Orioles vs Red Sox Odds, Lines & Picks (Sep. 29)
- Boston is a -160 home favorite over Baltimore in the Orioles vs Red Sox odds on Thursday, September 29
- Baltimore and Boston are deadlocked 9-9 straight up as they head into the final game of the season against each other
- The Orioles haven’t won the season series from the Red Sox since 2017
The 2022 MLB season isn’t turning out as projected for either of the Baltimore Orioles (80-75, 36-41) or Boston Red Sox (74-81, 39-38 home).
Boston was expected to be an American League playoff contender. Instead, the Red Sox are last in the AL East and heading for their worst record in a full season since 2014. Meanwhile, though they’re coming up short in the end, the Orioles were challenging for a playoff spot for the first time since 2016, which was also the last time Baltimore finished with a winning record.
The Orioles are also in position to win the season series from the Red Sox for the first time in five years. Oddsmakers, though, aren’t banking on that happening. The Red Sox are -160 home favorites in the final game of the season between these two old rivals.
Orioles vs Red Sox Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | +135 | +1.5 (-145) | O 9 (-115) |
| Boston Red Sox | -160 | -1.5 (+122) | U 9 (-105) |
Odds as of September 28 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.
At moneyline odds of -160, the Red Sox have an implied probability of victory of 61.54% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Boston would create a payout of $16.30.
First pitch at Fenway Park goes at 1:35 pm ET on Thursday, September 29. The weather forecast is calling for cloudy skies with 4 mph wind and a temperature of 61 degrees.
MLB betting trends are displaying a division in where the wagers are going. There’s 71% of the public betting splits on the moneyline are backing the Red Sox. Baltimore is drawing 52% of runline bets. There’s also 52% of public money going with the under on the total.
Baltimore vs Boston Probable Pitchers
In Thursday’s MLB lineups, the Orioles give the ball to right-hander Mike Baumann. Recalled from the minor leagues at the start of September, Baumann is making his third start and fifth appearance of the month.
For #Orioles on Thursday it will be Mike Baumann vs #RedSox. 1-3 (.250) with a 4.32 in 11 games (2 starts) of 2022. 0-1 with a 22.50 ERA and 3.500 WHIP in 1 career appearance (0 starts) vs BOS.
— Red Sox Nation Stats (@RSNStats) September 29, 2022
He worked out of the bullpen in April, making one appearance each in May and June. Baumann’s longest outing of the season was a five-inning stint in a September 5 start at Toronto. He took the loss in a 7-3 Blue Jays victory, allowing eight hits and three earned runs in five innings of work.
Baumann has lost his last three decisions, although two of those losses came in April. His once career appearance against the Red Sox was dismal. Baumann allowed six hits and five earned runs over two innings for a 22.50 ERA. He took the loss as well.
Baumann vs Eovaldi Stats
| 1-3 | Record | 5-3 |
| 4.32 | ERA | 4.15 |
| 5.37 | xERA | 4.40 |
| 1.44 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 2.13 | SO/W Ratio | 5.33 |
Returning from a rehab assignment, Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is being activated from the 15-day IL to make the start in this game. He’ll only be making his 18th start of the season and his first since August 12. Last season, Eovaldi led the AL with 32 games started.
Nathan Eovaldi final line with the WooSox: 3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
He hit a batter and allowed a homer. He tossed 57 pitches, 35 of them for strikes. #RedSox • #DirtyWater • #MLB pic.twitter.com/syYO3XXIdV
— Obstructed View: Red Sox Podcast 🎙 (@ObstructView) September 23, 2022
Eovaldi’s FIP of 1.06 is lower than his league-leading 1.07 number of last season, but he hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify for the title. He’s 4-1 over his last five decisions, but that data stretches back to May 28.
In that May 28 start, he beat the Orioles 5-3. Eovaldi hurled a complete game, allowing two earned runs and striking out six. Over his career, Eovaldi is 8-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 17 starts against Baltimore.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Red Sox Batters | Batting Average vs Baumann | Orioles Batters | Batting Average vs Eovaldi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | 1.000 | Austin Hays | .348 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.000 | Ryan Mountcastle | .375 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 1.000 | Cedric Mullins | .296 |
Boston’s Xander Bogaerts is 2-for-2 (1.000) against Baumann with a home run and four RBI. Rafael Devers (2-for-2) and Enrique Hernandez (1-for-1) are also batting 1.000 against the Baltimore hurler.
There's nothing like a Raffy no-doubter. @JetBlue's #FlyestPlays pic.twitter.com/GvGahJw7Ye
— Red Sox (@RedSox) September 27, 2022
For the Orioles, Ryan Mountcastle is 6-for-16 (.375) when facing Eovaldi. Austin Hays is 8-for-23 (.348) with two RBI. Cedric Mullins is 8-for-27 (.296) with two RBI. Robinson Chirinos has a homer and two RBI.
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction
Eovaldi may be rusty, but he’s still an established big-league pitcher, which is more than can be said for Baumann.
Hump Day W.
FINAL: #RedSox 3, Orioles 1#DirtyWater pic.twitter.com/nVLggcwL00
— Red Sox (@RedSox) September 29, 2022
The postseason dreams of the Orioles went up in smoke thanks to a dismal September. They’re 1-4 SU over the past five games and 9-14 since September 4.
Boston has won four in a row SU from Baltimore.
Pick: Boston Red Sox ML (-160)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
