Phillies vs Dodgers Expert Picks, Player Props & Best Bets for NLDS Game 4

• The Philadelphia Phillies aim to even the NLDS with the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 on Thursday
• Big righty Tyler Glasnow starts for the Dodgers against lefty Cristopher Sánchez for the Phillies
• Check out my favorite Phillies vs Dodgers picks and predictions, along with the Game 4 odds and player props

The Philadelphia Phillies (96-66, 41-40 away) staved off elimination last night and now have the chance to even their best-of-five NLDS with the Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69, 52-29) in Game 4 on Thursday afternoon at Chavez Ravine (3:08 pm PT/6:08 pm ET).

The Phillies turn back to Game 1 starter Cristopher Sánchez (13-5, 2.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) while the Dodgers counter with 6’8 Tyler Glasnow (4-3, 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), who pitched 1.2 innings in relief of Shohei Ohtani during LAD’s 5-3 Game 1 victory.

The road team has won each of the first three games of the series, but Los Angeles remains a slight home favorite in the Game 4 Phillies/Dodgers odds.

Go to: Game 4 Odds || Player Props || Picks || Hitter-vs-Pitcher Stats

PHI vs LAD Game 4 Odds

The Dodgers enter this pivotal home game as favorites on the moneyline, listed at -126 at FanDuel and slightly shorter elsewhere. The Phillies come back as +110 underdogs at bet365 (slightly shorter at other books). Without the vig, the current moneyline prices give the Dodgers a 54.2% implied win probability, leaving 45.8% for the Phillies.

The total ranges from 7.5 to 8.0; if under bettors want the higher number, they’ll have to eat -122 juice at DraftKings. If over bettors want the lower numbers, they’ll have to stomach -122 juice at FanDuel. The teams combined for eight runs in Game 1, seven in Game 2, and 10 last night in Game 3.

Odds commentary as of 1:04 pm ET. The MLB odds in the table will update automatically with the best available price if the lines move before first pitch.

Odds Movement Ahead of Game 4

The betting market has seen significant movement since the opening lines were posted last night. Initially, the consensus line opened with the Phillies as slight favorites (around -118), but a wave of money in the MLB public betting splits has flipped the script, situating the Dodgers as favorites.

The total has also seen notable action, climbing from 7.5 to a flat 8.0 at most sportsbooks.

Dodgers vs Phillies Game 4 Player Props

MLB player props as of October 9 at DraftKings.

For the pitcher props, Glasnow’s strikeout line at 5.5 is intriguing. The Phillies lineup has swing-and-miss potential, and Glasnow’s high-octane arsenal makes the Over (-161) a strong possibility. But it’s not clear how long manager Dave Roberts is planning to use his starter.

Sánchez faces a daunting task against the Dodgers. His earned runs prop is set at 2.5, with the over priced at +125. The over is a tempting bet considering Teoscar Hernández’s career success against the lefty.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Prediction

• Phillies moneyline (+110) at bet365
• Over 7.5 (-122) at FanDuel
• Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases (+126) at Underdog

The pressure is squarely on the Los Angeles Dodgers to protect home field, but I’m not sold that Tyler Glasnow is the man for the job. He didn’t give up a run in his 1.2 innings in Game 1, but he did allow two hits and two walks. He doesn’t have a great history against the Phillies, either (.741 OPS in 69 at-bats).

On the other side, Cristopher Sánchez certainly has a tough assignment, but he navigated LA’s tough lineup with relative aplomb in Game 1. He pitched five shutout innings before the LA bats finally got to him for two earned runs in the fifth. Sánchez allowed just four hits and two walks over 5.2 IP. The Dodger hitter that’s given him the most trouble over the years, Teoscar Hernandez, was flailing in Game 1. Sánchez – who isn’t really known as a strikeout pitchers – got him to whiff three times in three at-bats.

The Phillies have been road warriors recently, posting a 6-1 record in their last seven as road underdogs.

Several betting trends support a high-scoring game. The over has hit in six of the Dodgers’ last seven playoff games and in 10 of the Phillies’ last 12 games against winning teams. With the Dodgers’ offense poised to rebound and the Phillies carrying momentum from their Game 3 power surge, runs should be on the menu.

Batter-vs-Starting Pitcher History

The Phillies batters have 69 total at-bats against Glasnow and the results haven’t been terribly encouraging for either the batters or the pitcher.

Philadelphia Phillies Career Statistics vs Tyler Glasnow

Max Kepler has the best history against Glasnow, going 3-for-5 with a home run. No other Phillies batter has a home run off Glasnow in 69 total at-bats.

Bryce Harper is the other player Glasnow needs to look out for; the two-time MVP has a .333 average and .968 OPS off Glasnow in 12 at-bats.

Los Angeles Dodgers Career Statistics vs Cristopher Sánchez

Sánchez has held the Dodgers to a fairly low .244 average and .691 OPS in a large sample size of 123 at-bats. There are hitters who have seen him, well, though: Teoscar Hernandez has a 1.200 OPS with four extra-base hits (two home runs) in 15 at-bats. Alex Call is 3-for-11 with two homers as well.

Mookie Betts (2-for-9 with two singles) and Shohei Ohtani (4-for-19 with four singles) are notable names that Sánchez has navigated almost seamlessly.

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