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Home Run Props to Target Today – Get a +21680 HR Parlay on Wednesday, May 14th

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in MLB Baseball

Published:


May 9, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; San Francisco Giants third baseman Matt Chapman (26) runs the bases on his solo home run against the Minnesota Twins in the seventh inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images
  • We’ve got a more-than-full MLB Slate on Wednesday, May 14
  • 17 games in total will be played, so we have to be able to find at least three guys who are going yard
  • See below for my +24953 home run parlay today (May 14th)

We’re staring at another Wednesday slate, but this one is different. Since there were a couple of rainouts yesterday, we’re getting extra baseball. Seventeen games in total will be played today, so we need to be locked in. Lucky for us, of all the guys playing today, we only need to find three who are going yard. That’s it. And if that wasn’t easy enough, there are multiple turkey tossers on mounds all over MLB today. How lucky can we possibly be? I know 17 games is a lot to pick through, so I already went through all of them and hand-picked my favorite three guys on the slate. All you have to do is follow and watch the cash rain all over us. Feels easy.

Please remember to play all three legs straight for a 1/4 unit as well as a 1/4 unit two-leg parlay.

MLB Home Run Parlay Today (May 14)

PickOdds
Matt Chapman HR+450
Brandon Lowe HR+500
Ryan McMahon HR+560
Three-Leg Parlay+21680

MLB odds as of May 14 at FanDuel. See the latest news on FanDuel Missouri.

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CLAIM OFFER

Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Matt Chapman to Hit a Home Run

I’m not really an afternoon home run guy. In my opinion, afternoons are for strikeouts, and night games are for home runs. It’s always been like that, and it will likely always be like that. But, there are exceptions to every rule, and Matt Chapman may be that exception this season. The man is a day game home run guy.

Plus, he demolishes the pitch mix he’ll see from Eduardo Rodriguez.

PitchChapman Hard Hit Rate vs LHP (L30 Days)Rodriguez ISO vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball100%.176
Changeup100%.381

Pitcher vs batter is a highly overrated variable in my opinion, but it is worth something as the more meetings occur. One thing that is certain is Chapman likes facing Rodriguez. Small sample size or not, Chapman has five extra base hits in just 18 plate appearances vs Rodriguez. He’s smoking baseballs at the moment, and even if he doesn’t get to Rodriguez, he could easily get the high-barrel rate bullpen Arizona trots out. Feels like a great place to start.

  • The Bet: Matt Chapman to Hit a Home Run (+450) – FanDuel
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Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Brandon Lowe to Hit a Homer

This is where things get a little tricky. Obviously, we need to target the Toronto Blue Jays. Their bullpen is a mess, so we’re alive the entire game when we target them. The thing is, I thought it was Junior Caminero when I woke up. In his defense, it probably is, but it could also be someone else.

That someone else looks like Brandon Lowe, given what he does to Chris Bassitt’s arsenal.

PitchLowe Hard Hit Rate vs RHP (L30 Days)Bassitt ISO vs LHB (2025)
Sinker75%.227
Cutter33%.333

Again, we can take pitcher vs batter data with a grain of salt, but it’s nice to know Lowe has taken Bassitt yard three times in his career. Does that mean he’ll hit a fourth tonight? Not exactly. This is more about Lowe hitting at least one ball 100+ mph in each of the last three games. The guy is seeing it, and Bassitt is serving it. As always, if Lowe can’t get to Bassitt, there is always a turkey tosser in the Toronto bullpen that could easily help the situation. We’re in good hands here.

  • The Bet: Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+500) – FanDuel

Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #3 – Ryan McMahon to Hit a Home Run

We’re looking at another familiar face, and it’s Ryan McMahon. I know we just took him yesterday, and he let us down, but he did his best. The guy hit a lefty 105 mph. It just didn’t have the launch angle. It happens.

McMahon will get a shot at another lefty, Patrick Corbin, tonight. And given the pitch mix, I’m thinking the +560 price tag is worth it.

PitchMcMahon Hard Hit Rate vs LHP (L30 Days)Corbin Hard Hit Rate vs LHB (2025)
Sinker40%25%
Slider33%71%

The haters are going to say to stay away from lefty/lefty matchups, but I disagree. For starters, I’m not a big blanket statement guy. There are always exceptions, and Ryan McMahon is one of them. Patrick Corbin is as well, for that matter. The man has given up two dingers in just 32 plate appearances this season. And let’s say McMahon doesn’t get to Corbin, he could always slap around that slap-aroundable Texas bullpen. We’re going to be so rich after this. Feels easy.

  • The Bet: Ryan McMahon to Hit a Home Run (+560) – FanDuel
  • SBD 3-Man HR Strategy Results: -8.463 Units
John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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