Upcoming Match-ups

Marlins vs Mets Odds and Picks

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in MLB Baseball

Apr 9, 2021 · 11:51 PM PDT

Jacob deGrom delivers a pitch
New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) throws during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the Houston Astros, Tuesday, March 16, 2021, in Port St. Lucie, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
  • The New York Mets are -286 home favorites over the Miami Marlins in the second game of a three-game series onSaturday afternoon (April 10th, 1:10 pm ET)
  • Mets ace Jacod deGrom will try to continue his career mastery over the Fish, while Miami counters with Trevor Rogers
  • Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game

The Miami Marlins will try to defy the odds and pick up their second win of the season in unlikely fashion as big underdogs Saturday against two-time Cy Young Award-winner Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets.

The Mets evened their record at 2-2 on Thursday, taking the first game of the series 3-2 in bizarre comeback fashion.

First pitch is slated for 1:10 pm ET at Citi Field.

Marlins vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Miami Marlins +235 +1.5 (+100) Over 7 (-120)
New York Mets -286 -1.5 (-120) Under 7 (-103)

Odds as of April 9th at DraftKings.

The Amazins benefited from a disputed hit-by-pitch with the bases loaded to knock off the Marlins Thursday. Now, Luis Rojas’ club is a heavy favorite in the Marlins vs Mets odds, in a game that features a total of 7.

Following a game-tying solo home run by Jeff McNeil in the ninth, Michael Conforto was grazed on his right elbow pad by Miami closer Anthony Bass on a pitch that appeared to be a strike. But home plate umpire Ron Kulpa ruled it a hit by pitch, scoring Luis Guillorrme with the winning run.

The Marlins had Friday to put the controversial loss behind them to prepare for deGrom, which promises to be a challenge. Arguably the best pitcher in baseball has performed well historically against Miami, going 10-8 with a 3.00 ERA over 162.0 innings and 203 strikeouts in 26 starts.

First baseman Jesus Aguilar leads the Fish with a .333 batting average, but Don Mattingly’s team has only managed 21 runs in the first seven games, going 1-6.

Marlins’ Career Stats vs deGrom

Corey Dickerson 14 2 0 1 4 .143
Miguel Rojas 38 9 0 5 7 .243
Starling Marte 9 1 0 1 3 .111
Jesus Aguilar 12 4 1 3 2 .333
Brian Anderson 35 8 1 3 10 .229
Adam Duvall 2 0 0 0 2 .000
Jazz Chisholm N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Chad Wallach 3 0 0 0 2 .000
Trevor Rogers N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Good Luck

If Miami is going to pull off the upset against deGrom Saturday, it will need some of the luck (and perhaps the benefit of a bad call or two by the umpiring crew) New York was afforded in Game 1 of this series.

Thankfully for Mattingly’s team, the player who is off to the best start from a hitting perspective is also the player who comes into Saturday with the best career numbers against the ace. Plus, he’s a sly fox.

If Dickerson, Rojas, or Marte can get on ahead of Aguilar, all it takes is one swing of the bat to put a crooked number. Of course, that’s easier said than done against deGrom. The three-time All-Star scattered three hits over six innings while walking two and striking out seven in a no-decision to the Phillies Monday in a game the Mets eventually lost 5-3.

Like any team that faces the Mets when deGrom is on the bump, how the 32-year-old’s counterpart fares goes a long way in dictating the outcome. In Saturday’s case, that burden falls on Trevor Rogers.

Mets’ Career Stats vs Rogers

Brandon Nimmo 3 0 0 0 0 .000
Francisco Lindor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Michael Conforto 2 0 0 0 2 000
Pete Alonso 5 0 0 0 2 000
Dominic Smith 2 1 0 1 1 .500
Jonathan Villar N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jeff McNeil 4 2 0 1 1 .500
James McCann N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jacob deGrom N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Beginner’s Luck?

Rogers pitched well at Citi in his Major League debut last August, going four scoreless innings. The Mets batters he’ll likely face Saturday have gone a combined 3-for-16 against him for a .188 batting average. And the 23-year-old is coming off a four-inning outing against the Cardinals Monday in which he allowed three runs (two earned) while allowing four walks and striking out six in an eventual 4-1 loss. But can Rogers  actually hold the Mets at bay enough for his team to scratch some runs on the board against deGrom?

If the game plays out anything like Thursday’s, anything is possible. That said, facing a lineup that features newly-minted Lindor (the superstar shortstop inked a ten-year, $341 million contract extension on the eve of the 2021 season), former Rookie of the Year Alonso and the always dangerous Conforto will be a daunting task for Rogers.

Neither team has exploded at the plate, with the Fish averaging three runs per game and the Mets averaging four. The under figures to be a solid play in this spot, but I’ll go with the home team and play the run line favorites.

The pick: Mets -1.5 (-120)

Author Image