Pirates vs Cubs Expert Picks & Betting Splits

• The Cubs are -144 moneyline favorites over the Pirates this afternoon
• This game profiles as a pitchers duel between Braxton Ashcraft and Edward Cabrera
• My Pirates vs Cubs expert picks can be found below, along with the latest odds and betting splits

The Pirates and Cubs are continue their series at Wrigley Field this afternoon, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM ET on MLB.TV. Entering Game 2 of this National League series, the Pirates sit at 7-5 after shutting out the Cubs 2-0 in the series opener. The Pirates leaned on a clutch home run from Bryan Reynolds to secure that victory.

Meanwhile, the Cubs fell to an even 6-6, scattering six base hits but failing to plate a single run. Despite the power outage, Chicago is listed as the favorites for this contest in the MLB odds, in a game that projects to be a low scoring affair.

Below, you’ll find my Pirates vs Cubs expert picks, along with the latest odds and betting splits.

Pirates vs Cubs Expert Picks

• Under 6.5 Runs (+102 at DraftKings)
• Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-144 at FanDuel)
• Edward Cabrera Over 2.5 Walks (+120 at Bet365)

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5, Get $250 If Your Bet Wins!

Must be 21+. T&C Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Offer not available in AR.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $250

IF YOUR BET WINS!

BET NOW

I’ve got a trio of picks for this game, led by my favorite which is under 6.5 runs. The Cubs, a top-10 World Series odds contender, send Edward Cabrera to the mound, who boasts a flawless 0.00 ERA and an elite 0.69 WHIP over his first 35 innings. He is limiting opposing hitters to an absurd .059 batting average.

The Pirates counter with Braxton Ashcraft. He is spinning a 2.25 ERA across 36 frames while striking out 8.25 batters per nine innings. Neither offense has been tearing the cover off the ball, providing further justification for a low-scoring affair. The Cubs are collectively hitting just .220 as a team, while the Pirates are marginally better at .237.

Braxton Ashcraft vs Edward Cabrera Stats

While Ashcraft is formidable, Cabrera’s sheer dominance gives the home side a distinct edge. The Cubs also flash reliable upside through contact hitters like Nico Hoerner, who is batting .326 with nine RBIs. I look for the Cubs to generate just enough early offense to support their starter. Backing this up, matchups for the Cubs consistently trend away from high-scoring affairs, with the under cashing in 69.2% of their games this season.

Another reason to like the under is the Pirates boom-or-bust approach on the road. Their .298 OBP indicates they struggle to string extended rallies together. Instead, they rely heavily on the long ball, leaving the yard 1.57 times per game as the visiting team.

As for the MLB props, bettors should target over 2.5 on Cabrera’s walks allowed. Despite his immaculate 0.00 ERA, he shows a minor vulnerability with his command, walking 4.63 batters per nine innings. The Pirates are incredibly patient at the plate, boasting a .327 team on-base percentage and drawing 53 walks.

Pirates vs Cubs Odds

If you’re following my lead for this game, you’ll need access to multiple betting sites. FanDuel has the shortest odds on a Cubs win at -144, while DraftKings has the best price on under 6.5 runs at +102.

In terms of Cabrera’s player prop, Bet365 is offering +120 odds on over 2.5 walks, which is by far the best in market.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Pirates vs Cubs Betting Splits

While tracking MLB public betting ticket percentages gives me a clear view of popular sentiment, evaluating the total money handle remains my preferred metric for identifying smart wagers. In the moneyline market, the betting public is heavily backing the home side. The Cubs currently command 71.6% of the betting tickets and 61.9% of the overall money wagered.

My prediction of the Cubs moneyline aligns with both the general public and the overall money. However, tracking data shows a recent 28.2% surge in monetary stake backing the underdog Pirates. This late influx indicates that some larger wagers are taking a chance on the plus-money value the Pirates offer.

The most glaring discrepancy between my analytical approach and the betting public comes in the totals market. A massive 78.4% of tickets and 77.5% of the total handle firmly back the over. Because both metrics are aligned heavily, there is no sharp versus public split. I am actively fading this one-sided public market by trusting the elite starting pitching.