MIL Brewers vs LA Dodgers Picks & Player Props to Target in NLCS Game 4
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for the Dodgers looking to sweep the Brewers in NLCS Game 4
- All three NLCS games have stayed under their run total so far
- See my favorite Brewers vs Dodgers picks and player props to target, plus the latest LAD/MIL odds
After winning the first three games of the series by multiple runs, the Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69, 52-29 home) look to close out the best-of-seven National League Championship Series against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers (97-65, 45-36 away) in Game 4 on Friday night at Chavez Ravine (5:38 pm PT).
Shohei Ohtani (2.87 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) starts for the Dodgers, while the Brewers still haven’t named their starting pitcher in what figures to be a bullpen game.
This article will break provide my best Brewers vs Dodgers picks and player props to bet in Game 4, plus the latest MIL/LAD odds and line movement.
BREWERS vs DODGERS PICKS (GAME 4)
I’ve been backing the Brewers as plus-money underdogs for most of the series, and I’m finally conceding. Their regular-season success against the Dodgers (6-0) is ancient history by this point. LA’s hitters are outstripping Milwaukee’s, and the Brewers don’t have the pitching edge I expected (especially in the bullpen).
Ohtani was solid in his first postseason start, holding the Phillies to three runs on three hits and a walk with nine strikeouts over 6.0 innings. And now he gets to pitch from the comfort of home, against a lighter-hitting lineup that has never seen his arsenal before. Ohtani has the raw stuff to completely dominate a Milwaukee lineup that has been anemic all series, posting a sub-.200 batting average and struggling to generate any power.
That’s a nightmare calculus for an already-slumping Brewers lineup.
Milwaukee’s lack of starting-pitching depth is rearing its head again; manager Pat Murphy has yet to name a starter because there is no clear and obvious option behind ace Freddy Peralta.
All signs point to another decisive Dodger victory to clinch the NLCS pennant. The Brewers’ only path to victory involves their bullpen delivering a flawless performance, but their offense has shown no indication it can provide the necessary run support to make that happen.
The historical trends overwhelmingly favor Los Angeles and a low-scoring affair. The Dodgers are an astounding 13-1 in their last 14 games against opponents with a winning record and 11-1 in their last 12 as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Brewers have been dreadful on the road against winning teams, going just 1-9 in their last 10.
The under has been a consistent winner for both clubs in the playoffs, hitting in the last four Dodgers’ and last five Brewers’ postseason games. With Ohtani on the mound in a pitcher-friendly park at night, runs will be at a premium. The Dodgers’ offense is potent enough to score a few early runs, which should be more than enough for their ace and deep bullpen to secure the win and cover.
Dodgers vs Brewers Player Props for Game 4
Ohtani’s strikeout line of 6.5 is particularly intriguing. The Brewers have a high strikeout rate this series, and Ohtani’s swing-and-miss stuff should play up in a high-stakes home game. At nearly even-money, the over presents solid value.
This will be Ohtani’s first career pitching appearance against the Brewers. Only one Milwaukee batter – Andrew Vaughn – has ever faced Ohtani before, going 0-for-3 during his time with the White Sox.
Ohtani’s arsenal, featuring a high-velocity fastball complemented by a devastating splitter and sharp slider, is notoriously difficult for first-time opponents. The Brewers’ offense, which has posted a meager .608 OPS in the postseason, is ill-equipped to handle this kind of elite stuff. With a high team strikeout rate already plaguing them this series, Milwaukee faces an uphill battle to generate baserunners, let alone runs, against one of the game’s elite arms.
On the batter side, Mookie Betts to record over 1.5 total bases at -103 is a strong look. As the leadoff hitter, he will get maximum plate appearances, and his ability to hit for extra bases makes this a compelling wager against a parade of Brewers relievers.
LAD vs MIL Game 4 Prop Pick: Ohtani Over 6.5 Ks
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds
The Dodgers are -196 favorites or shorter at the time of publication, which is the shortest moneyline of the series to date. The Brewers are as long as +170 to pick up their first win of the NLCS. Without the juice, the moneyline prices give the Dodgers a 63.6% implied win probability, leaving just 36.4% for the Brewers.
The run total was sitting at 7.5 at almost all books with the over slightly favored (-115 or shorter). BetRivers has bumped it up to 8.0 but with -115 juice on the under.
Odds commentary as of 2:09 pm ET. The odds in the table will update automatically with the best-available price if the MLB lines move before gametime.
The Dodgers are -175 odds-on favorites in the World Series odds, well ahead of the Mariners (+330) and Blue Jays (+390), who are tied 2-2 in the ALCS. (Find my Blue Jays vs Mariners picks for Game 5 here.)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds Movement & Analysis
The most significant line movement for this contest has been on the total, which opened at 8.0 runs and has since dropped to 7.5. This shift is a direct result of several factors: Shohei Ohtani’s presence on the mound, the Brewers’ profound offensive struggles, and the historical tendency for both teams to play low-scoring games in the postseason. The juice is now shaded toward the Over 7.5, suggesting the market believes the adjustment may have gone slightly too far, but the initial move downward was sharp and decisive.
The moneyline has seen minimal changes, with the Dodgers opening at -198 and settling at -196. However, public betting splits reveal a fascinating story. While 51% of moneyline tickets are on the Dodgers, a staggering 78% of the handle is on the Brewers, indicating that sharp, professional money sees value in the underdog. Conversely, the public is heavily backing the Dodgers on the run line, with nearly 78% of bets on Los Angeles -1.5. This heavy public action on the favorite has likely kept the run line from becoming more expensive for Dodgers backers.
Public Betting Splits for Dodgers vs Brewers
The MLB public betting percentages for this NLCS game reveal a potential split between the public and sharp bettors. On the moneyline, the public is narrowly backing the Los Angeles Dodgers with 51.04% of the tickets. However, 78.4% of moneyline handle is on the Brewers, indicating professionals see value in the underdog price.
Bettors slightly favor the over, as well, with 57% of tickets backing over 7.5 runs. But those 57% of tickets only account for 51% of O/U handle.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
