Upcoming Match-ups

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: Preview & Prediction

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 18, 2018 · 8:39 AM PDT

Phillies' 3B Maikal Franco screaming at the ump.
Maikal Franco shouldn't be so upset; the Phillies are 10-6 and he leads the team with 17 RBIs. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].

Philadelphia’s Vince Velasquez and Atlanta’s Brandon McCarthy will both try to keep their impressive 2018 seasons going tonight (April 18, 7:07 PM) when the Phillies and Braves meet in the rubber match of a three-game series.

With the Mets on fire and the Nationals finding their groove, neither Philly nor Atlanta can afford to fall too far back in the NL East race if they have serious playoff aspirations.

Below, find the opening odds, key statistics and betting trends, weather forecast, and score prediction for tonight’s game.

Opening Odds

MONEYLINE RUNLINE O/U RUNS
PHILLIES (-101) PHILLIES +1.5 (-207) OVER 8.5 (+100)
BRAVES (-109) BRAVES -1.5 (+177) UNDER 8.5 (-120)

After getting hammered by Atlanta in his first start (2.2 IP, 9 H, 7 R), Velasquez has been very solid in his last two, going a combined 12.2 innings while giving up just eight hits and two earned runs and striking out 13.

Take that with a grain of salt, though, since his last two starts came against the Marlins and Rays, two teams with less than potent offenses. The control he’s demonstrated has nonetheless been impressive, with just two walks over those 12.2 innings.

If [Brandon McCarthy] can keep his ERA around 3.40 for a full season, it would be a career year [for the 12-year vet].

McCarthy has outdone expectations so far in his first season with the Braves, and has been remarkably consistent in this first three starts. He’s gone between 5.0 to 6.0 innings in each one, and has given up between four and six hits, and one to three runs. Atlanta has taken advantage of those performances, winning all three of his starts, though McCarthy wound up with a no decision against Washington last time out.

If he can keep his ERA around 3.30 for a full season, it would be a career year. Last season was the first time the 12-year vet posted an ERA lower than 4.00 when making at least 15 starts, and he barely squeaked under that threshold with a 3.98 ERA in 16 starts for the Dodgers.

Team Stats

PHILLIES STATISTIC BRAVES
10-6 (5-5 Away) RECORD 9-7 (5-3 Home)
+24 RUN DIFFERENTIAL +23
RHP Vince Velasquez: 1-1, 3.52 ERA, 1.37 WHIP  PROBABLE STARTER RHP Brandon McCarthy: 2-0, 3.31 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
 .356 BA, .965 OPS (in 45 at-bats) LINEUP VS OPPONENT STARTER .306 BA, .747 OPS (in 62 at-bats)
3.38 ERA (13th in MLB) BULLPEN ERA 2.73 ERA (7th in MLB)
.710 (16th in MLB) TEAM OPS .780 (4th in MLB)
13-6 (5-4 Away)  2017 HEAD-TO-HEAD 6-13 (4-5 Home)

Betting Results & Trends

PHILLIES  TREND BRAVES
 Won 1 WIN/LOSS STREAK Lost 1
4-1 LAST 5 3-2
7-9 RUNLINE RECORD 8-7
7-8-1 OVER/UNDER SPLIT 5-8-3
Under 2 OVER/UNDER STREAK Under 2

The Phillies were able to even this three-game set at one apiece last night (5-1) thanks to a steady start from Nick Pivetta, excellent relief pitching, and some clutch hitting from Rhys Hoskins in extras.

YouTube video

Weather Forecast at Opening Pitch

TEMPERATURE 79°
HUMIDITY 34%
WIND SPEED SW 16 MPH (crosswind to left field)
P.O.P. 0%

Score Prediction

PHILLIES 6
BRAVES 5

Both starters have been good out of the gate, but both also have god-awful numbers against the opposing lineup in not-insignificant sample sizes. The Phillies .356 average and .965 OPS against McCarthy is particularly concerning. Add in the utter domination Philly exhibited in the season series last year, and getting them at even money looks like decent value.

The better play here, though, may be the over (8.5) at +100. Both of these lineups can put up runs, and the starters are overachieving.

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