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MLB Picks & Best Bets (Sep. 20): Braves Surprise Underdogs vs. Mets

Freddie Freeman celebrating
Freddie Freeman and the Atlanta Braves have won six of eight this year against the New York Mets, yet they find themselves as slight underdogs on Sunday. Photo via @dexter_wood34 (Twitter).
  • The Atlanta Braves are surprise underdogs against the New York Mets in a messy pitching matchup on Sunday, Sept. 19
  • Brad Keller looks to build off his shutout last time out as his Royals face the Brewers
  • Check out the early odds and picks for MLB’s Sunday slate (Sep. 20th)

Rarely do you see a clear playoff team like the Atlanta Braves listed as underdogs against a non-playoff team like the New York Mets, unless the pitching matchup is heavily titled towards the also-ran. Yet that’s what bettors are looking at on Sunday, September 20th, in one of the most intriguing matchups among on the board.

NB: The table below displays all Sep. 20th games open for betting as of 10:00 pm ET, Sep. 19th. It may not contain all games scheduled for Sep. 20th.

MLB Odds: Sep. 20th

Team (Starter) Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
New York Yankees (D. Garcia) -172 -1.5 (-120) Over 10.0 (-105) 1:07 pm
Boston Red Sox (T. Houck) +158 +1.5 (+100) Under 10.0 (-115)
Team (Starter) Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Chicago White Sox (D. Cease) -109 -1.5 (+138) Over 9.0 (-125) 1:10 pm
Cincinnati Reds (M. Lorenzen) -101 +1.5 (-158) Under 9.0 (+105)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Cleveland Indians (C. Carrasco) -205 -1.5 (-125) Over 8.0 (-105) 1:10 pm
Detroit Tigers (M. Boyd) +188 +1.5 (+105) Under 8.0 (-115)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
New York Mets (R. Porcello) -113 -1.5 (+165) Over 9.5 (-120) 1:10 pm
Atlanta Braves (K. Wright) +103 +1.5 (-190) Under 9.5 (+100)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Kansas City Royals (B. Keller) +130 +1.5 (-165) Over 8.5 (+100) 2:10 pm
Milwaukee Brewers (J. Lindblom) -141 -1.5 (+145) Under 8.5 (-120)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Arizona Diamondbacks (M. Bumgarner) +179 +1.5 (-105) Over 9.5 (-110) 2:10 pm
Houston Astros (J. Urquidy) -195 -1.5 (-115) Under 9.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Los Angeles Dodgers (T. Gonzolin) -185 -1.5 (-130) Over 12.5 (-110) 3:10 pm
Colorado Rockies (A. Senzatela) +170 +1.5 (+110) Under 12.5 (-110)
Team (Starter) Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
St. Louis Cardinals (J. Flaherty) -165 -1.5 (-107) Over 8.0 (-105) 4:05 pm
Pittsburgh Pirates (J. Musgrove) +152 +1.5 (-113) Under 8.0 (-115)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Texas Rangers (K. Cody) +122 +1.5 (-163) Over 9.5 (-105) 4:10 pm
LA Angels (J. Teheran) -132 -1.5 (+143) Under 9.5 (-115)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
San Diego Padres (D. Lamet) -225 -1.5 (-137) Over 8.5 (+100) 4:10 pm
Seattle Mariners (J. Dunn) +204 +1.5 (+117) Under 8.5 (-120)
Team Moneyline Runline Over/Under Run Total Game Time (Eastern)
Minnesota Twins (J. Barrios) +130 TBD (TBD) Over TBD (TBD) 7:08 pm
Chicago Cubs (Y. Darvish) -141 TBD (TBD) Under TBD (TBD)

Odds as of Sept. 19th.

Pick 1: Braves Moneyline (+103) vs Mets

Reasoning: Trust the season series.

The Atlanta Braves have won six of eight games against the New York Mets this season — including a 15-2 win on Friday — but find themselves receiving excellent moneyline value on Sunday.

Admittedly, the pitching matchup is greasy: Atlanta’s Kyle Wright (1-4, 7.20 ERA) and New York’s Rick Porcello (1-5, 6.06 ERA). But as bad as Wright has been, he threw 3.1 scoreless innings in his lone start against the Mets this year. As for Porcello, he’s a long way from his Cy Young-winning 2016 season, which was the only time in the last six years he posted an ERA under 4.28.

Pick 2: Royals Moneyline (+130) vs Brewers

Reasoning: Royals’ Keller rolling after complete game.

Brad Keller and his Royals are underdogs against an admittedly stronger Brewers team, but the pitching matchup is noticeably in Kansas City’s favor.

Keller (4-2, 2.06 ERA) faces the Brewers’ Josh Lindblom (1-3, 5.26 ERA) in the final game of this three-game series. With very little head-to-head history to go off of, just know that Keller tossed a five-hit shutout his last time out.

Neither Keller nor Lindblom has started against their respective opponents, so there’s an added unknown factor there. A piping hot Keller has a good chance to get the better of Milwaukee’s light-hitting lineup.

A two-team parlay on the Braves and Royals at +103 and +130, respectively, would pay out at +367.

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