Mets vs Brewers Odds, Betting Lines, and Probable Pitchers
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Milwaukee Brewers are -190 home favorites over the New York Mets in a National League game slated for Sunday afternoon
- Milwaukee would clinch the NL Central Division title with a victory in this game
- Saturday’s loss eliminated the Mets from playoff contention
The Milwaukee Brewers (93-62, 44-36 home), who’ve already clinched a spot in the NL playoffs, are a step away from certifying their status as an MLB divison winner. Meanwhile, the New York Mets (73-81, 36-53 away) would officially step away from playoff contention.
Milwaukee’s 2-1 victory over the Mets on Saturday reduced the Brewers’ magic number to clinch the NL Central Division title to one. At the same time, the loss brought the playoff hopes of New York’s NL squad to an end. They were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.
Oddsmakers expect that there will be champagne corks popping in the Milwaukee clubhouse following Sunday’s game. The Brewers are the -190 chalk to win this game. Milwaukee is just 37-32 as a home favorite this season.
Mets vs Brewers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | +160 | +1.5 (-135) | O 8 (-105) |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -190 | -1.5 (+115) | U 8 (-115) |
Odds as of September 25th at DraftKings
The first pitch for Sunday’s game is set for 2:10pm ET at American Family Field. In the weather forecast there are party cloudy skies, 13 mph wind and a temperature of 81 degrees.
Carrasco vs Peralta
| 1-3 | Record | 9-5 |
| 5.24 | ERA | 2.65 |
| 4.18 | xERA | 2.63 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| 3.50 | SO/W Ratio | 3.45 |
Brewers right-hander Peralta is proving to be one of the delightful stories of the 2021 MLB season. He rates among the top 2% in the league in xBA (.170), among the top 3% in xSLG (.274), and in the top 4% in xERA (2.63), xwOBA (.249), xwOBACON (.311) and strikeout percentage (34.1). He’s also in the top 6% in hard hit percentage (30.8), the top 7% in wOBA (.248) and the top 9% in exit velocity (86.2).
Lately, though, things aren’t going his way. Peralta hasn’t recorded a win since August 10. He’s 0-2 in five starts since with a 5.03 ERA. That included a three-start stretch in which he never made it past the fourth inning. The Brewers are 2-3 in those five starts.
Freddy Peralta threw 96 pitches today, most he's thrown since prior to his IL stint for shoulder inflammation. Another step forward as he preps for the postseason.
6ip, 7h, 3er, 1bb, 9k.
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) September 21, 2021
He’s looked more like himself the past two starts. Peralta struck out 18 against one walk in 12 innings.
Peralta will be facing the Mets for the first time this season. In fact, it will be Peralta’s first appearance against them in his MLB career. At home, he’s 14-6 all-time in 50 appearances, including 23 starts. Peralta shows a 2.97 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in home games.
Carlos Carrasco now has a 14.40 first-inning ERA in his 10 starts this season. pic.twitter.com/4tfRn8PNIw
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 18, 2021
Right-hander Carrasco’s lone win came September 7 at the Miami Marlins. It was one of two of his 10 starts this season in which Carrasco worked over five innings. The other was his last start against the Phillies. Carrasco pitched six innings in that game and took the loss.
He hasn’t faced Milwaukee this season. Carrasco is 2-0 in three career starts against the Brewers with a 1.64 ERA.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Brewers Batters | Batting Average vs Carrasco | Mets Batters | Batting Average vs Peralta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames | .600 | Pete Alonso | .000 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr | .250 | Javier Baez | .167 |
| Lorenzo Cain | .429 | Michael Conforto | .000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | .200 | JD Davis | .000 |
| Avisail Garcia | .269 | Luis Guillorme | .000 |
| Omar Narvaez | .182 | Francisco Lindor | .000 |
| Jace Peterson | .000 | James McCann | .000 |
| Manny Pina | .000 | Jeff McNeil | .000 |
| Tyrone Taylor | .000 | Tomas Nido | .000 |
| Luis Urias | .500 | Brandon Nimmo | .000 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | .273 | Jose Peraza | .273 |
| Kolten Wong | .000 | Kevin Pillar | .000 |
| Christian Yelich | .154 | Dominic Smith | .000 |
| — | — | Jonathan Villar | .000 |
Several Milwaukee hitters have enjoyed digging in at the plate to face Carrasco. Shortstop Willy Adames is 3-for-5 (.600). Third baseman Luis Urias is 1-for-2 (.500). Outfielder Lorenzo Cain is 9-for-21 (.429). Third baseman Eduardo Escobar is only 2-for-10 (.200) but has homered and driven in five runs. Centerfielder Jackie Bradley Jr, outfielder Avisail Garcia and first baseman Daniel Vogelbach have also homered off of Carrasco.
Mets second baseman Jose Peraza is 3-for-11 (.273) against Peralta.
Mets vs Brewers Pick
Carrasco was originally expected to pitch Saturday. However, after jamming his thumb in his last start, the Mets opted to give him an extra day’s rest.
Carrasco is struggling in the first inning this season. He’s allowed 16 earned runs and seven homers in 10 starts for a 14.60 ERA.
Milwaukee has won three in a row over the Mets and will be going for a series sweep on Sunday. The Brewers have won eight in a row over the Mets at American Family Field. They’ve outscored New York 46-19 during that stretch of success.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-190).
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
