Upcoming Match-ups

Red Sox vs Dodgers World Series Game 4 Odds, Pick and Predictions

Dodgers RF Yasiel Puig stretching pre-game.
Yasiel Puig and the Dodgers can even the 2018 World Series at two games apiece in Game 4 on Saturday, Oct 28. Photo by Arturo Pardavila III (Flickr)
  • The Dodgers can even the 2018 World Series at 2-2 in Game 4 on Saturday
  • Drew Pomeranz, who hasn’t pitched an inning in the postseason, is listed as the Red Sox starter
  • Los Angeles will give the ball to Boston native Rich Hill

Given that no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in World Series history, safe to say that the Dodgers saved their season with a dramatic 3-2, 18-inning win over Boston in Game 3 on Friday, the longest game in MLB playoff history.

Los Angeles can turn the series into a best-of-three by winning Game 4 on Saturday (Oct. 27,  8:09 PM ET).

Below, find the moneyline, runline, over/under, key statistics, weather forecast, and score prediction for Game 4, which sees Rich Hill taking the mound for the Dodgers against Eduardo Rodriguez for the Red Sox.

Red Sox vs Dodgers Game 4 Opening Odds

 RUNLINE MONEYLINE TOTAL
RED SOX +1.5 (-150) RED SOX +137 OVER 8.5 (EVEN)
DODGERS -1.5 (+130) DODGERS -157 UNDER 8.5 (-120)

When it comes to the series as a whole, history isn’t on LA’s side. Teams that are up 2-1 are 15-5 in the World Series since 1991. In that same time frame, teams which have taken a 2-0 series lead are 12-1. The last team to blow a 2-0 lead was the Atlanta Braves in 1996.

But when it comes to Game 4 in isolation, the Dodgers are big favorites to even the series at two, opening around -160.

Red Sox vs Dodgers Statistical Comparison*

red sox
VS
dodgers

108-54 RECORD 92-71
+229 (2nd) RUN DIFFERENTIAL +194 (3rd)
.268 (1st) TEAM BATTING AVERAGE   .250 (14th)
.261 TEAM BATTING AVERAGE (PLAYOFFS) .212
  208 (9th) TEAM HOME RUNS 235 (2nd)
10 TEAM HOME RUNS (PLAYOFFS) 12
   .339 (1st) TEAM OBP .333 (5th)
.345 TEAM OBP (PLAYOFFS) .311
.453 (1st) TEAM SLUGGING   .442 (3rd)
.404 TEAM SLUGGING (PLAYOFFS) .345
 .792 (1st) TEAM OPS .774 (5th)
.749 TEAM OPS (PLAYOFFS) .657
3.74 (9th)  BULLPEN ERA 3.72 (8th)
3.18  BULLPEN ERA (PLAYOFFS) 1.65

*All stats from reg. season unless otherwise indicated. Playoff stats from prior to Game 3.

Both batting orders have regressed some in the postseason, but that trend is much more pronounced on the Dodger side. LA’s OPS has fallen over a hundred percentage points (from .774 to .657). Boston’s is down .043 points.

When it comes to the key bats, only Yasiel Puig (.306/.405/.472, 1 HR, 5 RBI, .877 OPS) and Chris Taylor (.300/.417/.500, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .917 OPS) have performed significantly better in the playoffs than the regular season for LA.

Manny Machado is driving in runs (12 RBI, 3 HR) but isn’t getting on base nearly enough and is striking out way too much (.255/.304/.471, 3 BB, 13 K).

Boston has seen their own superstar regress, as Mookie Betts’ numbers are down across the board in the playoffs (.255/.340/.340, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .680 OPS). But crucially, they are still getting MVP-level play from Martinez (.333/.429/.538, 2 HR, 13 RBI, .967 OPS) plus a clutch October performance from Rafael Devers (.308/.379/.423, 1 HR, 8 RBI, .802 OPS) and above-average production from several role players, like Christian Vazquez.

And don’t look now, but Betts is starting to heat up, going 4/8 with a double and a walk in Games 1 and 2.

Probable Starting Pitcher Matchup

Drew Pomeranz
VS
Rich Hill

6.08 (in 74.0 IP) ERA 3.66 (in 132.2 IP)
ERA (PLAYOFFS) 2.61 (in 10.1 IP)
1.77 WHIP 1.12
WHIP (PLAYOFFS) 1.23
4.89 xFIP 3.70
xFIP (PLAYOFFS) 5.28
8.74 K/9 10.18
 K/9 (PLAYOFFS) 8.71

Hill has made two starts in the postseason. He was shaky in the first, throwing 4.1 innings of four-hit, five-walk, two-run ball in a 6-2 win over Atlanta in the NLDS. He was much better in his second start: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 1 ER, 6 K in a 2-1 win over the Brewers in the NLCS.

That win over the Brewers saw Hill and the Dodgers in the same spot they’re in now: at home and trailing 2-1 in the series.

Even though Hill is a 13-year vet who’s spent time in both leagues, he has very little history against this Red Sox lineup. In 40 total at-bats, Boston hitters are slashing .275/.318/.475 against Hill with two homers and a .793 OPS.

JD Martinez (9 AB, .222 BA, 1 HR, 5 K), Steve Pearce (11 AB, .273 BA, 1 RBI), and Eduardo Nunez (9 AB, .444 BA, 1 HR) have faced him the most, and Hill was the starter when Martinez had his four-homer game last year.

On the Boston side, Pomeranz is listed as the Game 4 starter by online sportsbooks. He has yet to appear in the 2018 postseason and is coming off a pretty disastrous regular season. He recorded a 6.08 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 74.0 innings.

Encouragingly for Boston, though, the Dodger lineup has just a .205 batting average and .649 OPS against the 29-year-old in 73 career at bats.

.

Weather Forecast at Opening Pitch

TEMPERATURE 84°
HUMIDITY 22%
WIND SPEED SW 5.5 mph (out to right field)
P.O.P. 0%

The weather for Game 4 couldn’t look much better. It will be warm, but not oppressively hot/humid, with minimal wind and no chance of rain.

Red Sox vs Dodgers Game 4 Score Prediction

RED SOX 5
DODGERS 4

The Dodger rotation was able to do what few have been able to in Game 3: hold down the persistent, tenacious Red Sox lineup.

Doing that two games in a row is not a safe bet. The chances to bet on Boston at +137 have been few and far between this year. That value is just too good to pass up, even with Pomeranz getting the start and the bullpen being depleted from last night’s marathon.

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.