Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction & A.I. Picks for ALDS Game 4

• Cam Schlittler and the New York Yankees try to even their best-of-five ALDS with the Toronto Blue Jays at 2-2
• Toronto has to go with a bullpen game after manager John Schneider only put three starters on his ALDS roster
• Below, see our Blue Jays vs Yankees A.I. picks for Game 4, plus the best player props to get, and the latest TOR/NYY odds

Fresh off a season-saving five-run comeback last night, the New York Yankees (94-68, 50-31 home) have a chance to even their best-of-five ALDS with the Toronto Blue Jays (94-68, 41-40 away) at two games apiece on Wednesday night. First pitch for Game 4 is scheduled for 7:08 pm ET at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.

The Yankees are heavy favorites, the shortest either team has been in any game this series (-172 or shorter), as they send promising rookie Cam Schlittler (2.96 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 73.0 IP) to the mound against Toronto reliever Louis Varland (2.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 72.2 IP), who will be followed by a host of other bullpen arms.

Below, I will set out our A.I.’s favorite Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 4 picks and prediction, the relevan pitcher-vs-batter history, the main Game 4 player props, and up-to-the-minute odds.

Jump to: A.I. PICKS || PITCHER-vs-HITTER STATS || PLAYER PROPS || CURRENT ODDS

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Prediction

• Yankees -1.5 (+125) at BetMGM
• Over 8.0 (-124) at BetRivers

After going 3-for-3 in Game 3 (NYY moneyline, over 7.5, Judge over 1.5 total bases), our A.I. is running it back in Game 4. This time, though, it’s targeting the Yankee runline at a better price (+125) and a slightly-higher over (8.0 runs).

The A.I. is heavily influenced by the ostensible pitching mismatch. The Jays’ bullpen has been a complete disaster over the last two games, and now their relievers will be asked to carry the water from start to finish. Opener Louis Varland was tagged for two runs on two hits in just one inning in Game 3 last night, taking the loss in the process.

Making matters worse, rookie Cam Schlittler is coming off an eight-inning shutout of the Red Sox in the decisive Game 3 of the Wild Card. He allowed just five hits and no walks while fanning 12 Boston hitters, showing veteran poise in an elimination game that belied his rookie status.

There is some concern around Schlittler as the top of the Blue Jays order hit him hard in his last regular-season start against Toronto, a 7-1 Jays win in which Schlittler last just 1.2 innings, giving up four runs on five hits and two walks. But his stuff was much better against the Red Sox than it was in that September start.

The A.I. is also keying on several betting trends that support a bet on the Yankees. New York is 10-1 in its last 11 games and 11-3 in their last 14 as a favorite. Toronto is just 1-5 in its last six road games and 1-4 in their last five as road underdogs.

The Blue Jays’ extensive injury list (which still includes AL-hits leader Bo Bichette) coupled with a flailing bullpen is too much to overcome against a team as strong as the Yankees in their own ballpark.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Varland vs Schlittler

Neither starter has an extensive history against the opposing hitters, but both have some history and both have struggled mightily overall.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Cam Schlittler

Toronto has a .435 average and .953 OPS against the 6’6 righty with four walks and just four strikeouts. The good news for Schlittler is that none of the hits were for extra bases. Guerrero is 4-for-5 and Barger is 2-for-4.

New York Yankees Career Statistics vs Louis Varland

The Yankees have 33 total at-bats against Varland and have mashed a .394 average and 1.398 OPS, led by three home runs from Aaron Judge in just six at-bats.

NYY vs TOR Player Props (Game 4)

MLB player props as of October 8, 2025 from DraftKings.

Based on the batter-vs-pitcher history, there’s significant value in the props market. Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-116) is a standout play. He already has three dingers against Louis Varland in just six at-bats. Given Varland’s recent struggles and vulnerability to right-handed power, Judge is in a prime position to do damage. Similarly, Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 Hits looks strong, as he is 2-for-3 with a homer against Varland.

For the pitchers, Varland’s earned runs line is set at a low 0.5, but the over offers a tempting +165 payout. Considering he allowed two earned runs in just one inning in his last outing against this team, and with Judge and Chisholm’s history, the over is a high-value proposition.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds

As of 3:57 pm ET, the Yankees were -172 on the moneyline or shorter, with FanDuel offering the best price. The Blue Jays were as long as _152 at Caesars. The run total was sitting at 8.5 across the board. Bet365 had the best price on the under (-110) while FanDuel had the best price on the over (-105).

Odds commentary as of 3:57 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best available price if the MLB odds move before first pitch.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds Movement & Analysis

The betting market has moved decisively toward the New York Yankees since the lines opened. The moneyline shifted a significant 20 cents, from an opener of -155 to the current -175. This movement indicates that a majority of the money, particularly from sharp bettors, is backing the Yankees at home. The MLB public betting data confirms this, with 78% of the moneyline handle on New York.