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Odds to Replace Price as Reds Manager: Girardi or Larkin?

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 19, 2018 · 11:29 AM PDT

Bryan Price talks to Homer Bailey on the mound.
Bryan Price (L) was fired as manager of the Reds after four-plus seasons of losing baseball. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) CC License.
  • The Reds have finally fired Bryan Price.
  • Will Cincinnati bring in a Reds legend to replace him?
  • Which MLB manager will be the next to get canned?

Earlier today, the Reds’ Bryan Price became the first manager casualty of the 2018 MLB season.


The move was expected and something of a mercy kill. The team is off to an MLB-worst 3-15 start and has an MLB-worst -46 run differential. During Price’s five-year tenure, the team is 279-387, overall, and has never finish above .500.

With Price as manager, the Reds have never even come within ten games of .500.

So Cincy fans were not exactly sad to see him go …


Who will take over the helm of this floundering Reds ship? And which manager now has the hottest seat on the MLB bus?

Odds on the Next Cincinnati Reds Manager

CANDIDATE ODDS
Joe Girardi 3/2
Barry Larkin 3/2
John Farrell 9/1
FIELD 9/1

Right now, this is a toss-up between Barry Larkin and Joe Girardi.

Larkin is one of the greatest Reds of all time, playing 19 seasons with the team, going to 12 All-Star games, and winning one NL MVP award (1995) and one World Series (1990). He has some coaching experience, but no managerial experience, unlike Girardi. He’s stated that he wants to manage at the major-league level though, and only wants to do it in the Queen City.

The seasoned Girardi managed the Yankees for ten years, going a stellar 910-710 (.562 W%) and winning the 2009 World Series. He also won manager of the year in 2006 in his lone season with the Marlins.

[Joe Girardi] was still considered one of the best managers in the game when he was dismissed by New York.

He was still considered one of the best managers in the game when he was dismissed by New York last offseason, and did a tremendous job coaching up their young talent. By reaching Game 7 of the ALCS last year, Girardi put the Yankees’ rebuild way ahead of schedule.

If Girardi doesn’t think Cincinnati is a good fit, and the Reds want someone with more experience than Larkin, John Farrell could wind up with the job.

The ex-Red Sox manager was hired by Cincinnati as a scout in the offseason, so he’ll already be somewhat familiar with the Reds’ pieces. Like Girardi, he also has a World Series ring (2013) on his finger from his time managing Boston.

Odds on the Next MLB Manager Fired

MANAGER (TEAM) ODDS
Buck Showalter (Orioles) 3/2
Bruce Bochy (Giants) 4/1
Kevin Cash (Rays) 6/1
Ned Yost (Royals)  6/1
FIELD 14/1

Showalter and the Orioles are languishing at the bottom of the AL East standings, already 10.5 games behind Boston. They are headed for a rebuild and, with the roster soon to be in transition, now is the time to shift to a new manager, one who is better suited to work with a group of younger players that will have to endure a few losing seasons.

When the Giants brought in Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria in the offseason, it was clear that the team was in win-now mode. But Bruce Bochy has the team second-last in the NL West, five games back of division-leading Arizona. The team is averaging just 2.9 runs per game and their -15 run differential is third-worst in the NL.

The easiest thing for a win-now team to change mid-season is the manager, and the Giants may axe Bochy looking for a spark.

[The Royals’] -39 run differential is only better than one team in the majors, and that’s the team that just fired its manager.

Kevin Cash’s Rays are right there with Baltimore in the AL East basement. But Cash has only been on the job for two-plus years, and the expectations are not as high in Tampa.

Low expectations also apply to Yost in Kansas City, as his Royals roster was skinned to the bone this offseason.

That said, the KC fan-base has grown used to having a respectable baseball team these past few seasons, and a 3-13 record (second-worst in the majors) doesn’t exactly fit the bill. Their -39 run differential is only better than one team in the majors, and that’s the team that just fired its manager.

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