Kuechel, Braves +104 Underdogs vs Hudson, Cardinals in NLDS Game 4 – Picks & Odds
- Atlanta Braves seized a 2-1 series lead with a 3-1 comeback victory on Sunday night
- Braves now poised to claim their first postseason series victory since 2001
- Cardinals have lost six of eight overall, but are undefeated in their past past four when facing postseason elimination
The Atlanta Braves can advance to the NLCS for the first time since 2001 with a win on Monday, when they battle the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 4 of the NLDS clash as narrow +104 road underdogs in the MLB odds. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07 PM ET.
Atlanta’s Game 1 starter, Dallas Keuchel (3.75 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), will face ground-ball savant Dakota Hudson (3.35 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), who’s making his first career playoff start in a do-or-die game for the Cardinals.
Cardinals vs Braves Odds – Game 4
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | +1.5 (-190) | +104 | Ov 8.5 (+100) |
| St. Louis Cardinals | -1.5 (+165) | -124 | Un 8.5 (-120) |
*Odds taken 10/07/19
Game 3 Win Gives Braves First Series Lead Since 2002
The Braves took a 2-1 series lead with a thrilling 3-1 victory in Game 3 on Sunday. They have now posted consecutive wins for the first time since September 21. Their 2-1 lead in the NLDS is the first time they have been ahead in a playoff series in 17 years.
The Braves rally in the 9th to take the lead in Game 3 of the NLDS, a breakdown pic.twitter.com/Mom68bqJzx
— Jomboy (@Jomboy_) October 7, 2019
The club still has work to do if they are to establish their first three-game win streak in 41 postseason outings. The Braves needed ninth-inning heroics to earn the Game 3 win after being unable to solve veteran St. Louis starter Adam Wainwright, who held them to just four hits over 7.2 innings of shutout work in the second straight pitchers duel of the series.
Braves Enjoy Success in Low-Scoring Contests
The two clubs have combined to score just seven total runs over the past two games since St. Louis opened the series with a 7-6 victory. However, the Braves have thrived in low-scoring contests in recent weeks, going 19-8 in their past 27 outings when the UNDER has cashed, and 12-7 in their past 19 contests that have featured six or fewer total runs.
The Braves’ win on Sunday also extends their recent dominance over the Cardinals in games at Busch Stadium, where they have now claimed victory in seven of eight contests since August 2017, and held the Cards to three or fewer runs on five occasions during that stretch.
Keuchel Seeking First Win in Seven Postseason Starts
Dallas Keuchel will be on the hill for Atlanta in Monday afternoon’s contest. The 31-year-old put the brakes on a three-game losing streak over his final three starts of the regular season with a steady performance in Game 1, giving up just one earned run over 4.2 innings of work in the Braves’ heartbreaking 7-6 loss as -150 home chalk.
The last time Dallas Keuchel made a start on short rest:
2015 Wild Card game vs Yankees: 6IP, 3H, 0R, 1BB, 7K, 87 pitches, 54 strikes
Astros won 3-0 pic.twitter.com/iiTaaZM9tJ
— Knockahoma Nation (@KnockahomaNTN) October 7, 2019
That marked the eighth time in 10 career postseason starts that Keuchel has limited opponents to three or fewer earned runs. However, the veteran southpaw has failed to earn a win in his past six postseason appearances, and has seen action beyond the fifth inning just once during that stretch, possibly setting the stage for another busy afternoon for the Braves bullpen.
Desperate Cardinals Look to Avoid Elimination
Modest -124 favorites in the Cardinals vs Braves Game 4 odds, the Cardinals enter Monday afternoon’s contest looking to avoid being ousted from the NLDS for the second time in as many appearances. Now with their backs to the wall, the Cardinals must find a way to snap a dismal 2-6 run over their past eight games, and a 3-5 run in eight contests at Busch Stadium.
Most wins in potential elimination games in postseason since 2004
San Francisco Giants (10)
St. Louis Cardinals (10)
Boston Red Sox (8)
Houston Astros (6)— Isaac (Greece trip in September 2024) (@isaacfromFL) October 7, 2019
The Cardinals are also winless in their past two postseason contests when facing a 2-1 series deficit, but have responded well in home games when facing elimination, averaging 6.75 runs per game while winning four straight.
Hudson Outstanding in Home Starts This Season
This time around, the Cardinals will pin their hopes on starting pitcher Dakota Hudson. The 25-year-old was outstanding during the regular season, leading all rookie hurlers with 16 wins. Hudson has been particular impressive when starting at home, racking up a 9-2 record and 2.75 ERA in 17 starts this season.
In game four of the NLDS, the Cardinals will have Dakota Hudson vs either Dallas Keuchel or Julio Teheran.
If Keuchel starts, it’ll be a battle of ground balls as Keuchel ranks 1st in MLB in GB rate (60.1%) while Hudson ranks 2nd (56.9%)(min. 110 IP)(1/2)
— Matt Chrietzberg (@BravesMattC) October 6, 2019
Hudson remained steady down the stretch, going 6-1 over his final eight starts of the campaign, and limiting opponents to just 11 total earned runs during that stretch. The right-hander also held the Braves to just two earned runs over 6.1 innings in his only previous start against Atlanta, a 6-3 loss at home on May 25.
Pick: Braves to win (+104), UNDER 8.5 (-125)
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
