Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Odds, Picks & Predictions (July 8)

• San Francisco Giants send Robbie Ray to the mound to face the Philadelphia Phillies and Taijuan Walker at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park
• The Giants won the first game of the series, but the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine games after a loss
• Below, see the Phillies vs Giants odds (moneyline, runline, total) plus my favorite Phillies/Giants picks for Tuesday, July 8

The San Francisco Giants (50-42, 26-17 home, 41-48-2 O/U) host the Philadelphia Phillies (53-38, 23-22 away, 36-50-4 O/U) in the second game of a three-game set at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 pm ET and the pitching matchup pits San Francisco’s Robbie Ray against Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker.

In the first table below, I have set out the full slate of Phillies/Giants odds. Under the odds, find key stats and my Phillies vs Giants picks and predictions.

Phillies vs Giants Odds

Tuesday’s MLB odds establish the Giants as moderate home favorites, currently sitting at -149 (59.84% implied win probability). The Phillies are +125 underdogs on the moneyline (44.44%). Removing the juice, the odds give the Giants a 57.4% implied win probability with the Phillies getting the remaining 42.6%.

The run total is sitting at 8.5 with the under slightly favored at -118. That total reflects Ray’s relative dominance this season and the pitcher-friendly nature of Oracle Park.

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The Giants took the series-opener on Monday night with a 3-1 victory. The game was a tight pitcher’s duel for seven innings before the Giants broke a 1-1 tie in the bottom of the eighth. San Francisco starter Landen Roupp was effective, allowing just one run over five innings, while Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sánchez was brilliant, striking out eight and allowing only one run in seven frames. The difference was the bullpens; reliever Orion Kerkering took the loss for the Phillies. Matt Chapman was the offensive star for the Giants, going 3-for-4 with a double and two of the team’s three runs

PHI vs SFG Odds Movement

The Phillies/Giants betting market has seen significant movement, particularly on the total and runline. The total opened at 8.0 runs and has been bet up to 8.5, a move largely driven by public money, as 78.9% of all tickets are on the over in Tuesday’s MLB public betting splits. This presents a potential value opportunity for under bettors who now have an extra half-run of cushion.

On the runline, the price for the Phillies +1.5 has become more expensive, moving from -146 to as high as -182, while the Giants -1.5 has become more attractive, shifting from +122 to +150.

The moneyline has seen a slight shift toward the Phillies from an opening line of -164 on the Giants, a move that aligns with betting splits showing sharp money leaning towards the underdog visitors. This divergence between public ticket count (favoring the Giants) and money flow (favoring the Phillies) often signals a sharps-vs-public showdown.

Starting Pitcher vs Batter History

With both pitchers deep into their careers, there is ample batter/pitcher history to analyze. But it’s important to note that Walker has turned into a bullpen arm for the Phillies and, when he has started recently, has functioned as an opener.

Walker’s last outing of more than 2.2 innings came back in May. So San Francisco’s past performance against the Phillies relievers will be as significant as their history against Walker.

Philadelphia Phillies Career Statistics vs Robbie Ray

As a group, the Phillies are hitting a pedestrian .253 against Ray with a .762 OPS in 79 total at-bats. Bryce Harper has clubbed two of the three home runs, with Nick Castellanos accounting for the other.

JT Realmuto has been particularly ineffective against Ray, going 1-for-12 with six strikeouts and just one walk.

San Francisco Giants Career Statistics vs Taijuan Walker

The Giants are hitting a considerably higher .298 against Walker but with a slightly lower .749 OPS in 84 total at-bats. Only one San Francisco player (Willy Adames) has taken Walker yard before, and he’s done so twice in just eight at-bats.

Matt Chapman has the most-concerning numbers against Walker, sporting an 0-for-11 bagel, though he’s only struck out twice.

Phillies vs Giants Player Props

MLB batter props represent the consensus across sportsbooks as of Tuesday morning. Exact odds will vary depending on the book.

The props reveal a lot about market expectations. Robbie Ray’s strikeout total is set at a healthy 6.5, a testament to his swing-and-miss stuff, though the juice is on the under, acknowledging the Phillies’ lineup discipline.

Taijuan Walker, on the other hand, has a very low strikeout prop of 2.5 and an innings pitched line of just 3.2 (based on 11.5 outs). As mentioned above, Walker hasn’t pitched more than 2.2 innings in nearly two months.

SF Giants vs PHI Phillies Picks

• Under 8.5 runs (-118)
• San Francisco Giants moneyline (-149)
• Walker under 3.2 innings/11.5 outs

The core of this handicap lies in the pitching matchup and the venue. Robbie Ray has been nothing short of an ace for the Giants, posting a dominant 2.68 ERA and providing a steadying presence atop the rotation. Pitching at home in Oracle Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in baseball, gives him a significant advantage against the Phillies lineup.

While a few Philly hitters have had success against him in small samples, Ray’s overall body of work this season is far more telling. On the other side, Taijuan Walker has been serviceable but vulnerable. His career numbers against the current Giants roster are concerning, with hitters like Patrick Bailey and Willy Adames boasting impressive numbers.

The betting trends paint a compelling picture for a low-scoring affair. The Under has hit in 66.7% of the Phillies’ road games and 60.5% of the Giants’ home games this season. With Ray on the mound and the total pushed up to 8.5, the under is my favorite bet on the board.

I’m also going to bet the under on Walker’s innings/outs prop (3.2 innings/11.5 outs). He isn’t functioning as a starter these days and was yanked after 2.0 innings in his last start against Atlanta (June 27) despite surrendering just one hit and no runs on 43 pitches.