Reds vs Pirates Odds, Picks & Player Props

• A marquee pitching matchup sees Pittsburgh phenom Paul Skenes face off against Cincinnati’s Brady Singer
• With Skenes on the mound and a struggling Pittsburgh offense, under 7.0 runs presents significant value
• See my favorite Reds vs Pirates picks and prediction, plus the betting odds and pitcher-vs-batter history

An electric pitching matchup is on tap in the Steel City as the Pittsburgh Pirates (49-66, 32-27 home, 46-65-4 O/U), behind sensational sophomore Paul Skenes (6-8, 2.02 ERA), host Brady Singer (9-8, 4.36 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (60-55, 27-29 away, 43-67-5 O/U) at PNC Park on Thursday night at 6:40 pm ET.

Skenes, the narrow second-favorite to Zack Wheeler in the NL Cy Young odds, has been a revelation, mowing down hitters with a blazing fastball and establishing himself as one of the league’s most-dominant arms. Singer possesses the stuff to shut down any lineup on any given night, but his season has been marked by inconsistency, and his Reds are sizable road underdogs on Thursday night.

Jump to: Odds | Batter-vs-Pitcher Stats | Player Props | Picks | Betting Splits

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Thursday’s MLB odds paint a clear picture: the market is all-in on Paul Skenes. Despite their sub-.500 record, the Pirates are installed as significant -171 favorites, which implies a 60.2% vig-free win probability. The Reds, 11 games up on the Pirates in the NL Central, come back at a +140 moneyline price, giving them a 39.8% implied win probability. The low total of 7.0 runs reflects the expectation that Skenes will dominate, while also acknowledging Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles. Odds as of August 7 at DraftKings. See the latest news on DraftKings Missouri before launch this winter.

Moneyline (vig-free): Pittsburgh Pirates 60.2%, Cincinnati Reds 39.8%

Thursday’s game is the first of a four-game set at PNC Park. The Reds are 4-0 against the Pirates at home this season, but just 1-2 in Pittsburgh, losing the final two of a three-game series in late May.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

Skenes has made three career starts against Cincinnati, all during last year’s rookie season, and all three were on the brilliant end of the spectrum. Skenes allowed just one run total over 17.0 innings, striking out 25 batters and guiding his team to a 3-0 win/loss record.

Cincinnati Reds Career Statistics vs Paul Skenes

Altogether, the current Cincinnati lineup has just seven hits in 39 at-bats against Skenes (.179 average), with three doubles and no homers. The young righty has piled up 18 Ks in those 39 at-bats while conceding just two walks. Elly De La Cruz (2-for-6 with a double), Gavin Lux (2-for-5 with a double), and Spencer Steer (3-for-7 with a double) are the players who have experienced a modicum of success against Skenes in the past.

Pittsburgh Pirates Career Statistics vs Brady Singer

The Pittsburgh hitters have a considerably higher average against Singer (.246 in 57 at-bats) but that hasn’t translated into much power. Only three of their 14 hits off Singer were for extra bases, and all three of those were doubles. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has the best stats against Singer, going 6-for-14 (.429 average) with a double and a 1.029 OPS.

Pirates vs Reds Player Props

MLB player props from DraftKings.

For prop bettors, Skenes’ strikeout line of 7.5 is immediately intriguing. He punched out nine in each of his last two starts against the Reds (and seven in the only other), showcasing his ability to dominate this lineup. Given his power arsenal, the over (-115) is a strong consideration.

On the other side, Singer’s earned-runs line is set at 2.5. The Pirates’ offense has been one of the least productive in the league, making the under (-130) a viable play, even with his inconsistencies.

Reds vs Pirates Picks & Prediction

The story of this game begins and ends with Paul Skenes. The Pirates’ phenom has been every bit as advertised, posting a minuscule 2.02 ERA and looking like a generational talent. He faces a Reds team that, while talented offensively, has struggled against him in the recent past, batting a collective .179. Skenes’ ability to overpower hitters should neutralize Cincinnati’s primary strength. His counterpart, Brady Singer, is a far more volatile asset. With a 4.36 ERA and a tendency to be hittable, especially by left-handed power bats like Oneil Cruz, he represents a clear step down in this matchup.

While Pittsburgh’s offense is a major concern, Skenes’ presence alone justifies their status as favorites at home. Betting trends support a low-scoring game, as the under has cashed in each of the Pirates’ last four home games as a favorite. Furthermore, the Pirates have performed well at PNC Park recently, going 13-6 in their last 19 home games. The Reds have also struggled on the road against losing teams, with a poor 2-6 record in their last eight.

Given the massive disparity in starting pitching and the supporting trends, the best bets lie with the Pirates and the under. Skenes should cruise, and the Pirates’ offense only needs to scratch across a few runs against the hittable Singer to secure a victory.

Picks:

• Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline (-171)
• Under 7.0 runs (-119)
• Paul Skenes over 7.5 strikeouts (-115)

CIN vs PIT Public Betting Splits

The MLB public betting splits reveal a curious narrative. On the moneyline, a slight majority of public bets are on the Pirates, but the overwhelming majority of the money (a.k.a. handle) is on the Reds. This is a classic “sharps-vs-public” indicator, with professional money likely backing the underdog Reds.

However, the splits for the total align with my prediction: wagers are heavily skewed to the over (62.7%), but under 7.0 is garnering the majority of O/U handle (53%), indicating sharp money on the under.