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Pirates vs Brewers Odds, Betting Lines, and Probable Pitchers

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Aug 3, 2021 · 10:51 PM PDT

Avisail Garcia and Omar Narvaez high-five
Milwaukee Brewers' Avisail Garcia (24) is congratulated by teammate Omar Narvaez (10) after hitting a two-run home run during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday, April 10, 2021, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers are -275 home favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates in a National League afternoon game slated for Wednesday, August 4
  • The NL Central-leading Brewers are 8-3 over their past 11 games
  • Only two NL clubs have posted fewer road victories than the 18 earned by Pittsburgh

Things generally don’t go well anyplace for the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-66, 18-36 away). However, it goes especially south when it’s the Milwaukee Brewers (64-44, 30-25) who are providing the opposition.

The Brew Crew have won four of the last five and 10 of 12 overall from Pittsburgh.

At home, the Brewers have won 11 of 15 over the Pirates. Overall, against all opposition, Milwaukee has taken seven of nine games. However, the Brewers are just 25-21 this season as a home favorite.

Pirates vs Brewers Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Pittsburgh Pirates +235 +1.5 (+115) O 8.5 (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers -300 -1.5 (-135) U 8.5 (-115)

Odds as of August 4th at DraftKings.

First pitch is slated for 2:10 pm ET at American Family Field.

Brault vs Peralta

Steven Breault
VS
Freddy Peralta

0-0 Record 8-3
0.00 ERA 2.17
0.00 xERA 2.48
0.00 WHIP 0.87
0.00 SO/W Ratio 3.09

One guy is his team’s best pitcher this season. The other was his team’s best pitcher last season.

Milwaukee right-hander Freddy Peralta has already established a career high for wins. The NL all-star leads the league in ERA (2.19), WHIP (0.87) and hits per nine innings (3.9).

Peralta is also among the top 1% of the league in xBA (.157), the top 3% in WOBA (.225) and the top 4% in xERA (2.48), xWOBA (.244), xSLG (.267) and xWOBACON (.300). As well, Peralta rates among the top 6% in strikeout percentage (34.5).

In 13 games against Pittsburgh, including four starts, Peralta is 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA. He’s struck out 43 over 36.1 innings pitched. He’s 1-1 in three starts this season against the Pirates. Peralta beat Pittsburgh 12-0 in his last start on July 29.

Last season, left-hander Steven Brault was named the Steve Blass Award winner. That’s given to the team’s best pitcher by the Pittsburgh chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America.

Brault was 1-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.195 WHIP. He threw Pittsburgh’s only complete game of the season, a 5-1 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals.

He’s missed the entire 2021 season due to a strain of his left latissimus dorsi muscle in his back. In four rehab starts over 12.2 innings for AAA Indianapolis and class-A Bradenton, Brault allowed seven hits, two runs and three walks. He posted a 0.789 WHIP and 1.42 ERA.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Brewers Batters Batting Average vs Brault Pirates Batters Batting Average vs Peralta
Willy Adames .000 Rodolfo Castro .000
Jackie Bradley Jr .000 Wilmer Difo .143
Lorenzo Cain .125 Phillip Evans .000
Eduardo Escobar 1.000 Ben Gamel .667
Avisail Garcia .000 Ke’Bryan Hayes .000
Omar Narvaez .000 Kevin Newman .500
Jace Peterson .000 John Nogowski 1.000
Manny Pina .077 Hoy Park .000
Tyrone Taylor .000 Michael Perez .000
Rowdy Tellez .000 Gregory Polanco .000
Luis Urias .500 Bryan Reynolds .364
Kolten Wong .300 Jacob Stallings .400

Brewers second baseman Kolten Wong is batting .300 (3-for-10) against Brault. Third baseman Luis Urias (1-for-2, .500) and catcher Eduardo Escobar (1-for-1, 1.000) also show success when facing Brault in extremely small sample sizes.

Pirates centerfielder Brian Reynolds is 4-for-11 (.364) when stepping in to face Peralta. Kevin Newman is 4-for-8 with a home run and six RBI against the Milwaukee right-hander.

Catcher Jacob Stallings is 2-for-5 (.400), left fielder Ben Gamel is 2-for-3 (.667) and first baseman John Nogowski is 1-for-1 (1.000).

Pirates vs Brewers Picks

Pittsburgh rallied from a 4-0 deficit for an 8-5 extra-inning win over Milwaukee on Tuesday night. That ended a four-game losing streak against the Brewers. Pittsburgh had accumulated a total of just 15 runs over the previous nine games against Milwaukee.

The Pirates haven’t won consecutive games from the Brewers since a three-game run from August 21-23, 2020. Pittsburgh hasn’t won back-to-back games in Milwaukee since September 15-16, 2018. That’s a stretch of 21 games without winning two in a row.

Pittsburgh is last in the NL in runs per game (3.64),  home runs (85), slugging percentage (.365) and OPS (.672). Brault figures to be on a tight pitch count in his first start of the season. That could tax a bullpen in the third game of  a series.

The Pirates are 15-39 in their last 54 games when facing NL Central opposition. As well, Pittsburgh is .269 (24-65) though the club’s last 89 road games.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-300)

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