Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks, Predictions, Player Props & Lines (Sep. 24)

• Boston ace Garrett Crochet faces Toronto veteran Max Scherzer in a pivotal AL East clash on Wednesday
• The Blue Jays have been exceptionally strong following a loss and as an underdog this season
• Below, see the Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks, predictions, player props, and betting lines for Sep. 24

The Boston Red Sox (86-71, 40-39 away, 73-77-6 O/U) and Toronto Blue Jays (90-67, 50-26 home, 80-66-10 O/U) continue their series at Rogers Centre in Toronto on Wednesday, Sep. 24, with first pitch scheduled for 7:07 pm ET. The pitching matchup pits Boston ace Garrett Crochet against struggling Toronto veteran Max Scherzer.

The lefty Crochet (17-5, 2.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) has been nothing short of dominant this season and, according to the AL Cy Young odds, he’s poised to finish runner-up to Detroit’s Tarik Skubal. Scherzer (5-4, 5.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP has had a rollercoaster season. He didn’t make it out of the first inning at Kansas City on Friday, getting blasted for seven runs on seven hits in 0.2 innings.

The superficial pitching mismatch has rendered Boston a not-insignificant road favorite in Wednesday’s MLB odds. This article will provide my favorite Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks, dive into key player props, and set out up-to-the-minute Boston/Toronto betting lines.

Jump to: Picks & Prediction | Player Props | Betting Lines

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Picks & Prediction

• Boston Red Sox moneyline (-125) at ESPN Bet
• Under 7.5 runs (-120) at FanDuel
• Scherzer over 1.5 earned runs (-152) at Underdog

The pitching matchup is the undeniable centerpiece of this game, and it tilts heavily in favor of the Red Sox. Crochet has been an elite arm all season, and his historical success against the Blue Jays lineup cannot be ignored (see pitcher-vs-batter history, below).

Max Scherzer, on the other hand, has been inconsistent and hittable, making him a liability against a solid Boston offense that ranks sixth in the MLB in runs scored.

While Toronto boasts some compelling home-field trends, including winning their last seven games as a home underdog and going 10-1 in their last 11 at home following a loss, those trends are overridden by Crochet’s quality. The Red Sox have also been strong as road chalk lately, posting an 11-4 record in their last 15 games as road favorites.

Fading the Blue Jays

The line movement and sharp-money indicators pointing toward Toronto (see BOS vs TOR odds, below) are worth noting, as the professional bettors see value in the home underdog.

However, the on-field mismatch is too vast to overlook. Crochet gives Boston a clear and decisive edge. The total of 7.5 feels low for a game with two top-ten offenses and one struggling starter, but with Crochet on the mound and the under hitting in the last two head-to-head games, I’m betting on a relatively low-scoring affair.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Crochet vs Scherzer

Despite Scherzer approaching 3,000 career innings, the current Boston lineup only has 34 total at-bats against the future Hall-of-Famer, and they haven’t been productive at-bats for the most part.

Boston Red Sox Batters vs Max Scherzer

Veteran Alex Bregman has nearly half of Boston’s at-bats against Scherzer, going an ugly 2-for-16 with five Ks, but going yard once. Trevor Story is the only other Boston hitter who’s faced Scherzer more than three times, going 1-for-8 with three strikeouts. Jarren Duran has one home run off of Scherzer in just three at-bats.

Scherzer’s strikeout numbers remain potent, but his 5.06 ERA indicates he’s been vulnerable to hard contact this season. He will likely lean on his fastball-slider combination to challenge Boston’s hitters, but his command will be critical. Any mistake over the heart of the plate could be costly against a lineup that has shown a knack for timely hitting.

Toronto Blue Jays Batters vs Garrett Crochet

The Blue Jays lineup has largely been stifled by Garrett Crochet, posting a paltry .117 batting average in 60 at-bats. While George Springer has found success with a home run and two walks, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr (1-for-9) has also taken him deep, the rest of the order has struggled to generate any offense.

Crochet’s ability to miss bats and limit baserunners will be the central challenge for a Toronto team looking to regain its offensive rhythm.

TOR Blue Jays vs BOS Rod Sox Player Props

MLB player props as of September 24 at DraftKings.

For pitcher props, Garrett Crochet’s strikeout line of 6.5 is intriguing. Given his career dominance over the current Blue Jays roster and his season-long performance, the over at +101 odds presents solid value. He has the stuff to mow down a Toronto lineup that can be prone to swings and misses.

Conversely, Max Scherzer’s earned-runs line is set at a low 1.5, with heavy juice on the over (as short as -171 at DraftKings). Considering his 5.06 ERA, the market expects him to concede at least two runs, which aligns with his season-long struggles.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Lines

On the moneyline,t he Red Sox are -125 (bet365, ESPN Bet) or shorter, while the longest Toronto moneyline price is currently +115 (BetMGM). Removing the vig, the moneyline odds give the Red Sox about a 55.2% implied win probability, and Blue Jays roughly 44.8%. The total is sitting at 7.5 runs across the board, with all sportsbooks putting more juice on the under.

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Note that the odds in the table, above, will update in realtime as sportsbooks shift their lines. The commentary under the table may not reflect odds movement after publication.

TOR vs BOS Odds Movement

The betting lines for this contest have seen notable movement, particularly on the moneyline and total. The Red Sox opened as stronger favorites (around -144) but have seen their price grow as far as -125. The Blue Jays moved from +118 to +113.

This reverse-line movement, where the line moves against the betting trends (62% of tickets are on Boston in Wednesday’s MLB public betting percentages), suggests that sharper, larger wagers are backing the Blue Jays at home.

The total has also seen significant movement, opening at 8.0 runs and dropping to 7.5 with the under favored. This half-run move is substantial and points to strong market respect for Crochet’s ability to shut down lineups.

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