Royals vs Mariners Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers (August 26)
- The Seattle Mariners are -170 favorites over the Kansas City Royals on Thursday (August 26th, 10:10 pm ET)
- Seattle will give the ball to Yusei Kikuchi (7-7, 4.22 ERA), while KC will counter with Brad Keller (8-12, 5.43 ERA)
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
Fresh off a two-game sweep of the rival Athletics, the Seattle Mariners open up a four-game set on Thursday (August 26th) against the visiting Kansas City Royals.
Seattle enters play 2.5 games back of Boston for the AL’s final Wild Card berth, and will be looking to extend its winning streak to four.
Royals vs Mariners Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | +150 | +1.5 (-135) | O 8 (-120) |
| Seattle Mariners | -170 | -1.5 (+115) | U 8 (+100) |
Odds as of August 26th at DraftKings.
The Mariners opened up as a -170 favorite, in a game that features a total of 8. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 pm ET inside T-Mobile Park in Seattle, where the M’s sport a 37-25 record.
Probable Pitchers
Fans shouldn’t be expecting a pitchers duel on Thursday, as both teams will trot out struggling starters. Yusei Kikuchi will take the mound for Seattle, fresh off his worst outing of the season.
Some not-so-ideal location on each of the three hits against Yusei Kikuchi in the early innings … The Astros are jumping all over it. pic.twitter.com/n8EOtN5PVT
— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) August 21, 2021
The left-hander was tagged for seven runs and seven hits in just 2.2 innings of work versus Houston, en route to a 12-2 defeat. He’s failed to make it out of the 5th inning in back to back starts, posting just as many walks (7) as strikeouts (7).
He’s fared much worse at home (2-4, 4.65 ERA) than on the road (5-3, 3.86 ERA) this season and KC would be wise to load its lineup with right-handed bats. Hitters from that side of the plate have an OPS nearly twice as high as lefties (.830 vs .429) against Kikuchi, and have taken him deep 21 times.
Keller vs Kikuchi
| 8-12 | Record | 7-7 |
| 5.43 | ERA | 4.22 |
| 1.65 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| .297 | OBA | .234 |
| 2.0 | SO/W Ratio | 2.5 |
The Royals aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, ranking bottom-seven in runs, slugging and OPS, but have shown some pop lately. They’ve crossed the plate at least five times in five of their past seven contests, while winning seven of their past 10 overall.
They’ll counter with Brad Keller, who’s lost three of his past four decisions. The 26-year-old has yielded a .297 average to opposing batters this season, and a 35% hard hit rate. His 6.31 xERA is by far the worst mark of his four-year career, as is his 1.18 HR/9 rate. 32.2% of the baserunners he’s allowed have come around to score, which spells trouble considering he averages over four walks per 9 innings.
Andrew Heaney has allowed 23 runs in the 1st inning this season.
That's tied with Mike Foltynewicz and Brad Keller for the most by an AL pitcher.
— New York Yankees Stats (@nyyankeesstats) August 24, 2021
If there’s one area of his game to be bullish on however, it’s his strikeout rate. He’s posted back-to-back eight strikeout performances and there’s definitely value on the over (4.5) for his K prop.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Royals Batters | Batting Average vs Kikuchi | Mariners Batters | Batting Average vs Keller |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hanser Alberto | .333 | Jake Bauers | .000 |
| Andrew Benintendi | .000 | J.P. Crawford | .500 |
| Hunter Dozier | .500 | Mitch Haniger | .000 |
| Cam Gallagher | .000 | Dylan Moore | .500 |
| Nicky Lopez | 1.000 | Tom Murphy | .500 |
| Whit Merrifield | .333 | Kyle Seager | .600 |
| Carlos Santana | .200 | — | — |
Seattle has a 25% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers over its past 10, but despite the high whiff rate they’ve still been producing offensively. They’re averaging over five runs per game during their winning streak, and have pounded double-digit hits in back-to-back outings.
Royals vs Mariners Pick
These are two of the 10 lowest scoring teams in baseball which is reflected by the game’s low total. The question is have oddsmakers gone too far? Both teams have shown offensive upside recently, and KC in particular is set up for success.
Not only is Kikuchi struggling, but the Royals fare much better against southpaws. Their batting average, slugging percentage and OPS+ are all significantly higher versus lefties than righties, and Kikuchi has had a lot of trouble keeping the ball in the yard lately. He’s allowed 12 home runs in his past nine starts, including at least two in three of his past seven outings.
The Mariners don’t have a ton of experience versus Keller, but the last time they faced him they roughed up the righty for seven runs and nine hits in just 4 innings.
Pick: Over 8 (-120)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
