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Red Sox vs Yankees ALDS Game 4 Odds, Preview & Pick

Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia adjusting his cap.
In tonight's must-win Game 4, the Yankees will turn to 17-year veteran CC Sabathia, who has a 4.50 ERA against Boston this year. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License].
  • A 16-1 massacre in Game 3 has put the New York Yankees on the brink of elimination in the 2018 ALDS. 
  • The Yankees will turn to CC Sabathia in tonight’s must-win Game 4, while the Red Sox counter with Rick Porcello. 
  • Can the 17-year vet quiet Boston’s record-setting bats and force a deciding Game 5?

After earning a split at Fenway, the Yankees let a golden opportunity to take a 2-1 series lead over Boston slip away in Game 3 of the 2018 ALDS.

New York sent ostensible ace Luis Severino to the mound against hot-and-cold Nathan Eovaldi, but Severino was blasted for seven hits and six runs over just three innings of work. Meanwhile, former Yankee Eovaldi continued to dominate his old club (1.93 ERA in 23.1 IP), throwing seven innings of five-hit, one-run ball en route to a 16-1 drubbing.

Now it’s win or go home for New York in Game 4 tonight (8:05 PM ET, Yankee Stadium) and manager Aaron Boone will turn to arguably the most reliable arm in his rotation, 38-year-old CC Sabathia (3.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.20 career playoff ERA).

Alex Cora will give the ball to Rick Porcello (4.28 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 5.33 career playoff ERA), hoping to close out the series and move onto the ALCS against Houston.

Below, find the latest odds for tonight’s game, a head to head statistical comparison, relevant betting trends, and score prediction.

Red Sox vs Yankees, ALDS Game 4: Moneyline, Runline, Over/Under

BETONLINE ODDS (Oct 9) BOSTON RED SOX NEW YORK YANKEES
MONEYLINE +113 -123
RUNLINE +1.5 (-175) -1.5 (+155)
OVER/UNDER O 9.0 (-113) U 9.0 (-107)

After closing as huge -176 favorites in Game 3, the Yankees are only modest home favorites for Game 4, hovering around -120 to -125 all Tuesday.

The game total is at 9.0. If this were a regular-season matchup between these teams with these two pitchers on the mound, the O/U would be at least half a run higher. But playoff baseball is lower scoring baseball, on the whole, as teams don’t hesitate to turn to bullpen arms early. 

Case in point: through the first three games of this series, only one of the six starters has pitched more than 5.1 innings, and that was Eovaldi last night. Three of the six haven’t lasted more than nine outs: JA Happ (2.0 IP, Game 1), David Price (1.2 IP, Game 2), and Luis Severino (3.0 IP, Game 3).

Neither manager will let his starter work through trouble tonight, especially after Boone was burned by allowing Severino to come out for the fourth in Game 3.

Red Sox vs Yankees Statistical Comparison

Red Sox
VS
Yankees

108-54 REGULAR-SEASON RECORD 100-62
51-30 Away REGULAR-SEASON AWAY/HOME RECORD 53-28 Home
 19-11 as underdog RUN-LINE RECORD  74-70 as favorite
12-10 HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD 10-12
+229 (2nd) REGULAR-SEASON RUN DIFFERENTIAL +182 (4th)
Rick Porcello (4.28 ERA, 1.30 WHIP STARTING PITCHER MATCHUP CC Sabathia (3.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)
3.74 (9th) REGULAR-SEASON BULLPEN ERA 3.38 (4th)
.339 (1st) REGULAR-SEASON OBP .329 (7th)
.792 (1st) REGULAR-SEASON OPS .781 (2nd)
208 (9th) REGULAR-SEASON HOME RUNS 267 (1st)

There wasn’t much to separate these two teams in the 162-game regular season. The Red Sox had the better numbers at the plate, overall, and received stronger starting pitching. But the Yankees set an MLB record for home runs (despite several big bats missing huge chunks of time) and boasted the better bullpen.

The home/away splits are not helpful to bettors — the Yankees had the second-best home record in the MLB (53-28) and the Sox had the second-best road record (51-30). Neither is the head-to-head, with the teams coming as close to splitting their 19 regular-season games as possible (10-9 Red Sox).

The means bettors will have to dive a little deeper into tonight’s matchup to find value. More on this below.

Red Sox vs Yankees Betting Trends

RED SOX YANKEES
The Red Sox are 47-35 vs the runline on the road The Yankees are 40-43 vs the runline at home
The Red Sox are 63-46 vs the runline after a win The Yankees are 38-24 vs the runline after a loss
The Red Sox are 42-39-1 O/U on the road The Yankees are 45-35-3 O/U at home
The Red Sox are 21-8-1 O/U as an underdog The Yankees are 43-34-3 O/U as a home favorite
The Red Sox are 53-51-5 O/U after a win The Yankees are 51-48-4 O/U after a loss

Best Bets: Boston (+113), Over 9.0 (-113)

The strongest bet tonight is the OVER. These teams have been hitting the OVER all season (see trends table, above) and neither is sending a dominant starter to the hill tonight. Sabathia has been touched up by the Boston lineup this year (4.50 ERA in 14.0 IP), while Porcello had a 5.93 ERA over 27 innings in September.

The Yankee bullpen is supposed to be a difference-maker, but it’s given up nine runs in 15 innings so far, and that’s not even counting the two runs surrendered by catcher Austin Romine in the 9th inning of Game 3. With the Boston bats coming off a huge performance last night, getting to nine runs in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium is likely.

As for the moneyline, Boston is better value, despite New York’s dominance at home this year. As already mentioned, Boston was almost as good on the road as New York was at home.

While Porcello’s September numbers are concerning, he has a solid track record against the Yankees (2.71 ERA over the last three years) and his home/away splits strongly skew to the road this year (4.77 home ERA vs 3.86 road ERA). The underwhelming Sox’ pen will have its “go-to” arms relatively fresh tonight after Eovaldi went seven strong in Game 3.

The biggest plus on that front: closer Craig Kimbrel hasn’t pitched since Game 1.

Contrast that to the situation in the Yankee pen: four of New York’s relievers threw at least 16 pitches last night, and three (Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, and Stephen Tarpley) threw 29-plus. Those are three solid options who are likely unavailable tonight. Green, in particular, is a key weapon for Boone, often serving as the fireman when New York’s starters struggle early.

Score Prediction: 6-4 Red Sox

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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been SBD's lead oddsmaker/number cruncher since 2014. He writes about everything you can possibly put odds on. He's happiest when those things are football, baseball, hockey and basketball (in that order).