San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Picks & Props for Game 2

• The Chicago Cubs look to clinch their NL Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres on Wednesday
• The Padres turn to starter Dylan Cease to keep their season alive in a must-win Game 2
• See the latest Padres vs Cubs Game 2 odds and player props, plus my favorite Padres/Cubs picks

With their backs against the wall, the San Diego Padres (90-72, 38-44 away) will send Dylan Cease to the mound to stave off elimination against the Chicago Cubs (93-70, 51-31 home) in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field (2:08 pm CT/3:08 pm ET). The Cubs, fresh off a 3-1 victory, counter with a bullpen game, starting with opener Andrew Kittredge, one of four relievers who combined for 4.2 perfect innings to close out yesterday’s win.

This Padres vs Cubs preview will break down the Game 2 odds and player props, and find the best Padres vs Cubs picks based on historical data and key betting trends.

Jump to: Game 2 Odds || Game 2 Player Props || Game 2 Picks

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Odds (Game 2)

The opening odds established the Padres as a slight -117 road favorite (before the Cubs had announced their Game 2 starter) but the line has flipped in the last 24 hours; now the Cubs are slight -110 chalk (or shorter) while the Padres are as long as -102. The total is sitting at 6.5, down half a run from yesterday

Averaging out the moneyline prices and removing the vig, the odds give the Cubs a 51.7% implied win probability, leaving 48.3% for the Padres.

The total is sitting at 6.5 runs across the board, reflecting yesterday’s low-scoring game and the likelihood of more pitcher-friendly weather at Wrigley Field.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET $1,500
BACK

BET NOW

SDP vs CHC Odds Movement

The betting market has seen significant movement since lines opened. As mentioned above, the moneyline initially favored the San Diego Padres at -117, but has since flipped entirely, with the Chicago Cubs now as short as -119. This shift of over 20 cents indicates strong money coming in on the Cubs in the MLB public betting splits.

Even more telling is the movement on the total. The line opened at a flat 7.0 runs but has been bet down to 6.5, with the under now juiced to -112. This is a classic case of reverse line movement, as public betting splits show over 81% of tickets are on the over, yet the line has dropped. This suggests that sharp, professional money is backing a low-scoring affair, likely influenced by the Padres’ offensive struggles in Game 1, the effectiveness of both bullpens, and a forecast that favors the pitchers. This discrepancy between public sentiment and line movement points toward significant value on the Under.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

Cease has a fairly long history against the Chicago hitters (98 total at-bats) which have been mostly favorable to the pitcher. With Kittredge slated for just one inning, the history of the San Diego lineup against the Cubs’ opener isn’t as relevant as it would be for a traditional starter. The top five hitters in the Padre lineup do have 26 cumulative at-bats against the 35-year-old righty, though.

San Diego Padres Career Statistics vs Andrew Kittredge

With Kittredge serving as an opener, his history against the Padre lineup is only relevant for the top of the order, whom he’ll face in his lone inning. Tatis Jr, Arraez, Machado, and Merrill comprised the first four San Diego hitters yesterday. It’s possible #5 hitter Bogaerts will be moved up in the order given his history of success against Kittredge (4-for-14 with a home run and two walks).

Chicago Cubs Career Statistics vs Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease has had polarizing results against the Cubs hitters. He has dominated key veterans like Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson, who are a combined 1-for-26 against him with 11 Ks. However, he’s been vulnerable to others, particularly Michael Busch, who has blasted two home runs in just eight at-bats. Nico Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong have also found success, suggesting Cease could be prone to giving up hard contact if his command isn’t sharp.

Cubs vs Padres Game 2 Player Props

MLB player props as of 11:31 am ET, October 1, at DraftKings.

Cease’s strikeout prop of 5.5 is a key line to watch. He has a history of punching out Ian Happ (10 Ks in 21ABs) but the Cubs lineup doesn’t strike out at an exceptionally high rate, overall. Given the pressure of an elimination game, his command will be paramount. The heavy juice on over 1.5 walks (-162) suggests oddsmakers expect him to labor at times.

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Picks & Prediction

• Under 6.5 runs (-112) at Fanatics
• Cubs moneyline (-110) at bet365

This elimination game sets up as a fascinating duel between a traditional starter and a bullpen game. The best value in this game lies with another low-scoring game. The most compelling evidence is the reverse line movement on the total, which dropped from 7.0 to 6.5 despite overwhelming public support for the over. That signals sharp money is anticipating a pitcher’s duel, as it should be given the pitcher-friendly winds in the forecast at Wrigley Field.

The under has cashed in each of the last three meetings between these clubs. With both bullpens performing well and the Padres’ bats struggling to produce with runners in scoring position, runs should be at a premium once again.

I am betting Chicago on the moneyline. Not only have the Cubs won their last four games at home and as a favorite, but some key Chicago hitters have touched up Cease. San Diego has been a subpar road team all season (38-44 SU after losing Game 1), while the Cubs have one of the best home records in baseball (51-31 after winning Game 1).

Very few Wild Card series have gone the full three games (just two of 12 over the last three seasons) and I expect that trend to continue here.