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Over/Under for Bryce Harper Home Runs in 2019 Set at 34.5

Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper, seen here at the 2016 All-Star Game, is starting his first season with the Phillies this year. Photo by Arturo Pardavila III (wikipedia commons) [CC License].
  • Harper hit 34 home runs and had 100 RBI’s last season.
  • The Philadelphia Phillies signed Harper to a 13-year, $300-million contract in the offseason.
  • Bryce Harper is the all-time leader in slugging percentage at Citizens Bank Park.

Bryce Harper signed the most lucrative contract in NFL history this offseason when the Philadelphia Phillies inked him to a 13-year, $330 million contract. There are props on some of his season-long stats, so let’s take a closer look at where there’s value on the board.

2019 Bryce Harper Stats Last 5 Seasons

Year AVG HR RBI R
2014 .273 13 32 41
2015 .330 42 99 118
2016 .243 24 86 84
2017 .319 29 87 95
2018 .249 34 100 103

 

2019 Bryce Harper Batting Average

Total Odds
Over .267 -115
Under .267 -115

Batting Average

Harper is looking at an over-under of .267, which is a tricky total for him. While his power numbers are usually consistent, his average has been a roller coaster ride over the years. Over his last five campaigns, he’s been at .249, .319, .243, .330 and .273.

Harper’s career average is .279, so being 30 points off of it last year represents a sizeable decline. However, he’ll be moving to a new team and a new situation, which should revitalize him. Even so, in 50 career games at his new home – Citizens Bank Park – Harper is batting .268.

I tend to agree with the Oliver projections for Harper that show that an optimistic year would have him in the .288 range, a standard year would put him around .262 and a down season would have him at around .236. There’s more downside with his average than upside, in my opinion.

The Pick: Under .267 (-115)

2019 Bryce Harper Home Runs

Total Odds
Over 34.5 -115
Under 34.5 -115

Total Home Runs

While the average might be a bit of a toss-up, the home run would be the prop where I go over. Harper hit 34 home last year and is now moving to a hitter-friendly ballpark.

It’s a little-known fact but Harper is the all-time leader in slugging percentage at Citizens Bank Park, which is very encouraging for this prop.

On top of that, if you flesh out the numbers from last season, take a look at the balls he hit and see where they project at Citizens Bank Park (versus Nationals Park), you would see he hit about 10 balls that stayed in Nationals Park that would have been home runs in Philly. I expect Harper in the 40-home run ranks.

The Pick: Over 34.5 home runs (-115)

2019 Bryce Harper RBIs

Total Odds
Over 97.5 -115
Under 97.5 -115

Total Runs Batted In

RBI’s is another prop where I’ll be betting the over with Harper. We’re looking at 97.5 but we should see him in the 100+ range through his first few seasons in Philadelphia. His career-best is 100, which seems a bit low for a player of his caliber.

All of the FanGraphs projections show that Harper will have at least 94 runs batted in with all but two of them at 100 or more. With Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura in front of him, we should see Harper set a new career-high for RBI’s this season.

The Pick: Over 97.5 RBIs (-115)

2019 Bryce Harper Runs Scored

Total Odds
Over 97.5 -115
Under 97.5 -115

Total Runs Scored

Of course, one of the things that makes Harper an MVP-caliber player is that he not only hits for power, he is also a beast on the bases. He averages 10.7 stolen bases per year and has averaged exactly 100.0 runs per season over the last four.

I do like the over here once again because of who is hitting behind him. Harper has a healthy on-base percentage, for the most part, and he’ll have Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto stepping up to the plate behind him. Considering I like him to hit 40 home runs, he should find another 60 runs (or so) through other ways to get over the number.

The Pick: Over 97.5 runs scored (-115)

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