NY Mets vs NY Yankees Picks, Odds & Best Bets for Game 1 (May 16)

• The New York Yankees are -142 moneyline favorites over the New York Mets tonight
• Tylor Megill (3-3, 3.10 ERA) takes the ball for the Mets, while the Yankees counter with Carlos Rodon (4-3, 3.29 ERA)
• See my NY Mets vs NY Yankees picks and best bets for Game 1 of their series below, plus the NYM vs NYY odds

Another installment of the Subway Series begins tonight, as the Yankees (25-18, 13-8 home) host the Mets (28-16, 11-11 away) in the Bronx. Game 1 will mark the return of Juan Soto to Yankee Stadium, after he broke the hearts of Bronx Bomber fans by signing with the Mets in free agency.

Online sportsbooks don’t expect a happy reunion for Soto and Co. as they’ve pegged the Yankees as favorites in the MLB odds. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 pm ET, with light winds and a 40% chance of showers in the forecast.

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Picks

• Over 9 (-105 at Bet365)

The Mets will send Tylor Megill to the mound looking to tame baseball’s highest scoring team. I’m predicting that won’t happen, and am picking a high-scoring contest for Game 1 of the series.

Megill is coming off his two worst starts of the season. He’s been skating by thanks to a career-best strikeout rate, but I’m banking on that regressing very soon. The right-hander is actually generating the second fewest swings and misses of his career. His velocity is down on both his fastball and sinker, while his hard hit rate allowed has never been higher.

Megill is surrendering hard contact at a 45.2% clips, and has yielded 11 hits, 8 earned runs and 2 homers in his past two starts. The Bronx Bombers meanwhile are living up to their name. They lead MLB with 76 home runs and a .481 slugging percentage.

Aaron Judge, the runaway favorite in the AL MVP odds, is off to one of the best starts in Yankee history, leading the league in home runs, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, hits and RBI. Six Yankees boast a WAR of 1.1 or higher, while five of them have gone deep at least seven times.

Tylor Megill vs Carlos Rodon Stats

The Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodon, who’s yielded two runs or less in four of his past five starts. Like Megill, he’s also racking up strikeouts this season, but his K rate seems more sustainable. Rodon is generating swings and misses at a career average rage, but has been painting the edges. His 19.2% called strike rate is the best of his MLB tenure, but his hard hit allowed rate is still quite high at 38.5%.

That’s trouble against a very strong Mets lineup. They enter play ranked top-10 in home runs, hits, slugging and OPS, and absolutely crush southpaws like Rodon. The Mets are slashing .270/.355/.439 versus lefties this season, while Soto is batting .353 against them with a .989 OPS.

Mets vs Yankees Odds

It all adds up to offensive fireworks, which is why I’m picking the over. The most favorable odds we can get on over 9 runs is -105 at Bet365. The Yankees are a -142 moneyline favorite and +145 to cover the 1.5 run line. The Mets come back as a +120 underdog, and are -175 to cover the spread.

Odds as of May 16th at bet365. Claim the bet365 bonus code to bet on MLB today. 

Per the MLB public betting splits, the market is actually leaning under. 79% of the total money wagered is on the under, a sentiment that I simply don’t agree with given the strength of each lineup.

NY Mets vs NY Yankees Best Bets

• Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI (-125 at Bet365)

If I’m betting the over in this battle of World Series odds contenders, I’ll need serious production from both teams. You can’t go wrong betting on Judge, but his prop lines appear efficiently priced.

I’ll target Francisco Lindor, who loves hitting against Rodon. Lindor is 10-for-35 lifetime against the lefty, with a pair of home runs and 6 RBI. He’s among the top-30 in MLB in runs, home runs, RBI and hits, and is a great bet to exceed over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI at -125 odds.