Padres vs Rockies Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (August 18)

• The San Diego Padres are -145 favorites over the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday (August 18th, 3:10 pm ET)
• San Diego will give the ball to Jake Arrieta (5-11, 6.88 ERA), while Colorado will counter with Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.06 ERA)
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Desperate times call for desperate measures. Down two starting pitchers, the San Diego Padres have taken a chance on former NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The struggling right-hander will be thrust into action on Wednesday afternoon (August 18th) as San Diego closes out a three-game series with the Colorado Rockies.

Padres vs Rockies Odds

Odds as of August 17th at DraftKings.

First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 pm ET, and the forecast in Denver calls for sunshine and 95 degree temperatures.

The Padres are currently a -145 favorite, in a game that features a sky-high total of 14. Arrieta’s struggles have a lot to do with the high/over, as does the thin air at Coors Field, and Rockies starter Chi Chi Gonzalez.

Probable Pitchers

Gonzalez is also being thrown to the wolves on Wednesday, after Austin Gomber was placed on paternity leave. Gonzalez hasn’t pitched  in the big leagues since July 23rd after testing positive for COVID, but his results prior to his hiatus were not pretty.

With Austin Gomber going on paternity leave, #Rockies will start Chi Chi Gonzalez on Wednesday vs. #Padres.
Pitch count 70-80.

— Patrick Saunders (@psaundersdp) August 17, 2021

The right-hander has surrendered 11 runs in his past two starts, and has yielded .302 average to enemy hitters this season. He’s faced the Padres twice in 2021, including once at Coors Field where he allowed four runs and six hits over 6 innings.

Arrieta vs Gonzalez

Each of his past four starts have produced a total of at least 12, and he sports a 5.36 ERA at home in nine appearances. The matchup versus San Diego is not ideal, as the Padres rank fifth in the NL in runs per game, sixth in slugging, and third in OPS+. Their lineup features MVP favorite Fernando Tatis Jr, as well as fellow All-Stars Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Arrieta meanwhile, brings a wealth of experience to his new club, but also some miserable recent results. He gave up 21 runs over his final four starts before being released by the Chicago Cubs, failing to make it out of the 5th inning in each outing.

Padres went from “on the verge of acquiring Scherzer,” to signing Jake Arrieta for rotation help. AJ Preller is not good.

— Payton J. Havermann (@paytonisnotroll) August 16, 2021

He pitched at Coors Field less than two weeks ago for the Cubs, and was tagged for nine hits and four runs over 4 innings. He’s having the worst statistical season of his career, posting a FIP of 6.12 and a WAR of -0.7, and his 2.19 HR/9 rate has got to be worrisome for San Diego playing in baseball’s most hitter friendly park.

Also working against Arrieta is Colorado’s massive home/road splits. The Rockies average 2.83 more runs per game at Coors Field, boasting an .835 OPS versus just .608 on the road.

Padres vs Rockies Pick

Despite the favorable matchup for both teams, betting the over in this game is out of the question. It’s a full run higher than each of the first two games of the series, and it’s a number that all five matchups between these two teams at Coors field this season have failed to clear.

The under has actually hit in 55.2% of Rockies home games this season, and even if Arrieta flames out early, San Diego still features an elite corps of relievers. The Padres bullpen ranks first in the NL in xFIP, second in WAR, and sixth in K/9 rate. This game’s total could easily reach double-digits, but wagering on it to exceed 14 runs seems like a bit too much to ask.

Pick: Under 14 (-110)