Mariners vs Blue Jays Moneyline, Run Total & Player-Prop Picks for Game 7

• A trip to the World Series is on the line when the Blue Jays host the Mariners in ALCS Game 7
• Toronto sends Shane Bieber to the mound, while the Mariners counter with George Kirby
• See my expert Mariners vs Blue Jays picks and predictions, plus player props to bet

The Toronto Blue Jays (94-68, 54-27 home) and Seattle Mariners (90-72, 39-42 away) meet in a winner-take-all Game 7 of the 2025 ALCS on Monday at the Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 pm ET. Fox will have the broadcast in the US, while Sportsnet will carry the game north of the border.

Toronto hands the ball to 30-year-old righty Shane Bieber, who has been steady this postseason and has historically shut down the Seattle hitters. On the other side, the Mariners are putting their faith in 27-year-old righty George Kirby, who has been battered by the Toronto hitters, both recently and during his career in general. Kirby’s last outing (Game 3) was a disaster, and his ability to rebound under the brightest lights will be the central storyline.

Below, I have set out my three favorite Mariners vs Blue Jays picks (moneyline, run total, and player prop) plus the full list of SEA vs TOR player props available to bet, and finally the latest Mariners vs Blue Jays betting lines for Game 7.

Jump to: ML Pick || O/U Pick || Prop Pick || Player Props || Game 7 Odds

Mariners vs Blue Jays Game 7 Picks

Moneyline Pick: Blue Jays (-130) at BetMGM

The historical and statistical data points to a clear edge for the home team. The most glaring factor in this matchup is the starting pitching disparity in this specific context. While Shane Bieber has been serviceable, George Kirby has been utterly ineffective against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays lineup has a collective 1.083 OPS against him, with stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer doing significant damage. Kirby’s reliance on his fastball has been his undoing, and there’s little reason to believe he can suddenly reverse that trend in the most hostile environment imaginable

Run-Total Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (-110) at FanDuel

The over has hit in five straight games in the ALCS and in eight of Toronto’s last ten, overall. As I’ll discuss in the next section, the Jays have hammered Kirby in his career, and the last four games have shown they can get to the Seattle bullpen, as well. The Jays have pounded out 29 runs over the last 36 innings.

Player-Prop Pick: Kirby Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-112) at DraftKings

The most compelling player prop for Game 7 is Kirby to allow over 1.5 earned runs at -112 odds. This pick is heavily supported by his dismal track record against the potent Toronto lineup. Historically, the Blue Jays have tattooed Kirby, boasting a collective .301 average and .864 OPS. This indicates a significant offensive advantage for Toronto, with their hitters consistently generating extra-base hits and scoring opportunities whenever Kirby is on the mound. Given this historical dominance, the low earned run total of 1.5 presents a strong value play for bettors.

Kirby’s recent postseason performance provides little confidence in his ability to contain the Jays. He enters Game 7 with an ugly 7.07 ERA this postseason, and his last outing against Toronto was an unmitigated disaster; he was shelled eight runs on eight hits, including three homers.

The high-pressure environment of a winner-take-all Game 7 is unlikely to suddenly reverse these trends, especially when facing a Blue Jays offense that is clicking and has shown an ability to exploit Kirby’s reliance on his fastball. The combination of Toronto’s proven success against Kirby and his current struggles makes over 1.5 earned runs a high-probability bet.

TOR vs SEA Player Props for Game 7

The prop market offers intriguing value, particularly when cross-referencing with the batter-vs-pitcher data. Guerrero Jr’s total bases prop is set at 1.5 with juicy -105 odds on the over. Considering he is 5-for-10 with three extra-base hits in his last ten ABs against George Kirby, this looks like a prime opportunity. Though pitching around Toronto’s most-dangerous hitter is sure to be part of Seattle’s gameplan.

Bieber’s strikeout line of 4.5 is a key focal point. The Mariners have posted a subpar 28.1% strikeout rate in the ALCS and are susceptible to a pitcher with Bieber’s arsenal. The -140 price on the over reflects this, but it still holds value. Bieber racked up eight Ks in just six innings in Game 3.

The two tables below show the batter-vs-pitcher data for every player on each roster against the opposing starter.

Seattle Mariners Career Statistics vs Shane Bieber

Bieber has done a phenomenal job of limiting runs and hard contact against this group of Seattle hitters over his entire career. In 131 total ABs, the Seattle lineup has an abysmal .546 OPS against the 6’3 righty. Julio Rodriguez took him deep in Game 3, but that only raised his average to .250 and his OPS 6o .750. Eugenio Suarez is the only other Mariner with a home run off Bieber, and he has an even-worse .200 average and .600 OPS.

J.P. Crawford has the best overall history against the 30-year-old Toronto starter, going 7-for-14, but all seven hits are singles.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs George Kirby

The Jays lineup has made excellent contact against Kirby over the 27-year-old’s entire career. They have an elite .310 average in 71 ABs. Before Game 3, Kirby could at least say that none of the Jays have taken him yard. But that came to an abrupt end when Gimenez, Guerrero Jr, and Springer all hit home runs off the 6’4 righty last Wednesday.

The red-hot Guerrero is now 5-for-12 (.417 avg.) with three extra-base hits off of Kirby.

Best Available Mariners vs Blue Jays Game 7 Odds

At the time of publication, the best Toronto moneyline had shortened to -130 (bet365). The best Seattle moneyline was +115 at ESPN Bet. The run total was sitting at 7.5 across the board. Basically every sportsbook has the over juiced at -115 and the under at a longer -105 price.

Without the vig, the currently moneyline odds give the Blue Jays as 54.4% implied win probability, compared to 45.6% for the M’s.

Game 7 Odds Movement: SEA vs TOR

The betting lines for this Game 7 have seen subtle but significant movement. The Blue Jays opened as -116 favorites on the moneyline and have since been bet up to -130 or shorter, indicating that early public money is backing the home team to finish the job. The total has held firm at 7.5, with only a slight juice adjustment toward the over, moving from -108 to -115.

Bieber, meanwhile, faces a Mariners lineup that is overly reliant on home runs and has been prone to strikeouts all series. While Julio Rodriguez has had his number in a tiny sample size, the rest of the Mariners lineup has a collective .190 batting average against him. Bieber doesn’t need to be perfect; he just needs to limit the long ball and let his defense work.

SEA vs TOR Public Betting Splits for Game 7

The MLB public betting trends overwhelmingly support a high-scoring game. The over is getting 61% of O/U handle on 67% of O/U wagers.

The moneyline splits show an interesting divide. The Jays are getting 52% of moneyline tickets, but only 43% of moneyline handle, indicating bigger wagers are on the underdog Mariners to pull one out of the fire.