Reds vs Brewers Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (August 25)

• The Milwaukee Brewers are -180 favorites over the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday (August 25th, 8:10 pm ET)
• Milwaukee will give the ball to Brandon Woodruff (7-7, 2.48 ERA), while Cincinnati will counter with Luis Castillo (7-12, 4.35 ERA)
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

The top two teams in the NL Central play Game 2 of their three-game set on Wednesday, as Cincinnati visits Milwaukee. The Brewers earned a 7-4 come from behind win on Tuesday, rallying from a late 4-1 deficit by scoring six unanswered runs.

Milwaukee now sits 8.5 games up on the Reds for the division lead, while Cincinnati is clinging to a 1 game over San Diego for the NL’s final Wild Card spot.

Reds vs Brewers Odds

Odds as of August 24th at DraftKings.

The hometown Brewers opened up as a -180 favorite, in a game that features a low total of 7.5. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 pm ET inside American Family Field, a venue that has treated Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff very well this season.

Probable Pitchers

Woodruff has posted a 3-1 record at home in 11 starts, compiling a 2.26 ERA and a 78-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The hard throwing right-hander has allowed three runs or less in each home start this season, and has a fantastic track record against this Reds team.

Brandon Woodruff 🔥 pic.twitter.com/t1YIBbtL2r

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 8, 2021

He’s surrendered only two earned runs over 11.2 innings versus Cincinnati in two starts, while averaging over a strikeout per inning. He’s posted career lows in both xFIP and hard hit rate this season, and is on pace for the highest WAR of his career.

Castillo vs Woodruff

That being said, there is a case to be bearish on the 28-year-old. Last time out, he was rocked by St. Louis, one of the league’s lowest scoring teams. The Cardinals tagged Woodruff for six runs on eight hits, marking the third time in 11 starts he’s issued at least four runs.

Cincy enters play as the NL’s second highest scoring team, and are fresh off crossing the plate four times versus Corbin Burnes, one the game’s premier starters.

The Reds will counter with Luis Castillo, who has been phenomenal in each of his past three outings against the Brewers. He’s held Milwaukee to a single run over his past 18.1 innings, shutting them out in two separate starts.

Luis Castillo, Mean 97mph Sinkers. 😯 pic.twitter.com/v2eCpbPnmE

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 20, 2021

Last time out against the Marlins, he surrendered just one run over 7 innings, while striking out seven.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

With the exception of Kolton Wong and Avisail Garcia, Castillo has neutralized the Brewer bats this season, and likely won’t have to face Milwaukee’s most dangerous hitter Willy Adames, after he left Tuesday’s game with a leg injury.

Reds vs Brewers Pick

The Cincinnati-Milwaukee series in 2021 has been incredibly close, with the Brewers holding a slight 9-8 lead. These are two of the top teams in the NL, but the betting line reflects a lopsided pitching matchup which just isn’t the case.

Brandon Woodruff has a 3.63 ERA last 13 starts compared to 1.27 ERA first 11 starts. Woodruff also has a career 3.45 ERA in 8 career starts vs CIN. #Reds are still a damn good baseball team who is going to win a lot more games in the next 35.

— Bryce Spalding (@bryce_spalding) August 25, 2021

Woodruff has been trending down over his past 13 starts, while Castillo is on the rise. After starting the season 1-8, Castillo has gone 6-4 over his past 15 starts, raising his strikeout rate by 6.4%, while posting a 2.73 ERA. He’s recorded at least seven strikeouts in each of his past four starts against Milwaukee, which makes the over on his K prop (which is 5.5) look mighty tempting.

The Reds let one slip away on Tuesday night, but that shouldn’t discourage bettors from going right back to the well. There’s value on both Cincy’s moneyline and runline, and I’ll gladly take +1.5 runs in this matchup.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-135)