby before.
Olson has an exit velocity of 93.8 and a hard-hit rate of 54.2%. He is poised to put on a show in front of his home fans.
Home Run Derby Longshot Pick: Matt Olson (+800)
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Zach has been involved in the sports betting industry for three years. After starting to bet on sports in college, Zach was interested in how it can make any game interesting. The trends, line movement, and finding unique angles to predict the outcomes of games captivated Zach to get more involved.
