Phillies vs Guardians Odds, Picks & Prediction for Sunday Night Baseball (May 11)

• A pair of second-place teams meet on Sunday Night Baseball when the Phillies visit the Guardians
• Philadelphia sends ace Zack Wheeler to the mound opposite Cleveland’s Luis Ortiz
• See the Phillies vs Guardians odds, picks, and predictions for Sunday Night Baseball tonight

Sunday Night Baseball on May 11 brings an intriguing interleague battle between the Philadelphia Phillies (23-16, 10-10 away, 18-20-1 O/U), who sit 1.5 games back of the NL East lead, and Cleveland Guardians (23-16, 12-6 home, 20-16-3), who sit 2.5 back in the AL Central.

Veteran ace Zack Wheeler (3-1, 3.35 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) toes the rubber for the Phillies while 26-year-old Luis L. Ortiz (2-3, 5.30 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) gets the nod for the Guardians. The mismatch on the mound has led sportsbooks to position Philadelphia as a heavy road favorite in Sunday’s MLB odds.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Odds

Roughly five hours from first pitch, the Phillies are positioned as -170 road favorites, with the Guardians coming back as +143 home underdogs. The run total is just 7.0 with the over slightly favored at -115.

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The teams split the first two games of the series in lopsided fashion, with Cleveland taking a 6-0 shutout victory on Friday and Philadelphia answering back with a 7-1 rout on Saturday, powered by a three-hit, one-home day from Bryce Harper.

PHI vs CLE Pitching Matchup: Wheeler vs Ortiz

Two-time Cy Young-runner-up Wheeler has seen his ERA grow from 2.54 last season to 3.35 this year, but his peripherals indicate it will decrease in the coming weeks and months. Wheeler’s x.36 xERA and 2.51 xFIP are better than any season in his ten-year career, and his current 33.3% strikeout rate is the highest it’s ever been.

Yes, it’s still early in the year, but given that he’s posted a sub-three ERA in four of the last five seasons, it’s safe to expect his 3.35 number to regress to the mean. He’s been unlucky in terms of homers this year, seeing 16.7% of all flyballs leave the yard. That number hasn’t been higher than 10.9% since 2017 and won’t continue at that clip.

Wheeler has minimal history against the current Cleveland lineup. Five players have combined for just 17 at-bats against the 34-year-old righty, generating five hits (.294 average) but none for extra bases. Carlos Santana has by far the best numbers against Wheeler, going 3-for-7 with another seven walks and just two Ks.

Wheeler has lasted at least 5.0 innings in each of his last five starts. He’s allowed exactly two earned runs in four straight while piling up 38 strikeouts and just three walks in 26.2 innings over that span. He’s worked himself back into the top-five favorites in the NL Cy Young odds.

Standing in stark contrast to Wheeler’s consistency is the erratic Luis L Ortiz, who allowed six runs on fi hits and three walks to the Nationals last time out, directly after pitching 6.1 shutout innings (three hits, two walks) against the Twins.

The former Pirate has shockingly good numbers against the current Phillies lineup, giving up just a .190 average and .570 OPS in 42 total at-bats. The only Philadelphia player to take him deep is Kyle Schwarber, who’s 1-for-5 with a homer. Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner are both 2-for-6 off Ortiz with one double.

Concerningly for Ortiz, though, he’s managed only six Ks in those 42 at-bats against the Phillies lineup, while issuing four walks. If you’re looking for a reason to back the 26-year-old righty, he’s been much better at home (2.26 ERA) at the pitcher-friendly Progressive Field than on the road (7.29 ERA).

Phillies vs Guardians Picks & Prediction

• Wheeler over 6.5 Ks (-138) at FanDuel
• First 5 Innings under 3.5 runs (+110) at DraftKings

The Guardians as a team don’t strikeout a ton; their 21.2% K-rate is 11th-best in the MLB. But that’s up from 20.2% last season, when they were in the top five. Wheeler has recorded at least seven Ks in four straight starts and in seven of eight this season. His last start at Progressive Field was all the way back in July 2023, but it’s worth noting that he pitchen seven innings of five-hit, one-run ball with eight strikeouts on that night.

I’m also going to back the under in the first 5 innings. Ortiz’s inconsistency is frightening. His bad starts have been bad. But they have almost exclusively come on the road, and he already has ample encouraging history against the current Phillies hitters.