Red Sox vs Orioles Odds, Picks & Player Props

• The Boston Red Sox send ace Garrett Crochet to the mound against struggling Cade Povich for the the Baltimore Orioles
• The Red Sox have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning the last three games against the O’s
• See the Boston/Baltimore odds, plus my AI-powered Red Sox vs Orioles predictions and player-prop picks

The Boston Red Sox (74-60, 33-35 away, 64-65-4 O/U) face the Baltimore Orioles (60-73, 32-36 home, 54-71-7 O/U) at Camden Yards in the finale of a four-game series on Thursday afternoon. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 pm ET. The Red Sox, who have dominated the first three games of the series, outscoring Baltimore 12-5, will have high hopes for a sweep as they send ace Garrett Crochet (14-5, 2.38 ERA) to the hill, opposite a struggling Cade Povich (2-7, 5.13 ERA) for the O’s.

The matchup on the mound presents a stark contrast; Crochet sits second only to Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young odds, while the Orioles are just 2-9 in Povich’s last 11 starts, including four straight setbacks.

This article will break down the Red Sox vs Orioles odds, set out the main player props, and provide the best picks for the game, based on SBD’s AI-power simulator.

Jump to: Odds | Pitcher-vs-Batter History | Player Props | Picks

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Odds

The Red Sox are heavy road favorites behind Crochet, sitting at -204 on the moneyline. The O’s come back as +165 home underdogs. Removing the juice, the moneyline prices give Boston a 64.0% implied win probability, with Baltimore at just Orioles 36.0%. The run total is at a low 8.0 in hitter-friendly Camden Yards, motivated almost entirely by Crochet’s presence on the bump.

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Odds as of August 28, 2025 from DraftKings. Learn the DraftKings minimum deposit amount with SBD’s DK review.

BOS vs BAL Odds Movement

The betting market has moved decisively toward the Red Sox since lines opened. Boston’s moneyline opened around -172 and has been steamed up to -204, a significant 32-cent shift that indicates heavy backing from both public and sharp bettors. This movement was likely accelerated by Boston’s dramatic 3-2 comeback win last night, which highlighted Baltimore’s bullpen vulnerabilities.

The most telling movement is on the runline, where the Red Sox -1.5 shifted from a +101 underdog price to a -117 favorite, signaling strong market confidence in a multi-run victory.

The total has held steady at 8.0 runs, but the juice has flipped from favoring the over (-115) to favoring the under (-118). This suggests that while the public is betting on a high-scoring game (Thursday’s MLB public betting splits currently show 81% of bets are on the over), sharper money may be anticipating a dominant performance from Garrett Crochet that suppresses the Orioles’ offense, aligning with Baltimore’s powerful under trends.

Crochet vs Povich: Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

The Red Sox lineup has moderate experience against Cade Povich with eight players totalling 57 lifetime at-bats. The Orioles’ lineup has just 14 total at-bats against Crochet. Ryan Mountcastle is the only player who’s faced him more than twice.

Boston Red Sox Batters vs Cade Povich

While they have collectively hit just .200 against him, they’ve managed to put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts in key at-bats. Rob Refsnyder stands out with a 1.636 OPS in nine at-bats, including a double and a home run. Jarren Duran has struggled, posting just one hit in 12 at-bats, but his lone hit was a triple, showcasing his game-changing speed. Overall, Povich has bent without completely breaking, but he remains vulnerable to this lineup.

Baltimore Orioles Career Statistics vs Garrett Crochet

There is virtually no history between the Orioles’ current hitters and Garrett Crochet, which gives the pitcher the advantage. Only Ryan Mountcastle (2-for-6 with a double) has a hit off of Boston’s big lefty. Crochet presents a difficult matchup for Baltimore’s key young left-handed hitters like Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. Without prior experience to draw upon, much of the Orioles’ lineup will be seeing his elite arsenal for the first time, making it a challenging day for run production.

Red Sox vs Orioles Player Props for Aug 28

MLB batter props as of August 28, 2025 from DraftKings.

For player props, the value appears to be on the Red Sox hitters and Garrett Crochet. Alex Bregman to record over 1.5 total bases at +100 is appealing, given his limited but successful history against Povich. For the pitchers, Crochet’s strikeout line of 8.5 is high, but the plus-money odds on the Over are tempting against an Orioles team missing key bats.

A more compelling prop might be on Cade Povich to allow over 2.5 earned runs at +105. Given his 5.13 ERA and the Red Sox’s recent offensive surge, this line offers excellent value.

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction & Picks

• Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-117)
• Under 8.0 Runs (-118)

The chasm between the starting pitchers in this matchup is too vast to ignore. Garrett Crochet has been nothing short of dominant this season, boasting a 2.38 ERA and establishing himself as a true ace. He faces a slumping Baltimore lineup that is severely depleted by injuries to Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg. Crochet’s left-handedness poses a significant challenge for the Orioles’ young core of left-handed hitters.

On the other side, Cade Povich has struggled to find his footing in the majors, evidenced by his 5.13 ERA. He’s tasked with containing a red-hot Boston Red Sox offense that is brimming with confidence after winning six of its last seven games.

The situational trends provide overwhelming support for Boston and a low-scoring game. The Red Sox have won their last five games on the road as a favorite and are 8-1 in their last nine road games against teams with a losing record. The Orioles, conversely, are just 1-6 in their last seven games at home. The most powerful trend, however, relates to the total. The under has cashed in the last eight Orioles home games where they were the underdog.

With Crochet likely to stifle the Baltimore bats and the Orioles’ offense struggling to produce, all signs point to the under. While the Red Sox should score enough to win comfortably, they may not need a massive offensive outburst to do so. The Baltimore bullpen, which faltered spectacularly last night, remains a major liability and further cements the case for a Boston victory.