Pirates vs Royals Odds, Predictions, Picks & Player Props (July 7)

• The Kansas City Royals host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday, July 7
• The Pirates are an abysmal 12-32 on the road this season, third-worst in the majors
• See the Royals vs Pirates odds, picks, predictions, and player props to target on Monday night

The Kansas City Royals (43-48, 20-24 home, 34-55-2 O/U) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (38-53, 12-32 away, 35-52-4 O/U) at Kauffman Stadium on Monday night with first pitch scheduled for 7:40 pm ET. The pitching matchup features Noah Cameron for the home team against Andrew Heaney for the visitors.

Promising rookie Noah Cameron toes the rubber for the Royals while veteran Andrew Heaney goes for the Bucs. Below, I will break down the odds, key pitcher-vs-batter matchups, and provide my best picks for the game.

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Monday’s MLB odds reflect Pittsburgh’s struggles on the road and Heaney’s thoroughly pedestrian performance on the mound this season. The Royals are listed as -148 home chalk with the Pirates coming back as +126 road underdogs. The vig-free implied probability gives the Royals a 57.5% chance to win, leaving just 42.5% for the Pirates.

The run total is sitting at 9.0 with the under favored at -120 in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium. Odds as of July 7, 2025 from FanDuel. See the latest news and updates on FanDuel Missouri before launch later this year.

Six-three, 25-year-old lefty Cameron (2-4) has been a bright spot for the Kansas City rotation in his rookie season, delivering quality starts that have often been undermined by a lack of run support. He’ll face a Pirates lineup that has struggled to generate offense on the road. On the other side, veteran lefty Heaney (4-7, 4.16 ERA) will be aiming to reverse his significant struggles away from home.

Royals vs Pirates Odds Movement

The betting market has seen notable movement on the total, which opened at 8.5 runs and has since been pushed up to 9.0, though with juice now on the under. The moneyline has seen a slight shift toward the visitors, moving from Kansas City -156 at open to -148, suggesting some respect for the Pirates as an underdog.

This movement is likely influenced by a few factors. While Cameron has been excellent, both teams are dealing with significant injuries in their bullpens (more details on this in the next section), which could lead to late-game scoring. Also the MLB public betting splits show heavy action on the Royals, but sharp money indicators suggest a slight lean toward the Pirates on the moneyline. For bettors, the move to 9.0 on the total creates a more attractive opportunity to bet the Under, especially considering Cameron’s form, Heaney’s potential to be chased early, and Kauffman Stadium’s pitcher-friendly dimensions.

Royals Injury Report

Pirates Injury Report

Given that Cameron is a rookie and this is an infrequent interleague matchup, there is very little head-to-head history between the starters and the opposing lineups. But what history does exist favors the Royals getting to Heaney.

Starting Pitcher vs Batter History

Kansas City left fielder Mark Canha (.220 BA, .550 OPS) has a .318 average and 1.172 OPS in 22 career at-bats against Heaney, including two home runs. Bobby Witt Jr is 2-for-4 with a walk. Veteran catcher Sal Perez has struggled against the Pittsburgh lefty, going just 1-for-10 with a no extra-base hit and three Ks.

Heaney brings a 4.16 ERA into Monday’s game, but that number balloons to an alarming 5.79 on the road. The lefty has been susceptible to the long ball and has struggled with command away from PNC Park. This could be problematic against a contact-oriented Royals lineup that excels at putting the ball in play. Left-handed slugger Vinnie Pasquantino and the speedy Bobby Witt Jr present difficult matchups for Heaney, who has been less effective against lineups that don’t rely solely on power.

Cameron, on the other hand, has been superb this season with a 2.56 ERA, relying on a plus-changeup and solid fastball command to induce weak contact. He faces a Pirates offense that ranks in the bottom third of the league in batting average (.231) and OPS (.644). Pittsburgh’s key hitters, including switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds and lefty Oneil Cruz, may struggle against Cameron’s arsenal, particularly his off-speed pitches that dive away from left-handed bats.

Cameron currently sits 12th in the AL Rookie of the Year odds at +7000, on average.

Royals vs Pirates Batter Props

Royals vs Pirates Pitcher Props

MLB as of July 7, 2025 at FanDuel. Read up on all Missouri sports betting apps scheduled to launch in December 2025.

For player props, Noah Cameron’s under 2.5 earned runs at +115 offers excellent value. He has maintained a 2.56 ERA on the season and faces a Pirates offense that was shut out in its last game and generally struggles to score on the road. On the other side, Andrew Heaney’s over 2.5 earned runs (-116) should also be a strong consideration. His road ERA is a sky-high 5.79, and he’s facing a Royals team that, while not a powerhouse, is adept at manufacturing runs.

KC Royals vs PIT Pirates Picks & Predictions

My handicap of this game is premised on two main factors: the disparity on the mound and Pittsburgh’s abhorrent play on the road. Noah Cameron has been a revelation for the Royals. His 2.56 ERA is elite, and he gets to pitch in the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium against a Pirates lineup that is offensively challenged. Conversely, Andrew Heaney has been a liability on the road, posting a 5.79 ERA that signals deep-rooted issues away from Pittsburgh. It’s true that Cameron isn’t overpowering (92.3 mph average four-seam fastball velo) and, according to his 3.32 xERA, is due for some regression. But I still have a lot more faith in him holding the Pirates in check than I do in Heaney.

While both bullpens are depleted by injuries, an advantage in starting pitching is all the more important.

Several betting trends also point towards a low-scoring game. The under has hit in 30 of the Royals’ 44 home games this season (68%) and in 29 of the Pirates’ 44 road games (66%). With the Pirates’ bats cold and Cameron dealing, Kansas City is well-positioned to control this game from the start. I’m going to target the KC moneyline, under 9.0 runs, and Cameron under 1.5 earned runs at plus-money.

Picks:

• Kansas City Royals moneyline (-148)
• Under 9.0 Runs (-120)
• Noah Cameron under 2.5 Earned Runs (+115)