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Phillies vs Marlins Odds, Betting Lines, and Picks (Oct. 3)

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Oct 2, 2021 · 8:57 PM PDT

Jazz Chisholm Jr celebrates, Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2) and left fielder Lewis Brinson, right, celebrate after a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies, Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, in Miami. Miami won 3-1. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies are -140 road favorites over the Miami Marlins in a game between NL East rivals on Sunday, October 3
  • In the last five games played at Miami between these two teams, the Marlins show three wins
  • Through 18 games against each other this season, each team has nine wins

In the race for the National League East Division title, the Philadelphia Phillies (82-79, 35-45 away) came up short. Depending upon perspective, the Miami Marlins (66-95, 41-39 home) can take credit, or receive blame for at least being part of the cause of Philly’s demise. The Marlins have won nine of 18 games from Philadelphia this season.

The Phillies enter the final day of the MLB regular season five games behind the division-winning Atlanta Braves. Playing .500 ball against the cellar-dwelling team in their division proved costly to Philadelphia.

If it’s any consolation, oddsmakers are picking the Phillies as -140 road favorites to get the victory Sunday and win the season series from the Marlins. Philadelphia is just 14-18 as an away favorite this season.

Phillies vs Marlins Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Philadelphia Phillies -140 -1.5 (+130) O 7 (-105)
Miami Marlins +120 +1.5 (-150) U 7 (-115)

Odds as of October 2nd at DraftKings

First pitch for Sunday’s game at LoanDepot park is slated for 3:10pm ET. The weather forecast is calling for chance of a showers, 19 mph wind and a temperature of 88 degrees.

Lopez Wraps Marlins’ Season

Originally, right-hander and NL Cy Young Award candidate Zack Wheeler was the scheduled starter for the Phillies. However, with nothing to play for, Philadelphia manager Joe Girardi decided to shut down Wheeler for the season.

Certainly, Wheeler’s absence figures to change the betting line on his game. He’s been a sensation this season. Wheeler will finish 14-10 with a 2.78 ERA. He leads all of baseball in innings pitched, complete games (3), shutouts (2), batters faced (849) and pitching bWAR (7.5). Wheeler leads the National League with 247 strikeouts. According to FanGraphs, he’s second in the NL in FIP (2.58) and WAR (7.3).

The Phillies haven’t named a starter for Sunday, but it will either be right-hander Adonis Medina or lefty Bailey Falter.

Marlins right-hander Pablo Lopez was also enjoying a stellar year when he was shut down in July with a rotator cuff strain in his pitching shoulder.

After an 0-3 start to the year, Lopez went 5-2 over his next seven decisions. He was 3-1 in his last four verdicts when the injury brought a halt to his season.  Lopez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 19 starts during the 2021 season.

He faced the Phils once his season, on May 27. Lopez worked seven innings, allowing two earned runs. He didn’t figure in the decision as Philadelphia won 3-2.

Lopez threw two innings in a rehab appearance at Triple-A Jacksonville on September 2. As well, he worked three simulated innings during a bullpen session this past Tuesday. Last season, his 3.09 FIP ranked 15th among MLB pitchers who threw at least 50 innings.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Phillies Batters Batting Average vs Lopez
Alec Bohm .167
Freddy Galvis .333
Didi Gregorius .000
Bryce Harper .400
Odubel Herrera .333
Travis Jankowski .000
Andrew Knapp .000
Andrew McCutchen .200
Brad Miller .250
JT Realmuto .000
Jean Segura .333
Ronald Torreyes .000
Matt Vierling .000

Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper is 4-for-10 (.400) with three RBI when facing Lopez. Third baseman Freddy Galvis is 1-for-3 with a homer and four RBI.

Philadelphia second baseman Jean Segura is 2-for-6 (.333) with an RBI. Centerfielder Odubel Herrera is also 2-for-6 (.333).

Phillies vs Marlins Pick

Segura (back) missed the past two games but may start Sunday. Phillies backup catcher Andrew Knapp is batting .156. That’s the lowest average for a Phillies player with at least 150 plate appearances in a season since Don Casey hit .152 in 1886.

The Phillies recalled right-hander Seranthony Dominguez and he’ll pitch at some point on Sunday. Just 26, he’s making his return from Tommy John surgery. Dominguez was going to be a key piece for the Phils bullpen before the injury. He has not appeared in MLB since 2019.

From 2018-19, Dominguez made 80 MLB appearances. He posted a 3.27 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 30.2% strikeout rate, and 10.0% walk rate.

A 3-1 win on Saturday by the Marlins ended a two-game winning streak for Philly in Miami. The Marlins have won 8 of the past 12 games from the Phillies in Miami.

Pick: Miami Marlins (+120).

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