- The Milwaukee Brewers are -275 home favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates in a National League afternoon game slated for Wednesday, August 4
- The NL Central-leading Brewers are 8-3 over their past 11 games
- Only two NL clubs have posted fewer road victories than the 18 earned by Pittsburgh
Things generally don’t go well anyplace for the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-66, 18-36 away). However, it goes especially south when it’s the Milwaukee Brewers (64-44, 30-25) who are providing the opposition.
The Brew Crew have won four of the last five and 10 of 12 overall from Pittsburgh.
At home, the Brewers have won 11 of 15 over the Pirates. Overall, against all opposition, Milwaukee has taken seven of nine games. However, the Brewers are just 25-21 this season as a home favorite.
Pirates vs Brewers Odds
|Pittsburgh Pirates||+235||+1.5 (+115)||O 8.5 (-105)|
|Milwaukee Brewers||-300||-1.5 (-135)||U 8.5 (-115)|
Odds as of August 4th at DraftKings.
First pitch is slated for 2:10 pm ET at American Family Field.
Brault vs Peralta
One guy is his team’s best pitcher this season. The other was his team’s best pitcher last season.
Milwaukee right-hander Freddy Peralta has already established a career high for wins. The NL all-star leads the league in ERA (2.19), WHIP (0.87) and hits per nine innings (3.9).
Peralta is also among the top 1% of the league in xBA (.157), the top 3% in WOBA (.225) and the top 4% in xERA (2.48), xWOBA (.244), xSLG (.267) and xWOBACON (.300). As well, Peralta rates among the top 6% in strikeout percentage (34.5).
In 13 games against Pittsburgh, including four starts, Peralta is 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA. He’s struck out 43 over 36.1 innings pitched. He’s 1-1 in three starts this season against the Pirates. Peralta beat Pittsburgh 12-0 in his last start on July 29.
Last season, left-hander Steven Brault was named the Steve Blass Award winner. That’s given to the team’s best pitcher by the Pittsburgh chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America.
Brault was 1-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.195 WHIP. He threw Pittsburgh’s only complete game of the season, a 5-1 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals.
Just to pump the brakes a little on Steven Brault – yes, statically he had a solid season last year in his 42.2 IP. Let’s also remember how he was utilized. There was only 22 PA where he faced the third time of the lineup. Put this in perspective:
— 𝐍𝐒𝟗 (@NorthShoreNine) July 29, 2021
He’s missed the entire 2021 season due to a strain of his left latissimus dorsi muscle in his back. In four rehab starts over 12.2 innings for AAA Indianapolis and class-A Bradenton, Brault allowed seven hits, two runs and three walks. He posted a 0.789 WHIP and 1.42 ERA.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
|Brewers Batters||Batting Average vs Brault||Pirates Batters||Batting Average vs Peralta|
|Willy Adames||.000||Rodolfo Castro||.000|
|Jackie Bradley Jr||.000||Wilmer Difo||.143|
|Lorenzo Cain||.125||Phillip Evans||.000|
|Eduardo Escobar||1.000||Ben Gamel||.667|
|Avisail Garcia||.000||Ke’Bryan Hayes||.000|
|Omar Narvaez||.000||Kevin Newman||.500|
|Jace Peterson||.000||John Nogowski||1.000|
|Manny Pina||.077||Hoy Park||.000|
|Tyrone Taylor||.000||Michael Perez||.000|
|Rowdy Tellez||.000||Gregory Polanco||.000|
|Luis Urias||.500||Bryan Reynolds||.364|
|Kolten Wong||.300||Jacob Stallings||.400|
Brewers second baseman Kolten Wong is batting .300 (3-for-10) against Brault. Third baseman Luis Urias (1-for-2, .500) and catcher Eduardo Escobar (1-for-1, 1.000) also show success when facing Brault in extremely small sample sizes.
• RUN • Sac fly for Kolten Wong, giving him his 1,658,330th career RBI against the Pirates. It's 1-0 in the third.
— Dejan Kovacevic (@Dejan_Kovacevic) August 3, 2021
Pirates centerfielder Brian Reynolds is 4-for-11 (.364) when stepping in to face Peralta. Kevin Newman is 4-for-8 with a home run and six RBI against the Milwaukee right-hander.
Catcher Jacob Stallings is 2-for-5 (.400), left fielder Ben Gamel is 2-for-3 (.667) and first baseman John Nogowski is 1-for-1 (1.000).
Pirates vs Brewers Picks
Pittsburgh rallied from a 4-0 deficit for an 8-5 extra-inning win over Milwaukee on Tuesday night. That ended a four-game losing streak against the Brewers. Pittsburgh had accumulated a total of just 15 runs over the previous nine games against Milwaukee.
The Pirates haven’t won consecutive games from the Brewers since a three-game run from August 21-23, 2020. Pittsburgh hasn’t won back-to-back games in Milwaukee since September 15-16, 2018. That’s a stretch of 21 games without winning two in a row.
I did not have Brewers-Pirates as the potential Game of the Night, but here we are. pic.twitter.com/alC99sXBWa
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) August 4, 2021
Pittsburgh is last in the NL in runs per game (3.64), home runs (85), slugging percentage (.365) and OPS (.672). Brault figures to be on a tight pitch count in his first start of the season. That could tax a bullpen in the third game of a series.
The Pirates are 15-39 in their last 54 games when facing NL Central opposition. As well, Pittsburgh is .269 (24-65) though the club’s last 89 road games.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-300)