Odds Are Stacked Against Tim Tebow Ever Reaching the Majors
- Tim Tebow’s is still chasing his dream of becoming a Major Leaguer despite being on the wrong side of 30
- Can the former Heisman winner bounce back from his current injury?
- Should Tebow hang up his glove and return to the broadcast booth instead?
Tim Tebow turns 31 today. That may not sound particularly old, but in baseball years it’s practically 101. The former Heisman winner is already a decade older than many of his Minor League teammates, and six years older than the average Major League rookie.
Tebow’s age has long been a concern among scouts, and it appears that bookmakers are now equally worried it may prevent him from getting to the Bigs. Books have taken his advanced years into consideration and has set his odds of reaching the Show in 2019 at just +250.
Will Tim Tebow play in the Majors before the end of 2019?
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| True | +250 | 28.6% |
| False | -400 | 80% |
Tebow’s age isn’t the only obstacle he must overcome. The two-time national champ has also been on the shelf since July 23rd after breaking the hamate bone in his right hand in a game with the Mets Double-A affiliate. He has since undergone surgery and will miss the remainder of the season.
The injury came at a particularly bad time as Tebow was hitting .340 in July and had just participated in the Eastern League All-Star Game, where he went one for four with a double. His performance in the mid-season game drew a lot of attention, but let’s make one thing perfectly clear: it was a meaningless Double-A exhibition game, and Tebow was there primarily because of his popularity and drawing power.
Tim Tebow 2018 Minor League Stats
| BA | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| .273 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 36 |
As inspiring as Tebow’s story has been on many levels, he’s still light years away from the Major Leagues. Scouts within his own organization freely admit that he can’t hit a Big League fastball and that he’s completed baffled by changeups and curves. That was particularly evident during Spring Training, as Tebow went 1-for-18 with 11 strikeouts. His inability to make contact also plagued him this season with the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (seriously, you can’t make this stuff up), as he had a team-high 103 strikeouts at the time of his injury.
There’s a part of me that wants to see Tebow reach the Majors because it validates the power of dreams and rewards perseverance. However, there’s a much bigger part of me that knows it won’t happen.
His age and lack of experience are huge drawbacks, and they’ll only get worse with every passing day. By this time next year, Tebow will be 32 and will be no better at hitting sliders and no closer to reaching the Majors.
If the Chicago White Sox resisted calling up Michael Jordan in 1994 despite similar numbers in Double-A, then there’s little chance the Mets (or another equally desperate organization) will call up an aging and ill-equipped Tebow in 2019.
Taking “False” isn’t terribly life-affirming, but it’s absolutely the right call. There are some odds that even Tebow can’t overcome.
Ryan worked as an Editor and resident Lead NBA and MLB Writer for SB from 2017-19. He has authored his own weekly columns for Fox Sports and AskMen, and has created successful campaigns for the WWE, the NHL, and the NFL. Ryan's critically acclaimed stories have been published in 20 books.
