- The Houston Astros and New York Yankees are co-favorites to record the most wins in 2019
- The Astros have won an MLB-best 204 games over the last two seasons
- Who is the best bet on the board?
Opening Day is right around the corner! We’ve already examined which MLB team will lose the most games in 2019, and now it’s time to look at which club will win the most games.
It’s still early, but the Houston Astros appear to be baseball’s most complete team.
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 9, 2017
The 2017 World Series champs have an embarrassment of riches both at the plate and on the mound, and are the co-favorites along with the Yankees to rack up the most wins this season.
Odds to Win Most Regular Season Games in 2019
|Which Team Will Have the Most Wins in 2019?||Odds|
|New York Yankees||+350|
|Boston Red Sox||+550|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+550|
|St. Louis Cardinals||+1200|
|New York Mets||+2500|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+5000|
|Los Angeles Angels||+10000|
|San Diego Padres||+10000|
|Chicago White Sox||+20000|
|San Francisco Giants||+30000|
|Toronto Blue Jays||+30000|
|Kansas City Royals||+100000|
*Odds taken 03/13/19
The Astros are are the only team in baseball to win 100 games in each of the last two seasons, and have the luxury of playing in the same division as three of the eight lowest projected teams in the American League.
Positive Regression is Coming for Astros
Houston won 103 games last season, but believe it or not they should have won more. They had an MLB-best run differential of 263, which should have netted them six more victories according to Pythagorean win/loss calculations.
Game saving catch for win 101 ??? pic.twitter.com/Fbd518p0R6
— Houston Astros (@astros) September 29, 2018
They were the fifth unluckiest team in baseball, finishing 24-24 in one run games and 5-6 in extra inning contests. You can expect both those numbers to regress in their favor as long as their run differential remains high, and judging by their roster there’s no reason why it won’t.
The Astros Are Stacked, but so Are the Yankees
The Astros offense is led by three MVP candidates (Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman) and they just added some left handed pop by signing Michael Brantley.
GRAND SLAM MICHAEL BRANTLEY ????
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 12, 2018
There isn’t a single weak link in the entire line-up and their pitching staff is just as formidable.
Gerrit Cole, 100 mph Fastball on his 101st Pitch. ??? pic.twitter.com/JMWIibnLoH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 2, 2018
Sure, they lost Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, and Lance McCullers, but Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander are back, Collin McHugh is healthy again, and they added Wade Miley.
#Astros introduce Wade Miley. Miley from Hammond, LA. Family fired up to have him playing closer to home. 5-2 with 2.57 ERA in 16 starts with Brewers last season. @astros @abc13houston pic.twitter.com/gZ2KSvZvkx
— Bob Slovak (@BobSlovak13) February 1, 2019
The Yankees, meanwhile, are just as potent on offense, fielding a line-up that strikes fear in any opposing pitching staff. They led the Majors in Home Runs in 2017 and 2018, and are the only team in baseball to score at least 850 runs in each of the last two seasons.
Giancarlo Stanton hits a MAMMOTH home run. Yanks up 2-0. pic.twitter.com/6pBwlpGkOv
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) March 8, 2019
They made a big splash of their own in the offseason, signing coveted starter James Paxton, which gives them a dominant number two behind projected Cy Young candidate Luis Severino.
What a moment for the Mariners’ James Paxton in Toronto pic.twitter.com/xSQNBaQCNw
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) May 9, 2018
What Separates the Astros and Yankees?
Both Houston and New York can crack the 100 win total, but who wins more will ultimately come down to their schedule. The Yankees will be battling hard with the Red Sox and pesky Rays all season, while the Astros are the only legit contender in their division.
Oakland has been decimated by injuries, Los Angeles is a .500 team, and Texas and Seattle have two of the worst rosters in the AL. The softer schedule, combined with their abundance of talent, make Houston a very strong play, and I’ll be backing them for the most wins, and to claim their second title in three seasons.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.