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Odds Against Any Player Having 30 HR and 30 SB in 2019 MLB Season

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Mar 15, 2019 · 1:29 PM PDT

Mookie Betts celebrates at home plate.
Mookie Betts and the Red Sox had a lot to celebrate in 2018. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr)
  • Sportsbooks are offering odds that no MLB player will have 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 2019
  • Two players – Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez – joined the 30-30 club in 2018
  • Only nine active MLB players have posted 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in the same season

Membership in Major League Baseball’s 30-30 club won’t be growing to 41 in 2019. Sportsbooks are offering odds against any MLB player clouting at least 30 homers and stealing a minimum of 30 bases during the 2019 campaign.

Two players achieved the feat in 2018. American League MVP Mookie Betts clouted 32 HR and swiped 30 bases. Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez clubbed 39 home runs and stole 34 bases.

Odds of Any MLB Player Finishing with 30 HR and 30 SB in 2019 MLB Season

Will Any MLB Player Finish With 30 HR And 30 SB in 2019 MLB Season? Odds
Yes +400
No -700

*Odds taken 03/15/19

They were the first to join the 30-30 club since 2012.

It’s a Select Group

Betts and Ramirez increased to nine the number of active MLB players who’ve posted a 30-30 season. Two of them – Ian Kinsler and Ryan Braun – have posted two 30-30 campaigns during their MLB careers.

Braun was the last player to do so in successive seasons (2011-12). Braun and Mike Trout both posted 30-30 campaigns in 2012, while Braun was one of four 30-30 players in 2011 along with Kinsler, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Matt Kemp.

Kinsler’s other 30-30 campaign was in 2009. Brandon Phillips (2007) and Hanley Ramirez (2008) are other active players in the group.

Why Has 30 HR, 30 SB Taken a Siesta?

There’s only been 40 of them posted since Ken Williams of the St. Louis Browns posted MLB’s first 30-30 season in 1922. In fact, the second one didn’t arrive until Willie Mays did it in 1956.

Between 1987-2012, though, the 1994 and 2010 MLB campaigns were the only ones absent a 30-30 performer. In 12 of 18 seasons between 1995-2012, there were multiple players with 30 HR and 30 SB.

So why the slowdown since then?

Blame the seamheads. Whatever label you give it – Sabermetrics, Moneyball – the analytics craze has crushed the life out of the stolen base. Amidst the obsession with on-base percentage and the passion over the home run, the thought of swiping a base is considered to be too much of a risk.

In 1987, there were .85 stolen bases per MLB game. In 2018, that number was .50 per game. Baseball today is all about smarter, safer baserunning and that is leading to less base stealing.

Who Could Go 30-30?

Obviously, the list starts with Betts and Ramirez and the fact that 10 times in MLB history, players have gone 30-30 in back-to-back seasons.

There were 27 players with at least 30 HR in 2018 but just 11 with 30 stolen bases. After Ramirez and Betts, Pittsburgh’s Starling Marte (20) had the most homers among the 30 SB group. On the other hand, five of the other 30 HR players stole at least 20 bases, led by Colorado’s Trevor Story (27), Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor (25), and Trout of the Los Angeles Angels (24).

Two broke the barrier and three others were knocking on the door. We say go against the odds. Bet on there being a 30 HR, 30 SB player in the MLB in 2019.

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