Home Run Props to Target Today – Get a +35000 HR Parlay on Monday, May 12th

• It’s back-to-work time for us in the MLB on Monday, May 12
• We’ve got some weather issues that we need to navigate, but as always, we can do that
• See below for my +35000 home run parlay today (May 12th)

It’s Monday and dammit, we need some home run bets to get the week started. We have yet to hit the three-legger that we deserve, but we’re getting close. The thing is, we only need to hit two all season (I think we’ll hit three this year). By my math, we’ll do this 183 times in the regular season. There will be 100 times when we get nothing. Not even one guy. Then there will be 70 times when we get one guy, 10 times when we get two, and three times we’ll get three. Simple math tells us that if we do that, we’ll be rolling in cash when all is said and done. We just have to keep fighting the good fight and remembering to get the best possible price on every one of our bets. If we do that, we could easily end up in the Gambling Hall of Fame by September. Feels easy.

Please remember to play both legs straight for a 1/4 unit as well as a 1/2 unit two-leg parlay.

MLB Home Run Parlay Today (May 12)

MLB odds as of May 12 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s list of the top sports betting apps.

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CLAIM OFFER

Monday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run

We’ll start tonight with the great Kerry Carpenter. We call him “Barry” in the streets, but for this article, it’s Kerry. I just want to make sure we’re all talking about the same guy. We can’t afford to have any mix-ups tonight. Not on a Monday.

But at the end of the day, once we see Kerry against Tanner Houck’s pitch mix, we’ll know we have the right guy.

We used to not target Tanner Houck when it came to home runs. The man only gave up 11 dongs in 178 innings of work in 2024. I’m not sure what changed this season, but he’s already given up eight in only 41 innings this season. Of those eight, six have come off the bat of a lefty. Translation: all roads lead to Kerry Carpenter putting one on the moon tonight, people. Feels easy.

• The Bet: Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+550) – BetMGM

Monday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run

The worst weather game on the board for dinger is the Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs game. The wind will be blowing in at eight mph in a park that doesn’t deal with wind well. Still, I think we have to take Kyle Tucker on principle alone. At the end of the day, if a guy hits a ball 100+ mph off the bat, it’s going to take more than a slight breeze to keep that ball out of the stands.

Just look at what Kyle Tucker does to Cal Quantrill’s pitch mix. It’s disgusting.

The thing with Tucker is, we can throw out all of the “pitcher talk.” It just doesn’t matter who is pitching. He can hit anyone over the fence. The guys just took Clay Holmes for a ride the other day, and Holmes had not given up a dinger all season. Now he’ll get Quantrill whom he has already smoked once in his career. This is as free as the air we’re all breathing right now.

• The Bet: Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+475) – BetMGM

Monday HR Parlay Leg #3 – Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run

Most people would say to avoid the lefty-lefty matchups when it comes to home runs, but not us. We’re smarter than that. While there are not many lefties who thrive against left-handed pitchers, there are some who do. They shouldn’t be lumped in with the rest of the guys that don’t. It’s just not fair.

Jackson Merrill would firmly be in the “good against lefties” category.

At the end of the day, this is a price game, and we’ve got a great price for Merrill tonight. At this point, he is a +500 at most type of guy. He has proven to be a guy who can hit 100+ mph off the bat consistently, no matter what hand the pitcher throws with. Yusei Kikuchi gave up five jacks to left-handers last season, so it’s not like he can’t give one up. And if Kikuchi doesn’t, someone in the Los Angeles Angels bullpen can. Feels right.

• The Bet: Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+700) – ESPN
• SBD 3-Man HR Strategy Results: -6.963 Units