Mets vs Yankees Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sunday Night Baseball

• The Mets and Yankees wrap up the latest iteration of the Subway Series on Sunday Night Baseball on May 18
• Max Fried puts his perfect 6-0 record on the link for the Pinstripes against David Peterson for the Mets
• See the Mets vs Yankees odds, predictions, and picks for Sunday Night Baseball

Civic bragging rights are on the line on Sunday Night Baseball this evening when the New York Mets (29-17, 12-12 away, 16-27-3 O/U) and New York Yankees (26-19, 14-9 home, 20-23-2 O/U) meet in the rubbermatch of a three-game set in the Bronx.

First pitch is slated for 7:10 pm ET and, with a red-hot Max Fried on the mound, the Yankees are favored in Sunday’s MLB odds.

Mets vs Yankees Odds & Betting Lines

The Yankees are -175 chalk on the moneyline and +118 to win by at least two runs. The Mets come back as +145 road underdogs on the moneyline and -143 to keep the score within a run. The game total is sitting at 8.5 with the over favored at -120 and the under priced at even-money.

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The MLB public betting splits are all over the Yankees in the series finale. NYY is getting 73% of moneyline handle and 92% of runline handle as of 1:30 pm ET.

The first two games of the series both stayed under 8.5. The Yankees took a 6-2 win on Friday while the Mets answered back with a 3-2 victory on Saturday.

NYM vs NYY Starting Pitchers for Sunday

Fried’s surface-level stats are at or near the top of the leaderboards in almost every category. He’s tied for the MLB-lead in wins, owns the best ERA among qualified pitchers, and is seventh in WHIP. He’s now the third-favorite in the AL Cy Young odds.

Yet, his peripherals predict sizable regression. His xERA (3.59) and xFIP (3.55) are both closer to four than they are to three, and his strikeout rate is actually the lowest it’s been since 2020.

He’s had excellent batted-ball luck, surrendering just a .237 BABIP. According to Baseball Savant, his barrels-per-plate-appearance of 5.7% is basically right in the middle of qualified hurlers (173rd out of 356). His average exit velocity is better (268 out of 356).

A longtime Brave, Fried has a lengthy history against the Mets lineup, and it’s mostly favorite for the pitcher. In 194 total at-bats, the current Mets rosters has a .242 average and paltry .642 OPS against Fried. They have accounted for just three home runs, two from Pete Alonso in 36 at-bats and one from Francisco Lindor in 28 at-bats.

The history between Peterson and the Yankees is much smaller. Current Yankee players have only faced the 29-year-old lefty 14 times, and one of those was by Fried, himself. Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham are both 0-for-4, while Anthony Volpe is 1-for-3 with a single. No one else has faced Peterson more than once, and no one has an extra-base hit off the Mets starter.

Peterson has been solid in his last two starts, going 6.0 IP in each while allowing four runs on nine hits. Control continues to be an issue, though, giving up seven free passes in his last 12 innings against just 13 strikeouts.

He’s largely been able to pitch around his mistakes in 2025, boasting a solid 3.05 ERA thus far, but his xERA of 4.41 and WHIP of 1.35 are ominous portents. That said, he went all of 2024 without coming back to earth, finishing with a 2.90 ERA but 4.59 xERA and 4.10 xFIP.

NY Mets vs NY Yankees Picks & Predictions

• Under 8.5 (-100) at BetMGM

I have a hard time backing the Yankees at short -175 odds, but I’m also not prepared to bet into Fried right now. He’s been excellent all season and has a long and excellent history pitching against the Mets.

Instead, I’m going to have faith that Peterson can continue to outperform his peripherals – as he did all of last season – and bet a third straight under in this Subway Series finale.

If the starters can put in quality starts, they’ll be handing the ball to two of the best bullpens in the bigs. Both the Mets and Yankees sit top five in bullpen FIP and xFIP, and top ten in bullpen ERA.