Phillies vs Braves Game 1 Predictions & Odds

• The Phillies travel to Atlanta for Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS with the Braves on Tuesday afternoon (1:07 pm ET)
• Atlanta is a big home favorite behind Max Fried while the Phils counter with Ranger Suarez
• Below, see the Game 1 Phillies vs Braves predictions and odds

The MLB’s 2022 Division Series get underway bright and early on Tuesday with Game 1 between the Philadelphia Phillies (87-75, 40-41 away) and Atlanta Braves (101-61, 55-26 home).

Thanks to home-field advantage and a big edge on the mound – at least in the eyes of oddsmakers – the Braves are heavy favorites to take the early lead in the best-of-five series.

Game 1 Phillies vs Braves Odds

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At -205, Atlanta has a 67.21% implied win probability in Tuesday’s MLB odds. A $100 wager would only net a $49 profit. The game total is sitting at 7.5, which is actually the highest of the four games on today’s MLB schedule. But the odds are shaded to the under (-124) while the over is in plus money at +104.

First pitch at Truist Park is scheduled for 1:07 pm ET on what should be a lovely fall afternoon. There is 0% chance of rain and a modest 7 MPH wind blowing right to left.

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Philadelphia vs Atlanta Game 1 Probable Pitchers

One of the main reasons for the lopsided odds in Game 1 is the matchup on the mound. The rested Braves give the ball to their ace, Max Fried. One of the top contenders all year in the NL Cy Young odds, the 28-year-old also has considerably more playoff experience than his Phillies counterpart.

Fried was integral in Atlanta’s march to a World Series championship last season, pitching 27.2 innings over five starts. In total, he has 57.2 innings of postseason experience under his belt and, while his 4.02 playoff ERA could certainly be better, he has a penchant for starting strong.

In the 2020 NL Wild Card, he pitched seven shutout innings against the Reds, giving up just six hits and no walks while striking out five. In his first start of the 2021 postseason, he pitched six scoreless against the Brewers, surrendering just three hits and no walks while fanning nine. 

Suarez vs Fried Stats

Suarez, meanwhile, will be making his first career postseason appearance. The 27-year-old Venezuelan had a solid if not spectacular regular season for the Phils. He made a career-high 29 starts while recording a 3.65 ERA and 1.333 WHIP.

His control is a problem at times, issuing 58 walks and posting an uninspiring 2.22-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Suarez made five starts against Atlanta this year so the Braves should be extremely familiar with his stuff. Philly went 2-3 in those five starts, though Suarez did seem to improve as the year went on. He was hammered for five earned runs over 4.1 innings against the Braves in May, and another four earned over 6.1 innings in June (both Philadelphia losses).

In the other three starts, he surrendered just four runs (only two earned) over 17 innings of work and Philly went 2-1.

Fried made four starts against the Phillies in 2022. Atlanta went 2-2 while Fried himself was up-and-down. Overall, he gave up eight earned runs over 23 innings of work (3.19 ERA).

PHI vs ATL Recent H2H Trends

Atlanta won the season series from Philly quite handily, going 11-8 overall and 6-3 at home. That was just par for the course for the Braves at home this year. Atlanta was a dazzling 55-26 at Truist Park in 2022. Only the Dodgers and Yankees (both 57-24) were better in their home parks.

The Phillies’ play on the road was a different story. They only managed a 40-41 record away from home, the second-worst road record among playoff teams.

That didn’t stop them in the Wild Card round, though, dispatching the Cardinals in the minimum two games at Busch Stadium. The Phillies got outstanding pitching from both of their starters against the Redbirds. They captured the first game 6-3 after Zack Wheeler pitched the first 6.1 innings scoreless. Aaron Nola followed that up with another 6.2 shutout innings in Game 2, which ended in a 2-0 Phillies victory.

Oddsmakers view Atlanta as a legitimate threat to repeat as World Series champs. The Braves are +450 third-favorites in the World Series odds. Philadelphia has the third-longest odds of the eight remaining teams at +1200.

Phillies vs Braves Game 1 Prediction

Laying -205 juice is not an appetizing play. Instead, I am going to back Fried’s streak of starting the postseason strong. My favorite way to do that is to be the Phillies team total under 1.5 (-155) in the first five innings. He’s rested; he’s at home; and he’s shown he loves being in this spot.

Pick: Phillies first 5 innings under 1.5 (-155)