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MLB Picks Today – Odds, Betting Lines, Probable Pitchers for Sunday

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Jun 20, 2021 · 9:07 AM PDT

St Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals' Nolan Arenado hits a single during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, May 13, 2021, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
  • See the best bets in baseball on June 19th when the Cardinals face the Braves in the second leg of a double-header
  • Moneyline predictions for the game plus betting trends
  • Bettors must remember that double-headers in baseball this season are only seven innings

Sunday’s slate of MLB action will wrap up with the St. Louis Cardinals (35-35, 16-20 away) facing the Atlanta Braves (32-35, 19-19 home) at 7:00 pm ET at Truist Park in a seven-inning affair that will complete a double-header for the teams today.

The MLB odds show the Braves as slight -125 home favorites, with the Cardinals’ moneyline coming back at +108. The over/under is at 7.5, indicating oddsmakers don’t have a ton of faith in today’s starting pitchers.

Cardinals vs Braves Odds

Team Moneyline Runline First 5 Total at DraftKings
Cardinals +108 -1.5 (+170) –>Over 5.5 (+102)<—
 Braves -125 +1.5 (-210) Under 5.5  (-125)

Odds as of June 19th.

The pitching matchup isn’t going to give either manager a lot of confidence. Kwang-Hyung Kim goes for the visitors, while Atlanta counters with Drew Smyly.

Here is how the probable starters matchup on paper this season.

Probable Pitchers

Team Pitcher ERA WHIP
Cardinals Kwang-Hyung Kim 3.72 1.35
Braves Drew Smyly 5.63 1.41

This is the final game of a four-game series for the teams. The Braves dominated the first two on Thursday (4-0) and Friday (9-1). In today’s matinee, Atlanta is a small favorite again (-121).

Best Bets for Cardinals vs Braves

Both of these teams have underwhelmed in the first-third of the season. Both were favorites to win their division on Opening Day. The Cardinals are currently fourth in the NL Central, 3.5 games behind division-leading Milwaukee.

Atlanta is third in the NL East, but 5.5 games back of the division-leading Mets.

Thirty-two-year-old Korean import Kwang-Hyun Kim will make his 11th start of the season (19th appearance of his career). His last outing was one of his best of the season, pitching six innings of three-hit, one-run ball, but that came at home against the light-hitting Marlins.

In his three previous starts, he gave up 10 earned runs in 13.2 innings of work. And his home/road splits are concerning: he has a 2.66 ERA at Busch Stadium and a 4.84 ERA everywhere else.

This will be the first time he has faced Atlanta in his short career (19 appearances).

Smyly’s splits are equally concerning for today’s purposes. He has posted a 4.66 ERA on the road and massive 7.54 ERA at home, albeit in just 19.1 innings of work.

His more-recent starts have been somewhat encouraging. After getting shelled for seven runs in 5.1 innings in Boston on May 26, he has allowed eight earned runs in 13.2 innings over his next three starts.

The likely outcome here is a fairly high-scoring game. The Atlanta offense was one of the best in the league last season and still has the same big bats waiting to truly break out.

Getting plus-money (+102) on a five-inning total of 5.5 is my play for the day.

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