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Odds Say Yankees Won’t Break Single Season HR Record in 2019

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 14, 2020 · 12:13 PM PDT

Yankees sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton
Fans can expect to see a lot of home run celebrations between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in 2019. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr).
  • Yankees racked up a major league record 267 home runs during the 2018 MLB season
  • Stanton, Judge currently perched as favorites atop odds to lead MLB in home runs in 2019
  • Injuries likely represent biggest obstacle in Yankees’ bid to smash last year’s record

A steady presence at the plate powered the New York Yankees to a Major League record 267 home runs in 2018. But despite featuring the top two favorites to lead the majors in long balls this season, the Yankees are pegged as +200 longshots to top last year’s record-setting performance.

Will the Yankees Break Their Single-Season Home Run Record in 2019?

Yankees Break Their Single-Season Home Run Record in 2019 Odds
Yes +200
No -300

Odds as of March 16, 2019.

Yankees’ Powered by Prolific First-Half Performance in 2018

The Yankees wasted no time setting themselves apart from the rest of Major League Baseball, recording 24 games featuring three or more home runs in the first half of the season, racking up an impressive 161 dingers into the all-star break.

Not surprisingly, Giancarlo Stanton led the hit parade during his first campaign with the Yankees, connecting on 38 home runs. He’s currently perched as a +800 favorite to be baseball’s top home run hitter this season.

Stanton has a strong track record of dominance at the plate when he avoids injury. The 29-year-old twice led the National League in home runs with the Miami Marlins, including an MLB-best 59 home runs two years ago.

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Limited to fewer than 120 games by injury in three of the four seasons prior to his epic 2017 campaign, Stanton’s health should once again benefit from regular appearances as the Yankees’ designated hitter. However, health issues remain an issue in New York.

Judge Poised to Duplicate Record-Setting Rookie Season

Injuries limited outfielder Aaron Judge to just 112 games last season after he set a new MLB record for home runs by a rookie with  52 long balls in 2017, a figure that led the American League.

The loss of Judge to a wrist injury on July 26 did not slow down the Yankees’ torrid pace

However, the loss of Judge to a wrist injury on July 26 did not slow down the Yankees’ torrid pace, with the club’s sluggers connecting on a season-high 53 home runs during the month of August. Most memorable was a spectacular five-home run performance featuring dingers from four different Yankees hitters in a 7-3 rout of the Texas Rangers on August 9.

Judge has looked health, cracking five home runs so far in Grapefruit League action, and closely trails Stanton as a +900 favorite to lead the majors in home runs in 2019.

Gregorius, Hicks, Andujar Key to 2018 Record, but Injuries a Concern

The key to success in the Yankees’ bid to top last season’s home run record will be strong repeat performances from sluggers further down the lineup. Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, and Miguel Andujar each matched Judge with 27 home runs in 2018.

Andujar looks poised to build on his impressive debut at third base with the Yankees. He added 92 RBI and a .297 batting average to his homer total, and is pegged as a -115 bet to top 22.5 dingers this season.

Lingering injury concerns continue to dog both Gregorius and Hicks, however. The Yankees shortstop continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery, while Hicks has been plagued by a back injury throughout spring training.

Tulowitzki, Sanchez Entering 2019 Campaign with Lots to Prove

Toronto Blue Jays castoff Troy Tulowitski will be expected to pick up the slack in Gregorius’ absence. The 34-year-old missed all of last season due to ongoing ankle issues, but has topped 20 home runs seven times over a 12-year major league career.

Catcher Gary Sanchez must also rebound following a lost season in 2018. Sanchez appeared in just 89 games last season after cracking a career-high 30 home runs in 122 appearances in 2017, and is pegged as a -115 bet to hit over 24.5 home runs in 2019.

The need for so many things to go right for the Yankees has fueled short -300 odds of the team falling short of last season’s home run record. However, there is no denying the enormous slugging talent on this Yankees squad, which sits perched as +600 chalk on the World Series.

And with New York looking forward to feasting on a trio of AL East rivals likely headed for sub-.500 seasons, there is plenty of value in a +200 wager on the Yankees making history once again.

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