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MLB Picks Today – Odds and Probable Pitchers for Giants vs Dodgers

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Jun 29, 2021 · 7:53 AM PDT

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Walker Buehler delivers a pitch
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Walker Buehler delivers a pitch during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics in Los Angeles, Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020. (Photo by Kyusung Gong/Icon Sportswire)
  • See the best bets in baseball on Tuesday, June 29th
  • Aces duel in Los Angeles when the Giants’ Kevin Gausman faces the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler
  • See the odds, trends, and predictions

The San Francisco Giants (50-28, 24-17 away) visit the Los Angeles Dodgers (48-31, 27-13 home) in the first of a three-game set tonight at Dodger Stadium (10:10 pm ET).

The pitching matchup is strength-on-strength with Kevin Gausman (8-1, 1.49 ERA) slated to face Walker Buehler (7-1, 2.51 ERA).

The odds favor the Dodgers at home with their young ace on the mound, but there is clearly a lot of respect for Gausman and the Giants in the betting world, with San Francisco a modest +125 underdog.

Giants vs Dodgers Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total at DraftKings
San Francisco Giants +125 +1.5 (-175) Over 7.5 (+102)
Los Angeles Dodgers -148 -1.5 (+145) Under 7.5 (-124)

Odds as of June 29th.

MLB Odds Give Giants a Lot of Respect

Frequent MLB bettors know that the odds above are somewhat unusual for a Dodger home game with Buehler on the mound. It’s not uncommon to see LA in the -200 range in such circumstances.

Taking out the juice, the moneyline gives the Giants a 42.6% implied probability of winning straight-up. The Dodgers are 48-22 at home over the past two seasons, a .686 win percentage.

Gausman vs Buehler

Pitcher ERA WHIP xFIP
Kevin Gausman 1.49 0.77 3.05
Walker Buehler 2.51 0.92 3.73

While both pitchers have been excellent this year, the peripherals suggest they are over-performing to an extent and are likely to regress. Batters who have faced Gausman this season have just a .209 average on balls in play (BABIP). Buehler is at .227. Both are well below the league average, which tends to hover around .300. Inducing soft contact is a skill, but years of data also suggest that BABIP evens out over time.

The history of this LA lineup against Gausman is fairly encouraging. In total, they are slashing .209/.259/.315 in 138 at-bats, but Dave Roberts is capable of putting together an order that’s hit Gausman hard.

Mookie Betts is 15-for-43 (.349 BA) lifetime with three home runs and four walks. Justin Turner is 4-for-11  (.364) with a home run and two doubles. Chris Taylor is 3-for-7 (.429) with a double.

San Francisco’s history against Buehler is less rosy. The active roster is slashing .132/.254/.172 in 81 at-bats. No one who has faced Buehler more than three times is batting more than .300. Brandon Crawford, Alex Dickerson, and Mike Yastrzemski have accounted for 43 of those 81 at-bats and are a collected 8-for-43 with no home runs, two doubles, and three walks.

Buehler has already faced the Giants twice this year, allowing one run over seven innings on May 22, and following that up with one run in six innings in his very next start on May 28. All told, he’s held the Giants to two runs, nine hits, four walks,  and one homer over 13.0 innings of work.

Gausman has not faced the Dodgers since 2020. In his three games against LAD that season, San Fran was 0-3 and Gausman gave up five runs, 12 hits, and three walks over 14.1 innings.

That said, the 2021 version of Kevin Gausman has clearly made adjustments. If not for Jacob deGrom, he would be among the Cy Young favorites, if not the frontrunner. The Dodgers have been held to three runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. This one should be low-scoring early.

Pick: First Three Innings – Under 2.5 (-165)

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